the same downshifting market that provided them with better acquisition opportunities. “I don’t see any rise in prices in the next couple of years. I see prices continuing to decline with this current environment,” said Lee Kearney, a Florida-based real estate investor who has invested through multiple down real estate cycles. More housing market analysts and economists are starting to agree with Kearney’s outlook. In their October 2022 housing forecasts,
both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) called for annual home price appreciation to turn negative at the national level in 2023. Both entities were still calling for U.S. home prices to increase in 2023 just one month earlier, in their September 2022 forecasts. Zillow’s home value forecast in September 2022 was still predicting home values to increase nationally over the next 12 months, but it calls for home values to fall over that period in 30% of local markets
(271 of 896 markets). Markets where Zillow expects home values to decrease between September 2022 and September 2023 include New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Boston. Zillow’s forecast is calling for home values to increase during the next year in Kearney’s hometown of Tampa, but Kearney is already seeing clear signs of a market downturn. “The $500,000 house is now $450,000 or less. It’s an interest rate calculation that affects
September 2022 Home Value Forecast by Metro
12-Month Home Price Appreciation Forecast
-6.6%
13.2%
Source: Zillow
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44 | think realty magazine :: january – february 2023
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