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بناء جسور لا جدران.. التعاطي مع الإسلاميين السياسيين

منذ أحداث الحادي عشرمن سبتمبر/أيلول 2001 الإرهابية تفجّر الاهتمام بالإسلام السياسي في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا؛ فحتى وقت قريب ركز المحللون على تلك الجهات الفاعلة التي تنتمي إلى الفئة الأكثرعنفًا في الطيف الإسلامي بما في ذلك القاعدة وطالبان وجهات طائفية في العراق، أو أحزاب سياسية لها أجنحة عسكرية مثل حماس وحزب الله. بيد أن ذلك قد حجب حقيقة أن السياسة المعاصرة في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا توجهها مجموعة متنوعة من الحركات الإسلامية الرئيسية وهي أنواع مختلفة.

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       Building Bridges , Not Walls Engaging with political Islamists in the Middle East and North Africa    !  "#$   %&  '() *   + "-. /#  Copyright © IPPR - September 2009 All rights reserved Arabic Copyright © 2010 by AlJazeera Center for Studies

        

    

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* ^ ~ +  ,'0 #D 0 L_ e@ 8 . "9 '” T23 L?9 [I 1922 k# + ~A_  e@ $5RC "± 'C8  "ff g  "'P %Az }- Z'C8 h ZA0- Z 56 # Vb  gPF %5 ) Qz }- G(  ¹ ( z5   $5RC k› O65 ~-h ªh' . H56 ,4F ,' iSC s ~% + :4 T 6 .  }- U5 B< 9'a 9'f( H TP V = "9 * 2R  52 V'8< = € ~-h 1930  = 1936 y F = ,'0 23 i " 12 6 T5 VB^2  " B0 " "  F m' "'C( "'- #9 @ T; \]_ . "9  1952 ‹@w ~510 * %6 B0 C a 5 U& = g%F "'B- F   ,nL9 "'C8 h . e< # %< x9 p ) "9  Ta 1956 Š( "9 1964 ( ,‘% V20 ,' iSC U^C  (Dunne 2006) z "w@ %@ %'6 #9 @ T; =5< "''0  a V µ  iS9 "   "9 G<z € 5  y 1970 .

27

%'6 k› 9'@0  TP '@0C 2RC %@ L_ +< 5Cs5' Z10- ~5PD [% H: %0 5CF E'n '0 X@0  5 i< p u:4 2RC3 2z ~F 3 0' g56  k@@0< ` "'@_ "'&• " %+263 V112 +< @^ Xw>  %0 T'2I = " L9  %F iS9 * , "9 1981 Z'B % Z' D "6  " B0 "'P   . 2 A ” 9'C1(  TP ,'0 ™y jC "'C-h ]2C3  " ^- "''0   %@ [I  "R'P ` 58 ZC56 V'R2 ™@ J0 E'n %0 kz 9'01• 59 :9 "82 2z  + k1B "  "''0  y "±   _ %5'6 .  TP › ` ZC5 *  # = [ y iS9 ! 9'02 ['S92 e@2 "  * .*q " 5< 1'S92 u:4 * /W ~ %5#  Vz % w F k( ‰F 3 "1 y "0A- "w@6 eRB2 %L  "' D "1  V( , D /82 ; iS9 Lwz * e@2 "'4D T1a = ! ` xW . @ ef!< j'9 ™y :W ~    ,  y ,a '2 Z10- ~5PD "; P VB^ +  ,'0 iD . V1 9'@0 " ^ TP e+6 0< 2z U9(2 = 0< e8P "  ~5PD  5+<  F H+- iS9 ">9- 4n z * L9³B‘ O  e+< € k65   ,6  O12¤ . "9 "   2007 ~! ™@ E'n # U,† ~F  A " * a e@  c V(l "'9  ~5PD BzF +  "'@9&a 1(23 j65< = H%A' [By = ~5PD

28

p "' * + "   X@02' 1 "8@ 3 R< . u:4 Ž +< g HF =¡z · c3      10- ~5PD "; Z ,'0 iD   i6F ,4 * ^ ~  s ` . 9@ *0   L0'!< V³( "9 1928 ` "@+ " %+263 "''0 /S  % L26 + ’ l kC .  UV- *  = 9@ !x2 »R "1 y "''0 g5 Z + G2R³P H: ,'0 "'@9&F " + . 9@ ~F G<2 TP * '& @ }$ O "'12&3 " %+263 "''0 V ^- " M 12L ~ '5< V@ "^69M G 124 * ( F + L9 Š< ` "'4a "' D " a . [‰F 3 Z10- ~5PD "1 EŽ'02 "' :  [I " %z ['S92 "' 4 "  * 55?2' Z90 ^ 56>2 "'1 "B12 "'' "0A = %' . ³5< B@ k6 :9 ¸: e'02 "'1 V'L02 ~x E¤ * "; E'!< 9@ 0 ['S92 ^< kC %' . ~F 3 ,10 ,'  ef!2 '@ HB0 G@_ 9&  "Sz = "&y "'P "'0 . Z10- ~5P˜ • sL  |^C :B4 ,'0 O5 54< Vb  9'a 59 TP '2I3 3œ exR2 * % i6 H%+263 T . 9@ z "9 Vn+R u:4  8'0 1948 UwF F V26  9 ,_9 Us5 E'n "1  . 5 [I B2- LF `

29

"1   i5xW #  a ~F 3 T23 UL 9@ "9 *  9  G0RC 9@ V'2I 1949 . 'z kF H: k65  iS9 a ‹@w "  G "'1'S92  0C3 * " Š< ~5PD "; kC ,B- , y %5  .    HB0 iS9 L26 k10< 6 "9 * 52 F € :y "-0- 1954 6 "1  ~F  m' #9 @ T; T'2I k . "œ V^z [I ~F 3 T'2I3 VB "1x T+q2 "'1  ^ L³>2 #9 @ %@  "''0 51¤ . ' %' * % w6 6  % k< m' #C ~5x  *  "6 "1x "'C0C3 " - "'6 *x /S . • * "; F u:4 *x0 2z TP "'&55  D z * : Uwa . ?0C = g%F  " y VP% sh  ¢59@< F "20 "'' 51† 5CŽ5  "1  * "z82 Bz L9 . uBzF 5 H: X86 ' ~ Z³^9- U3A4 [4F "9 u#F 2  "'B % 1964 ~59 " Œ 8  p ."  V'B9< * G <  G2R0z X86 ' BzF k0B #C ~5x . ~ ULz F "'1'< * 2 * uBzF [L2 ['< 3 `  5By "˜ j9 = U5x  h2 ^ O "'4  = %5 u@2 *B‘ H:  a " ^ (Qutb 1964) . H+- Q'0  U9x0  X :< * #C G  "x'2C V4A eI GŸ  '4&  SC u@2 G SC jŽ9# Z10- + [By .  V1 Z10- X& * GCF g X86 ~ h 7"'  "''0 "1SCa u:4 " * [L0RCF  ›

30

 h F 1’ 10  9 5 8• %L  " %- 5 "'10 Q8 0<  9 . "9 Œ9_ 6 X86 ~F [I 1966  › "#z G 2º< ~F V@6 uBzF G2R0z ~F 3 L&L2C " - "   ` Vn5  W k(  "' D 1  /5R#  e@ g# & "'4D B'2B2 V120< ` 1'S92  L'z M . * "z0 :PF  9'@0 :9 ~510- ~5PD L2& 56 = [L2; 55 j9 T12 T5 X86 ' 2 "'<1I "'' . " ^ kz2 ` " 52 ?'92z * Z10- ~5PD k9B O ^2 0'n + "' D SC * O&2 z " 5B 4@2 " +- " 5B? [c .  % V( "1x "2- %' * % ²52 3 Q'0 :4 . @ 52R 5F [9-  ' !2 * "10 "% ,4 " +- " ~F  " " y  "' D %@- Œ@8< 3 ‰F [I z k0' V  VB^ (Crisis International Group 2004) .

~5PD ";  G( ,º X86 ' Ke @ U9fa  #- . s5  * u@2 Lz5R#   _ i2 SY X8z u¶ ~F 1 " ? ghB Z . ¼ 1 3 0- %L   h<  +2< (Leiken and Brooke 2007) .

X86 ' U© ~ "n Z10- ~5PD  h< x9< p S9º ~F XŸ %L  T5   h2 u:4 x9< p 7L6'  L' ~5PD ~F [L9 e(B 2 * : ZS- . "C!1   j9 "± = %5 ~F *B‘ [‰F 26A "'‘ ~59@2 k6 HF (Azarva and Tadros 2007) ‹]9 ` " 8 *B

31

^ TP ,'0 V1  ~510- ~5PD ’ 9 ePa  0Ž&52 u:4 [  L'z E' .        * e(B j+Ž2 ,' Uwz  ~510- ~5PD ™?2 0 Gl H: Œ''w2 "8 . >- ~ S9 G' F%  [Iz  , Lz "- "' D  y ½'1c "œ * Š%a V( "'^ "''0  a S = U5x @9d 1L9B , D V1 "L@& F "'192 "   . h2< V-  5Sœ "; Z10- ~5PD "  H: H+- ~5C SC  J % ƒF  "''0  a i'6 O9‘ . X>  58^C 1 "'9L- %› " %' O651 _2 . iS9  L [x * y "1  k }$ O  " 5By O i+ @9d ,” ,'0 . * " 2 " iS9 "'_ L_ 9'02 " ‰  G '4  #D * "; U&  G

¢` ^ TP   6 ~510- ~5PD &  ZC5 u:4 T5 /R2 9'02 9'C1( . UwF ™_ "'95 ]2C3  [L9  "'C5C6  F O j?2

32

ef!< [W ~5B ~F %F $ "' 5x4 "'' "'x'<2 J@2 ,w< " +- "'0 G'&5<  (el-din Shahin 2007) :4 Œ'?2 ]2C  Z20- Z?_- * % "1  k 6 /W "90 X^ E† 2000 -  ^ "@  k+ 'C . "x2   6 ,w1 x9 :4 Lx_ 6 z % % ]2C  L'?_ 2005 W5+) Q5@0 eI ´ k  88  « 51† * 444 "6 V(‘  E¤ UwF [4 5#a * "n-  * ^ . ~5PD "; $5RC  e@ % s = x9 :4 ¿%A p  "'@I! [ y ,‘ J5  y ¼z $ ,'0 L2@0C E¤ 73 G9B‘  Š-h iS9  G2w@6  "n-  L'8< F  ^< * U^   l  [B?2 * . ´ ]2C  À&R- ~5PD 2005 "; "& = "80 Oz%  U&D *  c6F ` "'h' . "9  2007 Oz%

‹^C HF k9 " 52% ?'9< " ) [ y  y 5C '&  *  * :]2< ` 1  * %# ,' L1 .  " y *  * "80 '92 :4 *B 6 2C3 [L2 [W2 ~5PD "; UwF /  "1 U1 5Sœ . "9 :9 Š-h V1  " ^-z ''w2 u:4 [I 2005 "''0 " ^-  'R "d * "1  k9B . 1 "''0 ~5PD j65  /2  * ZS- k9B [c8' 5#  V12 ,'0 [LB0  "652- eI   "' ^2 "80 .

33

"2B 9d p 7"l6 65< * ™@ GF  EB  "'9 %  ^<  l  4%5L& ' < = ~5P˜ "'C-h V2B "' O "z " 8 4%5L& Œ'09< * k9Bl V "Szœ + LL&5< `  ?2 * " "Rn " - "- . * u:4 j' ~- %5& L2  ~5PD T `  ?2 "6%+- = " :'R92 "80 "& * |z u%5& h 120 c6  . :  "'1 " %+263 V ^- w F L9  "'nw "80 "#59- "'23 . 5C G i6  }$ T( 5'C5  ~5PD "2 2006 w H%C O ~2 %5L& * "80 "L&5  Uw "'2 * s  ~5C6  l V&F * " :'R92 . "9 :9 2004 #  ~510- ~5PD F% H52 ,‘ iS9 [L  2  A< C' Y+< 1 "' D %@-   ,n Š-h ~ A A2R p  [L1% "']2C3 "'1 iS2C [L2@8  * 2 e@2 " y (Society of Muslim Brothers 2004: 12) . ~5PD T 1 L9  +  "''0  y < V@  [c2M Oz * 5B< * %5' Oz 4S2  Œy * Z95- ZBl  a " 5L1  E'n '# * y "''0 . z "1   "'1 ,'0 2RC3 < * ~5PD j65 ~ T5?2  ‘, +  "'C1 "-  F XIF * "'Ÿ ( F . "; j65 5^ 51> . Ts  }$ [I V(  w . * ~5PD ,” ,'   E'!< "!0 2RC ( F VB^ ]2C3 "''0 "0z9- VP . g

34

,'0 ‹^9 Z V+R "1By * ~5B 6 GCF .@ "''0 "' D  a "   " ? H5 ‹^9 k 5B *1' ~%a >- * V  . ~F .@ g 19' T?1 = HŽ%A 6 "'9  "''0 [' Z V+R :4 "; Ln h  " 59- " y "8 . ~% * "w- u:4 @< [4%2 * _D . Z10- ~5PD T [I V Q j2]- "'@09   - T5 i 5  ‹3  [L2@I  ‹3 "''0 "'1 . "9 * E80IF  2007 %50 ~5PD "; #F * "9 ZCž g  G5C * Ta 54 V _ ,' “ Ch "1  Á < . % u@2 “ Ch :4 # = S9 µ 6 %123 4  "1L2 "1x GŽ&5< kC ` %2C3  ";  "RwR "'&55  a ^ * . "'f5 k 6 6 L'z ` 128 ~5PD "; BzF T5 e( V'#R< "?R# O12¤ < "'oF ,'0 #D " %+263 "'192 T5 G2 5< Š- . G' 18 ~  Q * "'f5 *B12< p j O ÂC * ~5PD 80 = %F V 7[c' T5 0- Œ2 1'z ~5PD "; j65 * z5]2 ";  \'+92 * "'f5 G291w< - "x'2C }$ ~0CD Q5 "  ' X#9- ª52 Z10- eI U09 "'4F i .  "1  kF%  O 9 @2 \'+92 :4 j65 * u' !<  L@2 [I "'h' k10< '6a Q5 T5 . }$ T(  "9 "1  c#F ` "65 2004 ~F L'z U& " : U & ‹@6a

35

e+- *5  U _ [4 7H+- O12¤ “'0C * . 9  [W 9'  [L' " ) 1 ( (Society of Muslim Brothers 2004: 32) L296 %@ 2- " y "1  i2   F 1 5  "Sz?1 ~ %a j2… Z ~2 ½ 2 w "'95 . e'>2 :4 " y  "Sz u5&5 .  6 *  Œ''w< * gPF 12†  ƒ‘ M '0  À&R- =52 ª5< * Z09¤ Z95- O9 }$ *  " "n "1L ER9 + O212< ~! Z@8 "'B  a ?2-  35 "n L2n =52 ~F G9B‘ *  ›  Œy . [L  2 U3A4  A 1  F- "'5 U<3 " ^ iBF k› "'6a Q5 " 1) O12¤ H+- . }qF /… "s  x9< p Y+2 u:4 T5 J'182 ’8P * ]22 "1  ~F ~2 * : "80 = T5#5  L´ 9 "95- Q5  0- . “ C  zP 3& fF ` gPa ‹9 * 2007 1 * ~Ž5B E† =52 ~F G26 "@6 *  U ~F  ^2  ^2 Œ2 1'z ' "1B G ~5B<  V  H:'R92 , ^2 "80 z 4+ `  *  Œ2 . * : XC&a Z- /… * 9@ :4 %s 6  ud  "1  uL^< H: O&2  '% G'z F "'65'(

) 1 ( ,   8  1  ; B>  <0    C D  * %  4% >  A E3   =A %

 #  D&  F1# @ 61&   21 / ? ) @ $ G: 4% 2 : .( 3 , 22  H *+ A E *,  E 25 /1   % 0   , =:  0 * I : *0 1A  *25  >  G (Freedom House 2007) .

36

(Brown and Hamzawy 2008) %_D X2B UwF * 32  * &R !c `  2 u:’  Ch  WP% µ “ P!2 k6  . Q8C = }$ g%F Z289 Z<4 T5 "1  * "R2… "?9&F Z  _ J T& p H:  a  L2Sz?M ]2R< "; = "@09 z5! *B kC ` 6a  € ,&• p i F 5 "L& ,R•   VR2< U°  z2P3 . u:4 * P¾ F VB^ k&< 6 "1  ~F i5' @ “ C  # ` Tx e(- j65- 2007 . @ 1 ~F  [2 6 U1 E† HF ³~F [³ 6 "1   ¼z 9  ZC56 "!0  "'   "8 G ~5B< * V@20-  G0'!< " ^ .  0- "!0  [LR65 5RRP 6 [‰F @ 1 "''0 Q5y 6 Z10- eI U09 ª52 [L2 * #  X#91 |z " 5L1  E'n X+9  "  ' . *B fF 6 * = Vn0- u:4 T5 /• tP ~F O9‘ 3 :4 4@2 L210 F "1x ,P }12  @ T2 * A< "'‘% "; . ~5PD "; j65M |'Y H: 120- 51> [4  "''0 O1 c3œ  "80 "w@6  ^2 h- ez5< " y . UwF * ja "6 * a 56 k2 Q'0 :4  "9 & ` "' E¤ ]2C "'^ "1  2008 µ 1 [L?_< QF r< * € /3° O9 . u:4 kz% ~ = "1  U&D }$ *B ]2C L2 i HF ~5'  L2'_ <  5&- fa ŒY p : V . ( a #9 . h 1

37

GŽ@C ~5B 6  y ( F wP O'820< ‰F = "80 ,'0 %L83 j9 T12 TP * 1'S9< "- (Herzallah and Hamzaoui 2008) . ` "- u:4 V1› LxL29< Z10- ~5PD "; Œ'› i ~F L6F E' "; … "80 "2- #9 / = H%A 6 "''0 "'1 * šXB- ~¢ 3 * : }qF —+ "'10 " ^- * Oz< ` LP% "1x @9 ³8P }$ .

    !" * Oa 8 V(l Z10- ~5PD "; ~F [I ~F 3 Z' D O ZR2 [LR'9+< *B‘ *Ž± H+- X^ T› "0Ž'0- "' D 1  * % %5& O9‘ 3 }$ #˜ gPF " ¶ r< . @C& F ,Rz  &5< ~5PD ,    V( "2 "'8 51† 19' G /2- eI |5 ‹ %2  "'B % ; P° XC   &5 Lz4F Œ'› V&F * j9  . "9 |5   E!< 1995 O16 L'z 2_ 2z 

~5PD "1 "80 Z0 Uwa * "51†   # , U 5F [L9 "1x ~8 i+ rB @  . #9 g%F ,'0 O1 ¨9 ~F @ "6R VB^ 1'z  T23 *  TP% = "1  /5R#  "'h' ( a *  X9x2 *B "'' z T>23 |z E' [c9&F "''0 ''w2 (Rosefky-Wickham 2004: 213) .  VB_ s k› "s #9 . XwI U'2 * e@< |5  

38

,'   U^C "'1 O 0< = "œ8 "Szœ %'6 ,” . "89-  "' < "' D 51¤ ( F F |5 V(‘ Vn0- * e(B \¦   '@0C "'h' " –@< 6 . *  G” }$ "( F  2R9 j65- G'9@<  y  ‹3 U09 Z'?'0- a ” H: y = Z10- eI O V1 \¦  ]_F "0à * "C5B- " %' "q'W " 5w "''´D "Rn8 * . E!2< " + "'‘% U^C *  y Oz ,'0 G†C   0-  # G2'6< Š- O12¤ [% "95- "' D %@- K2   "'h'5'C " %+26 . u:4 *  "'a "' D  a O |5   G^2 "'9 G0RC i H: >-  "'192 "   V( "89- "'& $ ''   u@2 '9 %   E' "'  . VR 'C 8P i |5 ~F  ' !2 , U 5F  z L2 6D 0 3 ’ ^@ 3 "'9  " Bz –@2 3 (International Crisis Group 2004: 17) . VR2 ƒ1y f  |5   x9 p ¼y U50 58- * ( F  V+Y p GCF }'4C G†C O 100 O'65<  T5+? @ L'z i6  P©  "'0'!2 Gnf  "9 Š5C V1 e_!< 2006 .  Ž "80 V#5< V-  " F i 3 G†C ~F g5  y Z9< @ .z gPF +  "''0 '? "z .   x9 p |5 ~F q&R @ Z10- ~5PD "; * u%2 [I @

39

 H%+26 ,' “ Ch u 58< [I }:  . ~5B 6 g  |5 "d 2z 5+ :4 @F F gD * ~5PD "; *Bl ` "'0A- "'2?2 "'9@ }2 "9 ^ 6F  R T>2 ,'0 O1 6F  "0 V1 02 * 5C "80 L'z H@< gPF . 3 y k65   T5+y "œ  |5   120' V4 ? @  /23 T5?2 iF  a "9x O X8 r< ¢@ Š5C "'' k0' "'12& /4F $ "1S9 F "'; = .     !   9'02 9'@0 59 Z 2R  + L_ BzF [L20< "'B % "'  ; ’ k 6 j9 * "&5 '< G&5< " _ " SC 5@ ~F V@6 5< H: X86 ' 1 Z10- " Z''y " 6R " +- " "L&5- (- " 8 = "'^ . , D @^ * V  V'& |2 z }$ [I ko 1 "''0 "1SCa %za eRB<  X86 BzF 3A4 Oz%  gPF KF }$ * %^2 *  = @^ U j+9  V'n O 2 %0 %@  "'9'80R "'w 9'@0 59 * Š( (International Crisis Group 2004) . "0'n ; Kf ‹^C  %^2 :4 d 6 : "; 2 "0Ž'0- eI "z82- xW eRB2 ( a %L  "; U L9 "R2- "' D "1  Lz "'wC ) 1 ( . k8^C 6

) 1 ( - &, 61&  # 4 620  #  (International Crisis Group 2004) .

40

h 9'02 "  9'C1( PF  "#P "' D "1  ; " +- * a 56 O "?0 L&5  L '+]_ T'2I "œ "'?'0- "'8@ "'6a = ,129< e@  "9 %5z tz /- Š1 j(- T'2I "'1 V( 1992 . %+263 ˜ "' "'0 /L2 "1  2P 1 #5+P "'0 8 H+- . Gš&F /L23 :4 Ä 6 Z95 "F ?n ZCž "0à ') %F `  ¤   Z + h1z5C  +6a "9  1997 kF `  ¤ }< "1] "' 5B O16 "„ . j9 e< 4 kwR T5› "8C  ¤ }< k( ~5x0  Z2- Z %L  * 51† :@C ~F  "#P  L C * k9F "‘ 4BzF  L1n& * 4:2 . [I + ks  }$ 1 "'4D 1x wR z4 h2< ePa 59 E1•  e8• 1xW % * Z@2 . V1^<  & G@_  T C "ff kzL2 ` exR2 1xW u:4 i U9' 2004 Ox29 kzL2 ` "9  2- 1xW "0 ši H+- Á'^ i_ 2005 RF ` ZCž "'Cž V2 * * P© Z0à "n & +]_ . _A 1xW u:4 V(l . /5R#  "'B % '&55  D "'$& 12  H+- X^ 86 .

41

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43

"9 %@ T2 :9 [By  12 ` "0'n 1956 . >- [ y = S9  T5 " * ?9 u@2 , @2 %@  ' "'9  "80 Z9 A1 e F u . ƒ‘ 10< " '2 0A- * "B@_ ¢@ G28 u$5RC }- ~ ]- ) 1 ( . ~sx2 "8 $5R9 "w > B@^ u:4 S›   ^ Œ''w2 * 5B^ H: X]29- ~-h G SY  G1 . "9 ,Rz 2002  % Z'< % = ƒ%0 1œ }- 5#a "@0C @23 Z :Pa ~% s5 U¶ = ,129 3 Us5 0'n gC ~F 9B± @#!z L' V+?2- ‹659B2 "qz * 2¦ V "'C-h "'@Ia  V#y  y '' Z129 ³ . Ce& * +6a >- j2¦ :9 G¦< G 'l  VwR G @0C 2 * 9'a  "' y " %2 iS9 , . ~F '?#  O1 "± = 2R .  1 T23 :9  +  " %@23  5By /P  *B "''0  a  "œ F ‹^9 * L9 =  a V+ p "89- iSC U 5  y (Ottaway and Hamzawy 2007) . % ~F [I "#P ,'0 L^-  ]2 @#F "'>-  a * V(l 3 ‰F 3 "'@^ g5 , 2_3 %›3 T23   [ y iS9 1S9   &  Ž› .  a u:4 k91 6 VP% 120 %5& "'B- "0A- O LzR8# ¢@  5By ) 1 ( /E %2   7;1, <> /1 J2A JE + K2A>  12 0;: L& A ; <3 6-   B@ #& %2 (Ottaway and Riley 2006: 4) .

44

 h2 R /R8#3 }$ V G2z% H: *1( ~  @^ ' !2 T5› "'@^ L2'_  , ` "' D  a = @#F ( F "'6+ ( F "  F 4@2 L' S9 2&3  • r<  "'z V6a  , g520-  "'1 . 9'20 :9 L2'@_  ' 9< L^< "' D  a F  Vz % "'C1 " 0' "'95     4@2 " V>^ *5 ez5< "'192 s´  "80 ' V^z X^ . "'F U5&a u:4 z 6 +Ca 823 "@+P 0  %@ V ^- "'9 % 35 i< ` 1x Z'C1 . Z'C1 * G' /D GR65 < V&F *  "' tL2C = 9'20 " ^  Š( *0y }- 1 ,'0 iD   5§ O'x^< . Q^ "89  GnSC V( g5 O V 2 ~F Š( *0y 2 ' zF T{ |a " #9   ~s5- % X2 ‰F VLF ~5B' "' D " 0' . ,'0 iD 5§  "12† V 5 u:4 ko 6 u:4 '< ~F [I ePa %5 TP +6a >-  @+< p 582 9'02 59  3 V B ~' 4b .    # $%" ,'0 iD 1'S9< TF "' D "@'@^ "  k( "9 k0!< 6 >-  1969 F O'8 rB @   ['2 "'95 "9 %6 .  e@ "'@_ " y u:4 k@02  #P 9'@0 ['2 T& 8 /5R#  " . % X < O12¤  ,• XCx @23 %  Lz4F " y

45

"' D " ^ Œ'@8< ['2 (Howe 2005) . " y *B T'2I  L1's ‹5<  9'@0 j+29 O  0C L_ %> = u8 e@ "'' "'+]_ %@ . "'P z• , 5By O1 "„ O'8 tP V( V'+z * ( F = L 0C = "@'@^ "  cL_ ` . :9  "80 O "' # V6F x‰ Vn+R u:4 h F 2P 9'C1( . "' D "1  [ Ž10š< H: V'+R :4 T ) "R2… 0< *  l '1" +  "' D "1  ( V1  tC3 >- ,'0  Š5C6 VB^ , . 59 ^  a Q>2 6 iD = _ V |F "1S9- [  e'>< i 2 "  "'C5C6 "';  x2 #D /23 }- 6 € . 6   3?M " y k 6 L9  ,'0 0-  tC T23   /5R+ Q?23  V^R k'9 ` L2œ Š1 . "9 L_ 1996 54 e>#  )  x2 #D Q?2 " 52 "'‘ "'@^ " y .  y  8'0 *  x2 #D k9Bl }: 4#9 . '_< ]2C  1997 = g%F  "' ^2 ~-h   "0<  W5+ . "9  1998 " y eI "'192 "   @+2 L” " 52 "'‘ "'@^ "; O L& C  L”  x2 #D eI 1 #D '52 "  @+2 gPF "'  .  ?z :4 9 5 = 12 :4 '102 u:4 120< @9-  ™^ ''   u@2 V1 "'192 "

46

4@2 #D '52 V1< 19' "'95 "' "']2C3 " 5 ^9 ,12&3 #D –< "'9 % "  (Tamam 2007) . TP * " ^- h e'>2 s´  u' !< "'> "'  "  * "'192 "   j2¦ "''0 ~0D T ,4 gPF .  "  & # Zx0- Uwa %   ~0D T "; ª5) 30000 "6 = ~5zw 5w 140000 @-  "'9  "80 uB2  L'z 2 Š( *0y - * V 5 0- " @ "8C }$ V( 6 +6a " 2z G9(< p H: Z Á'^ u%6 ,B- iS9 "'10  6 ,w- * " h  " 6D *x0 . 1œ }- Q [I "9 G0 ƒ%0 2000 u%2C V# Z Á'^ ~F 3 >- O12¤  " :& #D G<5% }1 , . X<  % Z " %C G29 Œ8< " y [ ,” eI Œ9 T5 "' lA-  F "' 1x2  U5 Y+2 >- ,'0 iS9 "'_ i ,.   [I 2_ C'F 1L   "' D "- 10 "'192 "   ~0D T "; ~¡z +6a >- < ~ 12 '&55   '1'S9 .

47

3F : u@2 }- W5@6 * "'192 " Ž@ 19' _ >-  "80 ƒF "'9  "' "80 X# L3  D T "; ks  7,'0 V1 ~0 %Y ~F XŸ H: 54 iD ~F L1's  A Æ$ }$ .z< '#  " ^- G2  kwz 94 *  G<8 }- G123 ^ }- 2C 1 " 5By  F ]2C3 "0A- "91'4  "Sz "'+]^ GIF " • iD >- X^ —+ E' "'B- ,. 'Cf : }- LP%F ` #D T5 Â9 k@fF 1 Ž  "C "'192 "   H@ "'+]^ T5a "C O "w692 @< 6 ` "''0 Vn0- T5 [4R2 %2 "' D %@1 G !< . "œ " F ~0D T * < V-  U^C = 5< "'0 * *  V+R "'C1 " "'‘% "'  ." (f : VB^ "'C * "'192 "   –@2 19' 8• ~51w- ,B'W  "( y "''0  a t$5§ , L]'^ " - "'+]^ T5 ~0D T "; VB'L2< VŸ  "'z5+ Q8 “L9 4BzF  “L9< Z i0 @ [¢Lz  "5# Ÿ ,&• ¼- 5@+<   "1  G' 5<  /4F * G'› = .      # $%" "'^ G5@6 "''0 Gnf  "'192 "    A "'B- "0A- Ll ` "'9  "80 "'LR " 52 . 3

48

i V "'  "% " 6 =  y 5 ''   G0RC "' D "'&-   V1 '9 . ?8+- u:4 e(<  a * e( ~F ~5%Ÿ * : %9 "'^P "RwR  "'^ 02  V&F * "'‘ 8P kŽ9@< "' D O Œz52< 3 ` "'&55  D LR65  G'z kSz H: k65 - "'‘ "1 (Pipes 2000) . Vn01 " 5F "'192 "   8F z VR i G^C  "Sz "' D . "9 ,Rz 2004 "„  y e "CŽ  WP% ƒ%0 1œ }- 6 ` e'>2 "-  Eà * t  *  5› V( "'+]^ T5a = "9 ^ Z&  Z Œz52 Q8 X Œ F- U8 "9 ^ Šž  tsa "'# * y &  %< "±  Œ''w2 = "@09 "8 X& . 5< H%z VB^ Q8 X " 2^- "'A0- i5LRM "&  (Ottaway and Riley 2006) . gF 6 u:4 * [4 i  y  ~%^2- Uwa '? " '2 [' w< ~F ‰!_ * ‰F ¢F ` #D "'n . T5@6 * Ç "'192 " º  Ÿ p ePa  *B _  ,‘% 0 "'+ 4@2 "CŽ-  #D 2 = "? Gn%@ O "w692 @< 6 ` 6z5 T5@ u% "'  "  u@2 . G  2 "@9 * ( F  "'192 "   k@fF 6 ''   u@2 G1 "   "'‘ U&D . z g 5Sy $ "'C1 "''0  a * Gn _ EB  iS9 3 >-  [n "'50 iSC * 'R20- [ y

49

G†C "'&55  D G2  3 "'192 "   12 Z@P9 5#F X ,'0 . " 5F  y 8F }: "x'2C ,P% ™5 V'%  y F 1 "'P "'R "@?1 - [L È º G59 ~x 0& ~-h "  0   " ^  &  ^< 26 ZC5   < r< "'C-h ZA0- "U0 ¢@ "@  ~-h % [% . k9B 6 [% " 56 "'1'S9< 6 U9 * "'192 "   "- u:4 @_  O';  O , %@ U‡F . * }:  y %R2 6 # %0R "œ L9 "'@^ $ Vn0-  ' 2 u6 J  O8 $ Vn0- 0  ,'0  x2 Uw /+ (Hamzawy 2008) . "'C-h ]2C3 TP 4ž "'x'<23 u:4 k8F 6 & ` 2002 ` Œ9- % "'192 "   %Ž  9 + * |>w L'z Ž_< . s5R  y 82 }$ [I @+' * ^ "0à "nžf 51† *  ZF Z9f %›3 T23    "'95  a [4F mf }: "'@^ g5 , 2_3 . :4 kz 6 ]2C  652 g520 “n29 u 2007 Œ?' "'192 "   ~! O %2 ™94 ~ m'  "'R 8'0 = ZS- . X0 V+ 6 e@ s5z ~-h . %   y R2  z ÆV+Y p }$ * q'_ *B  V+?'  "F 46 V 52  y T23 . "'192 "   6 2C - ` ~0D T V^z É0z G5^ H: V• [I ,'0 iS9  " ^-

50

` "'^ \9 5#a * F "@0C  T5+y   y V( $ "  "']2C3 n ‹F  L9 Š , D . "?+ * X'+C G U% 54 (Hamzawy 2008) . 1B V(l "'192 "  y "q&R- 0• ~ T5 *B‘ "'>- "'0 "  "y  . ƒ%0 1œ }- %5 [Iz TP% "''0 'y " % *  Œ'›  V1 B@- 26 "'12& # * Š +6a >- Ts  " %+ R ^2C V'>^2 X0C R . >- 5L1  @   ,  "@62-  5B? V#52- V^R X@0 V F "@'Å +- :4 @ 7L9' w F "'>- '0 L&5<  ef!2 e'>2 '@ 263 Œ %9# * 0n 5L1  ,'0 . 94 *  ]2C  k 5+2 "@0C sx2< p 2007  37 % O "C 51 % "9 2002  58 % "9 1997 . "Sz  "'192 "   ´ V a ,% * @  G2'x'<2   G<0P [I "''0 " ^- 'P . * ( F #¡ G<@8  y Ž# }$ U‰ "'' " 52% %0R "']2C3 "'1 5^ H: (Al-Khalfi 2008) . L_  5'5 / s5l "9 * 2008  &   9' F ~e * GD @ X]2C V#5 ~F 652 ~ H: Š1( * Ž  * 5  ? gPF " %'6 %   y %'6 .  g520- :4 "'zR^ * ª ~F ~2 * : }qa  Ž› V( %'  E0 T2  V( 1 "80 = T5#5 "'‘ ~4S2 Z' D t$5§ r2 "'192 "   51 * e@< " i2œ |19 "' D * " (Economist Intelligence Unit 2008) .

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