بناء جسور لا جدران.. التعاطي مع الإسلاميين السياسيين

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       Building Bridges , Not Walls Engaging with political Islamists in the Middle East and North Africa    !  "#$   %&  '() *   + "-. /#  Copyright © IPPR - September 2009 All rights reserved Arabic Copyright © 2010 by AlJazeera Center for Studies

        

    

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4D 8• :4 "'@  * "' "& [02< ` , e@ 6 " + U5w |'0< =   kz% 5LS * xL9 j9 * :]2< ` "'B % 1S9-  =a "& *B }$ 1F * ' zF T{ |a Q^  SCa G'z 59< ( F #- "'0 p [ H: Œ R ~F "' –@2< "'    "  iD T2- ." e@ % SC  U3A4 * : [4 "'B % " %L  1  }< 3 Z * " ~5B' fa h F [W |a Q^  "''0 "'192 V@20  " (Brown et al 2006: 3) . 5  y VP% 5 S9 L&  z2P &5< i5LR- :4 T5 . >-  "'192 "   Uw!z ~5R+  "'  "'&M F ,    ,'   ‰! [L2  . "   %6 ~F gC Z  ~5R9+  @I ' <  "'192 [‰! [L0RCF " ~5'‘% ~5Szœ ) " Kristinasen 2003 ( i< 19' gPF "'   F n   [0 O12† "  L'z M  +  |5  * z U5 V1› ‰F  L0RC c12† VP% "'z( 1- ƒ58 "' D [' . u:4 ‚   ƒ„ V(   O * @<   a  y  "R'9 " - ( F "' D 2- L'z ~2< ` ,&•  . /Ž " y = Z129- "# ƒ„ Q('

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5‡ kLd gPF < Œ'f5  ,'0 iD   O c6   a Q  "@]29 "'C- "2 h F V(l ` "''^ ,6 ~-h . ?2-  35 0'n  F ™ ]2C :9  "x2 i5' H@< "'>  5By ~F = e^  "ž "'B  a ƒ„ V( "?0 51¤ "''0 "?9&a O V 2 U9 h F  ‚   "   * . " 5By ~  }$ d 6 i ƒ  "'C8 h 2009 9  UwF O f%œ U& L2'C ‚  y ,'0 . "89  ,'0 iD   O ,” ,2 ~F ' 6 E' U9(2 @ L1 ! ' zF T{ |a Q^ . '# CF $ "'&•  s 0 ~'&e&% %% i "I J@C T C 3 9C T5C ²%a Q^ ~A^ Œ@a "'B  a iD   Us 92'  50& OwC ± ( F C& ,'0 ) Djerjian 1995 (. Z 21- "‘ 6 = G9 U &  :4 %5  "'>  5By Gx2< ` "89-  "1 y "1SCa * e(  @9&a VP2 Ž .z 5‡  "'P ‰A_  , . f%œ ,Rz !x<  @I "'> ceSC O "1SCa }< Z' D " z = 9 "#P [By  [Ln'2 58P  L' ‹5>w 2^<  $¯ "''0  y Q V&F * * "'# U& c8 * y ‰!_ . E'n Vb +y 3 T(- V'@ z "1 "'9  j65- ~!  5 9 s T%Ÿ ™@ J0 H+- 7%@ * F  ? 8P VB^< 5S Z10- ~5PD "80  "1  u:4 8' ~F * ³:Y "    Oz2 =

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%@ * R [W5 F X? . OR<< 1(23 "x j6522 "8@ "@0C . * 'n‰ T 92 + ~F G }$ * F5a p ") Mubarak 2007 (. G<$ 8• * ~P© %6 : 6 "'œ ' “L29' "80 = V+ ,    HF ~F "x)  —+M w< "'&P "'>  5By . u:’ ~52 [4 ~@20- iBy BR ~F ,'@8 *1z [c8 * ? U3A4 G(‘ ~F *B‘ H: H?2  7"xy [c'# . VwzF O65  ,4 "' D "''0  az  "'@_ "-  y ( F V(l ['S92 m' *  a ^ "89 L2  ' zF T{ |a Q . ~F T5 5+2 GC 5# X@0 ~F GC!_ * ,” ,'0 L'(12 O'5< HF ~58'z [‰ VP% " "'@_  ~5SY 3 * : iB? F [c'#5+P ƒ9 ' [?2< ` "'9 a [c L&a ~9   L&F  iB¡ ~8'0  jnb5 L'z 90< ` " [L@#9  ¥Ry V&F * URB 3 "'50 ƒF .  F  & W+  ~5Y ` BR ~¡z "'R• Oz u:4 kC   V1œ  V1› ~! . 9&a ~!^ "^ /… ™9Lz n% 0< fF M "''0   "'12&3  4ef!<   "(12- "89-  "'> "'9 a " %+263 —+- : 4D "?zB  [By "1SCF Z ~2 < . "89-  " 59 "?a ^2C O9 . + Q Œ2 1'z "#P "1n  9 T5   Z80z  ,'nD , .  O s52 ~1 T% "68 %+- G Q5f5- .

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" x2 6 < . ~ 7F@- m' * '_ [By "'‘ ^C  V1 Œ'@82 m' * 1n% 9B± }$ *B p . "'x'<23 12 ~F  e( "%F &5< 3 GCF ' "89-  "'y "'> g-  —+- u:4 " „  x9' '@ . * Vn4  O212< ' zF T{ |a Q^ "891z ud b5?  < ‰ . L^< 592 m › %+263 7 m' * 519 "'- _A- = S9 j' 4U%F ~F eI Q5y L 2 "'‘ "1- * Š< 1 ~0CD O Q8C  :x2 " 58 . …  U5w k8 6 "' " ^@ "'192 T5 " 4  < "0 :4 [By t$5§ "'192 ?2- [ a “ C * # . * K?2<  2 u:4 @2 '_ [By "''0 " y T†  * - x F u sF s i F Œn5 " "wL9 " "89- VP%   L' 5C ` L&P ) UNDP 2005 (. 'C8  ?2-  35 ud3 ~5B D :4   "89-  "  *  M "@8- 5‡ gPF "'F g56 "x'2C * @20- % G'z [< H: k65 6 "? "'0B '‰ = %F > $5R9  "'w9- " ^  "89-  , . % Š< = e^< ` HF 82 * % }$ Z@ 1  c 5 "'> g5 [4F ['6 ~ A * : Z10- "89- ) SC Esposito and Mogahed 2008, Pew Global Attitudes Project 2006, 2008 .(

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e'>2 "9'ž "#z    "' 2 "'B  a %D V(l . ~!^  SC k86 ` %55 ~F ' J@< j2… ,n@ 5F ' zF T{ |a Q^ "89  5B O ,2  F = T 9< ~F W % ~ $ "2- = "&  ’5_ 5 O6 . * #F "ff  '0  e'>< *  3 m' : ' zF T{ |a Q^ "89 T' "@2- "'x'<23 L2  . G'w2<  X0   "89-   V O V 2 /S ,'0 iD   Us "xL29- "'0 89-  "  T2- ". "65 u:4 G'5<  54 "'0  ePa T5?2 :4 #P  124 .   L G i6 m) ^ G' \P   2 :4 Vx0  ,'0 iD T5 *¢'29 Q>2 "  "'0 K)F ' zF T{ |a Q^ "89 . 5F ^- 12 @ @2B- m?  55- T5 '%F * X2  "&  , 1 7"' "'0CR " '´D 12 Q^ T5 _C |a Z * % = "z "'1^ B  F F * UhP "89-  "2 "''  F = ~5129 %zF O - F  lA  C = "zD ‹   g520  ~9 V0  ~1 .

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%œ t$§ V'› "% "  "'0 K)F L ³5< 10- ~5PD "; ,4 "' D 1  * Z +   , D V1 "L@& >-  "'192 "   ~%a  iD   *1 L'; j9+< T2- ,'0 RC© LR < µ 1 ) SC Stacher2008, Glennie and Mepham 2007 and Gleennie 2008 ( e@2 "  ~a Z'‘% *  0' ~%a + ~a * GC¡z 1L9 V  ' '@_ g  › ~BM "5+ " Z2 y '6%  › . 1L9  ~F 5 * GCF ' h F V(l "'1'S92 "'9 * * @  iS9 "-   . :4 ~5@8 * : Z'> "'0 9# = "@09 3¶0< 8 "1 y "1SCa "89-  V6a  '9 ud i2  2 ~5C %' "'‘ "''0 " %2 * Q5 i ~0CD . , M  › 3¶02 u:4 Œ2< :  ,'0 iD   T5+ Gf?' H: fa  '  [By  ‹3 "''0 " ^- *  ·"'&• "' ~@ u:4 ·}$ O j'B2< ~F "'> "'0 *B‘ j'   * :4 * "&˜ ¸°   2 :4 J ZA0 : '6 K( 3y " - O m( Š( V+R %5 ~5PD ";  U5w 80 ‰!^ &  "z ƒ >- "'192 "   Z10-  , D V1 "L@& , L91 |^9< ` "''0 U5&a . 4 Ow< 1 i F T5+R u: " 45&  w6 T5 "''0 LR65 * +]  i< ¹

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590  "89-  '' @3 4@2 c' 50 C'@< ePa . ud PA > "'0 ƒ%0 E • ~+R –º  a "  5+ ' zF T{ |a Q^ "89 D :4  6RP F ´ HF * %œ "#P 5+ "' O 5y ~% T5› ` "''y 65- . = "zD D L ,2  a u:4 . i2• V+z 54 O0 V+R  F . i  V'?2 U &F j2… Z jA'z  2 :4  < ~F *B‘  T5 '#52 "'x'<2 SC % G' ~5B G F T2- ,'0 iD   ud "'> "'0 .

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%'6 k› 9'@0  TP '@0C 2RC %@ L_ +< 5Cs5' Z10- ~5PD [% H: %0 5CF E'n '0 X@0  5 i< p u:4 2RC3 2z ~F 3 0' g56  k@@0< ` "'@_ "'&• " %+263 V112 +< @^ Xw>  %0 T'2I = " L9  %F iS9 * , "9 1981 Z'B % Z' D "6  " B0 "'P   . 2 A ” 9'C1(  TP ,'0 ™y jC "'C-h ]2C3  " ^- "''0   %@ [I  "R'P ` 58 ZC56 V'R2 ™@ J0 E'n %0 kz 9'01• 59 :9 "82 2z  + k1B "  "''0  y "±   _ %5'6 .  TP › ` ZC5 *  # = [ y iS9 ! 9'02 ['S92 e@2 "  * .*q " 5< 1'S92 u:4 * /W ~ %5#  Vz % w F k( ‰F 3 "1 y "0A- "w@6 eRB2 %L  "' D "1  V( , D /82 ; iS9 Lwz * e@2 "'4D T1a = ! ` xW . @ ef!< j'9 ™y :W ~    ,  y ,a '2 Z10- ~5PD "; P VB^ +  ,'0 iD . V1 9'@0 " ^ TP e+6 0< 2z U9(2 = 0< e8P "  ~5PD  5+<  F H+- iS9 ">9- 4n z * L9³B‘ O  e+< € k65   ,6  O12¤ . "9 "   2007 ~! ™@ E'n # U,† ~F  A " * a e@  c V(l "'9  ~5PD BzF +  "'@9&a 1(23 j65< = H%A' [By = ~5PD

28

p "' * + "   X@02' 1 "8@ 3 R< . u:4 Ž +< g HF =¡z · c3      10- ~5PD "; Z ,'0 iD   i6F ,4 * ^ ~  s ` . 9@ *0   L0'!< V³( "9 1928 ` "@+ " %+263 "''0 /S  % L26 + ’ l kC .  UV- *  = 9@ !x2 »R "1 y "''0 g5 Z + G2R³P H: ,'0 "'@9&F " + . 9@ ~F G<2 TP * '& @ }$ O "'12&3 " %+263 "''0 V ^- " M 12L ~ '5< V@ "^69M G 124 * ( F + L9 Š< ` "'4a "' D " a . [‰F 3 Z10- ~5PD "1 EŽ'02 "' :  [I " %z ['S92 "' 4 "  * 55?2' Z90 ^ 56>2 "'1 "B12 "'' "0A = %' . ³5< B@ k6 :9 ¸: e'02 "'1 V'L02 ~x E¤ * "; E'!< 9@ 0 ['S92 ^< kC %' . ~F 3 ,10 ,'  ef!2 '@ HB0 G@_ 9&  "Sz = "&y "'P "'0 . Z10- ~5P˜ • sL  |^C :B4 ,'0 O5 54< Vb  9'a 59 TP '2I3 3œ exR2 * % i6 H%+263 T . 9@ z "9 Vn+R u:4  8'0 1948 UwF F V26  9 ,_9 Us5 E'n "1  . 5 [I B2- LF `

29

"1   i5xW #  a ~F 3 T23 UL 9@ "9 *  9  G0RC 9@ V'2I 1949 . 'z kF H: k65  iS9 a ‹@w "  G "'1'S92  0C3 * " Š< ~5PD "; kC ,B- , y %5  .    HB0 iS9 L26 k10< 6 "9 * 52 F € :y "-0- 1954 6 "1  ~F  m' #9 @ T; T'2I k . "œ V^z [I ~F 3 T'2I3 VB "1x T+q2 "'1  ^ L³>2 #9 @ %@  "''0 51¤ . ' %' * % w6 6  % k< m' #C ~5x  *  "6 "1x "'C0C3 " - "'6 *x /S . • * "; F u:4 *x0 2z TP "'&55  D z * : Uwa . ?0C = g%F  " y VP% sh  ¢59@< F "20 "'' 51† 5CŽ5  "1  * "z82 Bz L9 . uBzF 5 H: X86 ' ~ Z³^9- U3A4 [4F "9 u#F 2  "'B % 1964 ~59 " Œ 8  p ."  V'B9< * G <  G2R0z X86 ' BzF k0B #C ~5x . ~ ULz F "'1'< * 2 * uBzF [L2 ['< 3 `  5By "˜ j9 = U5x  h2 ^ O "'4  = %5 u@2 *B‘ H:  a " ^ (Qutb 1964) . H+- Q'0  U9x0  X :< * #C G  "x'2C V4A eI GŸ  '4&  SC u@2 G SC jŽ9# Z10- + [By .  V1 Z10- X& * GCF g X86 ~ h 7"'  "''0 "1SCa u:4 " * [L0RCF  ›

30

 h F 1’ 10  9 5 8• %L  " %- 5 "'10 Q8 0<  9 . "9 Œ9_ 6 X86 ~F [I 1966  › "#z G 2º< ~F V@6 uBzF G2R0z ~F 3 L&L2C " - "   ` Vn5  W k(  "' D 1  /5R#  e@ g# & "'4D B'2B2 V120< ` 1'S92  L'z M . * "z0 :PF  9'@0 :9 ~510- ~5PD L2& 56 = [L2; 55 j9 T12 T5 X86 ' 2 "'<1I "'' . " ^ kz2 ` " 52 ?'92z * Z10- ~5PD k9B O ^2 0'n + "' D SC * O&2 z " 5B 4@2 " +- " 5B? [c .  % V( "1x "2- %' * % ²52 3 Q'0 :4 . @ 52R 5F [9-  ' !2 * "10 "% ,4 " +- " ~F  " " y  "' D %@- Œ@8< 3 ‰F [I z k0' V  VB^ (Crisis International Group 2004) .

~5PD ";  G( ,º X86 ' Ke @ U9fa  #- . s5  * u@2 Lz5R#   _ i2 SY X8z u¶ ~F 1 " ? ghB Z . ¼ 1 3 0- %L   h<  +2< (Leiken and Brooke 2007) .

X86 ' U© ~ "n Z10- ~5PD  h< x9< p S9º ~F XŸ %L  T5   h2 u:4 x9< p 7L6'  L' ~5PD ~F [L9 e(B 2 * : ZS- . "C!1   j9 "± = %5 ~F *B‘ [‰F 26A "'‘ ~59@2 k6 HF (Azarva and Tadros 2007) ‹]9 ` " 8 *B

31

^ TP ,'0 V1  ~510- ~5PD ’ 9 ePa  0Ž&52 u:4 [  L'z E' .        * e(B j+Ž2 ,' Uwz  ~510- ~5PD ™?2 0 Gl H: Œ''w2 "8 . >- ~ S9 G' F%  [Iz  , Lz "- "' D  y ½'1c "œ * Š%a V( "'^ "''0  a S = U5x @9d 1L9B , D V1 "L@& F "'192 "   . h2< V-  5Sœ "; Z10- ~5PD "  H: H+- ~5C SC  J % ƒF  "''0  a i'6 O9‘ . X>  58^C 1 "'9L- %› " %' O651 _2 . iS9  L [x * y "1  k }$ O  " 5By O i+ @9d ,” ,'0 . * " 2 " iS9 "'_ L_ 9'02 " ‰  G '4  #D * "; U&  G

¢` ^ TP   6 ~510- ~5PD &  ZC5 u:4 T5 /R2 9'02 9'C1( . UwF ™_ "'95 ]2C3  [L9  "'C5C6  F O j?2

32

ef!< [W ~5B ~F %F $ "' 5x4 "'' "'x'<2 J@2 ,w< " +- "'0 G'&5<  (el-din Shahin 2007) :4 Œ'?2 ]2C  Z20- Z?_- * % "1  k 6 /W "90 X^ E† 2000 -  ^ "@  k+ 'C . "x2   6 ,w1 x9 :4 Lx_ 6 z % % ]2C  L'?_ 2005 W5+) Q5@0 eI ´ k  88  « 51† * 444 "6 V(‘  E¤ UwF [4 5#a * "n-  * ^ . ~5PD "; $5RC  e@ % s = x9 :4 ¿%A p  "'@I! [ y ,‘ J5  y ¼z $ ,'0 L2@0C E¤ 73 G9B‘  Š-h iS9  G2w@6  "n-  L'8< F  ^< * U^   l  [B?2 * . ´ ]2C  À&R- ~5PD 2005 "; "& = "80 Oz%  U&D *  c6F ` "'h' . "9  2007 Oz%

‹^C HF k9 " 52% ?'9< " ) [ y  y 5C '&  *  * :]2< ` 1  * %# ,' L1 .  " y *  * "80 '92 :4 *B 6 2C3 [L2 [W2 ~5PD "; UwF /  "1 U1 5Sœ . "9 :9 Š-h V1  " ^-z ''w2 u:4 [I 2005 "''0 " ^-  'R "d * "1  k9B . 1 "''0 ~5PD j65  /2  * ZS- k9B [c8' 5#  V12 ,'0 [LB0  "652- eI   "' ^2 "80 .

33

"2B 9d p 7"l6 65< * ™@ GF  EB  "'9 %  ^<  l  4%5L& ' < = ~5P˜ "'C-h V2B "' O "z " 8 4%5L& Œ'09< * k9Bl V "Szœ + LL&5< `  ?2 * " "Rn " - "- . * u:4 j' ~- %5& L2  ~5PD T `  ?2 "6%+- = " :'R92 "80 "& * |z u%5& h 120 c6  . :  "'1 " %+263 V ^- w F L9  "'nw "80 "#59- "'23 . 5C G i6  }$ T( 5'C5  ~5PD "2 2006 w H%C O ~2 %5L& * "80 "L&5  Uw "'2 * s  ~5C6  l V&F * " :'R92 . "9 :9 2004 #  ~510- ~5PD F% H52 ,‘ iS9 [L  2  A< C' Y+< 1 "' D %@-   ,n Š-h ~ A A2R p  [L1% "']2C3 "'1 iS2C [L2@8  * 2 e@2 " y (Society of Muslim Brothers 2004: 12) . ~5PD T 1 L9  +  "''0  y < V@  [c2M Oz * 5B< * %5' Oz 4S2  Œy * Z95- ZBl  a " 5L1  E'n '# * y "''0 . z "1   "'1 ,'0 2RC3 < * ~5PD j65 ~ T5?2  ‘, +  "'C1 "-  F XIF * "'Ÿ ( F . "; j65 5^ 51> . Ts  }$ [I V(  w . * ~5PD ,” ,'   E'!< "!0 2RC ( F VB^ ]2C3 "''0 "0z9- VP . g

34

,'0 ‹^9 Z V+R "1By * ~5B 6 GCF .@ "''0 "' D  a "   " ? H5 ‹^9 k 5B *1' ~%a >- * V  . ~F .@ g 19' T?1 = HŽ%A 6 "'9  "''0 [' Z V+R :4 "; Ln h  " 59- " y "8 . ~% * "w- u:4 @< [4%2 * _D . Z10- ~5PD T [I V Q j2]- "'@09   - T5 i 5  ‹3  [L2@I  ‹3 "''0 "'1 . "9 * E80IF  2007 %50 ~5PD "; #F * "9 ZCž g  G5C * Ta 54 V _ ,' “ Ch "1  Á < . % u@2 “ Ch :4 # = S9 µ 6 %123 4  "1L2 "1x GŽ&5< kC ` %2C3  ";  "RwR "'&55  a ^ * . "'f5 k 6 6 L'z ` 128 ~5PD "; BzF T5 e( V'#R< "?R# O12¤ < "'oF ,'0 #D " %+263 "'192 T5 G2 5< Š- . G' 18 ~  Q * "'f5 *B12< p j O ÂC * ~5PD 80 = %F V 7[c' T5 0- Œ2 1'z ~5PD "; j65 * z5]2 ";  \'+92 * "'f5 G291w< - "x'2C }$ ~0CD Q5 "  ' X#9- ª52 Z10- eI U09 "'4F i .  "1  kF%  O 9 @2 \'+92 :4 j65 * u' !<  L@2 [I "'h' k10< '6a Q5 T5 . }$ T(  "9 "1  c#F ` "65 2004 ~F L'z U& " : U & ‹@6a

35

e+- *5  U _ [4 7H+- O12¤ “'0C * . 9  [W 9'  [L' " ) 1 ( (Society of Muslim Brothers 2004: 32) L296 %@ 2- " y "1  i2   F 1 5  "Sz?1 ~ %a j2… Z ~2 ½ 2 w "'95 . e'>2 :4 " y  "Sz u5&5 .  6 *  Œ''w< * gPF 12†  ƒ‘ M '0  À&R- =52 ª5< * Z09¤ Z95- O9 }$ *  " "n "1L ER9 + O212< ~! Z@8 "'B  a ?2-  35 "n L2n =52 ~F G9B‘ *  ›  Œy . [L  2 U3A4  A 1  F- "'5 U<3 " ^ iBF k› "'6a Q5 " 1) O12¤ H+- . }qF /… "s  x9< p Y+2 u:4 T5 J'182 ’8P * ]22 "1  ~F ~2 * : "80 = T5#5  L´ 9 "95- Q5  0- . “ C  zP 3& fF ` gPa ‹9 * 2007 1 * ~Ž5B E† =52 ~F G26 "@6 *  U ~F  ^2  ^2 Œ2 1'z ' "1B G ~5B<  V  H:'R92 , ^2 "80 z 4+ `  *  Œ2 . * : XC&a Z- /… * 9@ :4 %s 6  ud  "1  uL^< H: O&2  '% G'z F "'65'(

) 1 ( ,   8  1  ; B>  <0    C D  * %  4% >  A E3   =A %

 #  D&  F1# @ 61&   21 / ? ) @ $ G: 4% 2 : .( 3 , 22  H *+ A E *,  E 25 /1   % 0   , =:  0 * I : *0 1A  *25  >  G (Freedom House 2007) .

36

(Brown and Hamzawy 2008) %_D X2B UwF * 32  * &R !c `  2 u:’  Ch  WP% µ “ P!2 k6  . Q8C = }$ g%F Z289 Z<4 T5 "1  * "R2… "?9&F Z  _ J T& p H:  a  L2Sz?M ]2R< "; = "@09 z5! *B kC ` 6a  € ,&• p i F 5 "L& ,R•   VR2< U°  z2P3 . u:4 * P¾ F VB^ k&< 6 "1  ~F i5' @ “ C  # ` Tx e(- j65- 2007 . @ 1 ~F  [2 6 U1 E† HF ³~F [³ 6 "1   ¼z 9  ZC56 "!0  "'   "8 G ~5B< * V@20-  G0'!< " ^ .  0- "!0  [LR65 5RRP 6 [‰F @ 1 "''0 Q5y 6 Z10- eI U09 ª52 [L2 * #  X#91 |z " 5L1  E'n X+9  "  ' . *B fF 6 * = Vn0- u:4 T5 /• tP ~F O9‘ 3 :4 4@2 L210 F "1x ,P }12  @ T2 * A< "'‘% "; . ~5PD "; j65M |'Y H: 120- 51> [4  "''0 O1 c3œ  "80 "w@6  ^2 h- ez5< " y . UwF * ja "6 * a 56 k2 Q'0 :4  "9 & ` "' E¤ ]2C "'^ "1  2008 µ 1 [L?_< QF r< * € /3° O9 . u:4 kz% ~ = "1  U&D }$ *B ]2C L2 i HF ~5'  L2'_ <  5&- fa ŒY p : V . ( a #9 . h 1

37

GŽ@C ~5B 6  y ( F wP O'820< ‰F = "80 ,'0 %L83 j9 T12 TP * 1'S9< "- (Herzallah and Hamzaoui 2008) . ` "- u:4 V1› LxL29< Z10- ~5PD "; Œ'› i ~F L6F E' "; … "80 "2- #9 / = H%A 6 "''0 "'1 * šXB- ~¢ 3 * : }qF —+ "'10 " ^- * Oz< ` LP% "1x @9 ³8P }$ .

    !" * Oa 8 V(l Z10- ~5PD "; ~F [I ~F 3 Z' D O ZR2 [LR'9+< *B‘ *Ž± H+- X^ T› "0Ž'0- "' D 1  * % %5& O9‘ 3 }$ #˜ gPF " ¶ r< . @C& F ,Rz  &5< ~5PD ,    V( "2 "'8 51† 19' G /2- eI |5 ‹ %2  "'B % ; P° XC   &5 Lz4F Œ'› V&F * j9  . "9 |5   E!< 1995 O16 L'z 2_ 2z 

~5PD "1 "80 Z0 Uwa * "51†   # , U 5F [L9 "1x ~8 i+ rB @  . #9 g%F ,'0 O1 ¨9 ~F @ "6R VB^ 1'z  T23 *  TP% = "1  /5R#  "'h' ( a *  X9x2 *B "'' z T>23 |z E' [c9&F "''0 ''w2 (Rosefky-Wickham 2004: 213) .  VB_ s k› "s #9 . XwI U'2 * e@< |5  

38

,'   U^C "'1 O 0< = "œ8 "Szœ %'6 ,” . "89-  "' < "' D 51¤ ( F F |5 V(‘ Vn0- * e(B \¦   '@0C "'h' " –@< 6 . *  G” }$ "( F  2R9 j65- G'9@<  y  ‹3 U09 Z'?'0- a ” H: y = Z10- eI O V1 \¦  ]_F "0à * "C5B- " %' "q'W " 5w "''´D "Rn8 * . E!2< " + "'‘% U^C *  y Oz ,'0 G†C   0-  # G2'6< Š- O12¤ [% "95- "' D %@- K2   "'h'5'C " %+26 . u:4 *  "'a "' D  a O |5   G^2 "'9 G0RC i H: >-  "'192 "   V( "89- "'& $ ''   u@2 '9 %   E' "'  . VR 'C 8P i |5 ~F  ' !2 , U 5F  z L2 6D 0 3 ’ ^@ 3 "'9  " Bz –@2 3 (International Crisis Group 2004: 17) . VR2 ƒ1y f  |5   x9 p ¼y U50 58- * ( F  V+Y p GCF }'4C G†C O 100 O'65<  T5+? @ L'z i6  P©  "'0'!2 Gnf  "9 Š5C V1 e_!< 2006 .  Ž "80 V#5< V-  " F i 3 G†C ~F g5  y Z9< @ .z gPF +  "''0 '? "z .   x9 p |5 ~F q&R @ Z10- ~5PD "; * u%2 [I @

39

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) 1 ( - &, 61&  # 4 620  #  (International Crisis Group 2004) .

40

h 9'02 "  9'C1( PF  "#P "' D "1  ; " +- * a 56 O "?0 L&5  L '+]_ T'2I "œ "'?'0- "'8@ "'6a = ,129< e@  "9 %5z tz /- Š1 j(- T'2I "'1 V( 1992 . %+263 ˜ "' "'0 /L2 "1  2P 1 #5+P "'0 8 H+- . Gš&F /L23 :4 Ä 6 Z95 "F ?n ZCž "0à ') %F `  ¤   Z + h1z5C  +6a "9  1997 kF `  ¤ }< "1] "' 5B O16 "„ . j9 e< 4 kwR T5› "8C  ¤ }< k( ~5x0  Z2- Z %L  * 51† :@C ~F  "#P  L C * k9F "‘ 4BzF  L1n& * 4:2 . [I + ks  }$ 1 "'4D 1x wR z4 h2< ePa 59 E1•  e8• 1xW % * Z@2 . V1^<  & G@_  T C "ff kzL2 ` exR2 1xW u:4 i U9' 2004 Ox29 kzL2 ` "9  2- 1xW "0 ši H+- Á'^ i_ 2005 RF ` ZCž "'Cž V2 * * P© Z0à "n & +]_ . _A 1xW u:4 V(l . /5R#  "'B % '&55  D "'$& 12  H+- X^ 86 .

41

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43

"9 %@ T2 :9 [By  12 ` "0'n 1956 . >- [ y = S9  T5 " * ?9 u@2 , @2 %@  ' "'9  "80 Z9 A1 e F u . ƒ‘ 10< " '2 0A- * "B@_ ¢@ G28 u$5RC }- ~ ]- ) 1 ( . ~sx2 "8 $5R9 "w > B@^ u:4 S›   ^ Œ''w2 * 5B^ H: X]29- ~-h G SY  G1 . "9 ,Rz 2002  % Z'< % = ƒ%0 1œ }- 5#a "@0C @23 Z :Pa ~% s5 U¶ = ,129 3 Us5 0'n gC ~F 9B± @#!z L' V+?2- ‹659B2 "qz * 2¦ V "'C-h "'@Ia  V#y  y '' Z129 ³ . Ce& * +6a >- j2¦ :9 G¦< G 'l  VwR G @0C 2 * 9'a  "' y " %2 iS9 , . ~F '?#  O1 "± = 2R .  1 T23 :9  +  " %@23  5By /P  *B "''0  a  "œ F ‹^9 * L9 =  a V+ p "89- iSC U 5  y (Ottaway and Hamzawy 2007) . % ~F [I "#P ,'0 L^-  ]2 @#F "'>-  a * V(l 3 ‰F 3 "'@^ g5 , 2_3 %›3 T23   [ y iS9 1S9   &  Ž› .  a u:4 k91 6 VP% 120 %5& "'B- "0A- O LzR8# ¢@  5By ) 1 ( /E %2   7;1, <> /1 J2A JE + K2A>  12 0;: L& A ; <3 6-   B@ #& %2 (Ottaway and Riley 2006: 4) .

44

 h2 R /R8#3 }$ V G2z% H: *1( ~  @^ ' !2 T5› "'@^ L2'_  , ` "' D  a = @#F ( F "'6+ ( F "  F 4@2 L' S9 2&3  • r<  "'z V6a  , g520-  "'1 . 9'20 :9 L2'@_  ' 9< L^< "' D  a F  Vz % "'C1 " 0' "'95     4@2 " V>^ *5 ez5< "'192 s´  "80 ' V^z X^ . "'F U5&a u:4 z 6 +Ca 823 "@+P 0  %@ V ^- "'9 % 35 i< ` 1x Z'C1 . Z'C1 * G' /D GR65 < V&F *  "' tL2C = 9'20 " ^  Š( *0y }- 1 ,'0 iD   5§ O'x^< . Q^ "89  GnSC V( g5 O V 2 ~F Š( *0y 2 ' zF T{ |a " #9   ~s5- % X2 ‰F VLF ~5B' "' D " 0' . ,'0 iD 5§  "12† V 5 u:4 ko 6 u:4 '< ~F [I ePa %5 TP +6a >-  @+< p 582 9'02 59  3 V B ~' 4b .    # $%" ,'0 iD 1'S9< TF "' D "@'@^ "  k( "9 k0!< 6 >-  1969 F O'8 rB @   ['2 "'95 "9 %6 .  e@ "'@_ " y u:4 k@02  #P 9'@0 ['2 T& 8 /5R#  " . % X < O12¤  ,• XCx @23 %  Lz4F " y

45

"' D " ^ Œ'@8< ['2 (Howe 2005) . " y *B T'2I  L1's ‹5<  9'@0 j+29 O  0C L_ %> = u8 e@ "'' "'+]_ %@ . "'P z• , 5By O1 "„ O'8 tP V( V'+z * ( F = L 0C = "@'@^ "  cL_ ` . :9  "80 O "' # V6F x‰ Vn+R u:4 h F 2P 9'C1( . "' D "1  [ Ž10š< H: V'+R :4 T ) "R2… 0< *  l '1" +  "' D "1  ( V1  tC3 >- ,'0  Š5C6 VB^ , . 59 ^  a Q>2 6 iD = _ V |F "1S9- [  e'>< i 2 "  "'C5C6 "';  x2 #D /23 }- 6 € . 6   3?M " y k 6 L9  ,'0 0-  tC T23   /5R+ Q?23  V^R k'9 ` L2œ Š1 . "9 L_ 1996 54 e>#  )  x2 #D Q?2 " 52 "'‘ "'@^ " y .  y  8'0 *  x2 #D k9Bl }: 4#9 . '_< ]2C  1997 = g%F  "' ^2 ~-h   "0<  W5+ . "9  1998 " y eI "'192 "   @+2 L” " 52 "'‘ "'@^ "; O L& C  L”  x2 #D eI 1 #D '52 "  @+2 gPF "'  .  ?z :4 9 5 = 12 :4 '102 u:4 120< @9-  ™^ ''   u@2 V1 "'192 "

46

4@2 #D '52 V1< 19' "'95 "' "']2C3 " 5 ^9 ,12&3 #D –< "'9 % "  (Tamam 2007) . TP * " ^- h e'>2 s´  u' !< "'> "'  "  * "'192 "   j2¦ "''0 ~0D T ,4 gPF .  "  & # Zx0- Uwa %   ~0D T "; ª5) 30000 "6 = ~5zw 5w 140000 @-  "'9  "80 uB2  L'z 2 Š( *0y - * V 5 0- " @ "8C }$ V( 6 +6a " 2z G9(< p H: Z Á'^ u%6 ,B- iS9 "'10  6 ,w- * " h  " 6D *x0 . 1œ }- Q [I "9 G0 ƒ%0 2000 u%2C V# Z Á'^ ~F 3 >- O12¤  " :& #D G<5% }1 , . X<  % Z " %C G29 Œ8< " y [ ,” eI Œ9 T5 "' lA-  F "' 1x2  U5 Y+2 >- ,'0 iS9 "'_ i ,.   [I 2_ C'F 1L   "' D "- 10 "'192 "   ~0D T "; ~¡z +6a >- < ~ 12 '&55   '1'S9 .

47

3F : u@2 }- W5@6 * "'192 " Ž@ 19' _ >-  "80 ƒF "'9  "' "80 X# L3  D T "; ks  7,'0 V1 ~0 %Y ~F XŸ H: 54 iD ~F L1's  A Æ$ }$ .z< '#  " ^- G2  kwz 94 *  G<8 }- G123 ^ }- 2C 1 " 5By  F ]2C3 "0A- "91'4  "Sz "'+]^ GIF " • iD >- X^ —+ E' "'B- ,. 'Cf : }- LP%F ` #D T5 Â9 k@fF 1 Ž  "C "'192 "   H@ "'+]^ T5a "C O "w692 @< 6 ` "''0 Vn0- T5 [4R2 %2 "' D %@1 G !< . "œ " F ~0D T * < V-  U^C = 5< "'0 * *  V+R "'C1 " "'‘% "'  ." (f : VB^ "'C * "'192 "   –@2 19' 8• ~51w- ,B'W  "( y "''0  a t$5§ , L]'^ " - "'+]^ T5 ~0D T "; VB'L2< VŸ  "'z5+ Q8 “L9 4BzF  “L9< Z i0 @ [¢Lz  "5# Ÿ ,&• ¼- 5@+<   "1  G' 5<  /4F * G'› = .      # $%" "'^ G5@6 "''0 Gnf  "'192 "    A "'B- "0A- Ll ` "'9  "80 "'LR " 52 . 3

48

i V "'  "% " 6 =  y 5 ''   G0RC "' D "'&-   V1 '9 . ?8+- u:4 e(<  a * e( ~F ~5%Ÿ * : %9 "'^P "RwR  "'^ 02  V&F * "'‘ 8P kŽ9@< "' D O Œz52< 3 ` "'&55  D LR65  G'z kSz H: k65 - "'‘ "1 (Pipes 2000) . Vn01 " 5F "'192 "   8F z VR i G^C  "Sz "' D . "9 ,Rz 2004 "„  y e "CŽ  WP% ƒ%0 1œ }- 6 ` e'>2 "-  Eà * t  *  5› V( "'+]^ T5a = "9 ^ Z&  Z Œz52 Q8 X Œ F- U8 "9 ^ Šž  tsa "'# * y &  %< "±  Œ''w2 = "@09 "8 X& . 5< H%z VB^ Q8 X " 2^- "'A0- i5LRM "&  (Ottaway and Riley 2006) . gF 6 u:4 * [4 i  y  ~%^2- Uwa '? " '2 [' w< ~F ‰!_ * ‰F ¢F ` #D "'n . T5@6 * Ç "'192 " º  Ÿ p ePa  *B _  ,‘% 0 "'+ 4@2 "CŽ-  #D 2 = "? Gn%@ O "w692 @< 6 ` 6z5 T5@ u% "'  "  u@2 . G  2 "@9 * ( F  "'192 "   k@fF 6 ''   u@2 G1 "   "'‘ U&D . z g 5Sy $ "'C1 "''0  a * Gn _ EB  iS9 3 >-  [n "'50 iSC * 'R20- [ y

49

G†C "'&55  D G2  3 "'192 "   12 Z@P9 5#F X ,'0 . " 5F  y 8F }: "x'2C ,P% ™5 V'%  y F 1 "'P "'R "@?1 - [L È º G59 ~x 0& ~-h "  0   " ^  &  ^< 26 ZC5   < r< "'C-h ZA0- "U0 ¢@ "@  ~-h % [% . k9B 6 [% " 56 "'1'S9< 6 U9 * "'192 "   "- u:4 @_  O';  O , %@ U‡F . * }:  y %R2 6 # %0R "œ L9 "'@^ $ Vn0-  ' 2 u6 J  O8 $ Vn0- 0  ,'0  x2 Uw /+ (Hamzawy 2008) . "'C-h ]2C3 TP 4ž "'x'<23 u:4 k8F 6 & ` 2002 ` Œ9- % "'192 "   %Ž  9 + * |>w L'z Ž_< . s5R  y 82 }$ [I @+' * ^ "0à "nžf 51† *  ZF Z9f %›3 T23    "'95  a [4F mf }: "'@^ g5 , 2_3 . :4 kz 6 ]2C  652 g520 “n29 u 2007 Œ?' "'192 "   ~! O %2 ™94 ~ m'  "'R 8'0 = ZS- . X0 V+ 6 e@ s5z ~-h . %   y R2  z ÆV+Y p }$ * q'_ *B  V+?'  "F 46 V 52  y T23 . "'192 "   6 2C - ` ~0D T V^z É0z G5^ H: V• [I ,'0 iS9  " ^-

50

` "'^ \9 5#a * F "@0C  T5+y   y V( $ "  "']2C3 n ‹F  L9 Š , D . "?+ * X'+C G U% 54 (Hamzawy 2008) . 1B V(l "'192 "  y "q&R- 0• ~ T5 *B‘ "'>- "'0 "  "y  . ƒ%0 1œ }- %5 [Iz TP% "''0 'y " % *  Œ'›  V1 B@- 26 "'12& # * Š +6a >- Ts  " %+ R ^2C V'>^2 X0C R . >- 5L1  @   ,  "@62-  5B? V#52- V^R X@0 V F "@'Å +- :4 @ 7L9' w F "'>- '0 L&5<  ef!2 e'>2 '@ 263 Œ %9# * 0n 5L1  ,'0 . 94 *  ]2C  k 5+2 "@0C sx2< p 2007  37 % O "C 51 % "9 2002  58 % "9 1997 . "Sz  "'192 "   ´ V a ,% * @  G2'x'<2   G<0P [I "''0 " ^- 'P . * ( F #¡ G<@8  y Ž# }$ U‰ "'' " 52% %0R "']2C3 "'1 5^ H: (Al-Khalfi 2008) . L_  5'5 / s5l "9 * 2008  &   9' F ~e * GD @ X]2C V#5 ~F 652 ~ H: Š1( * Ž  * 5  ? gPF " %'6 %   y %'6 .  g520- :4 "'zR^ * ª ~F ~2 * : }qa  Ž› V( %'  E0 T2  V( 1 "80 = T5#5 "'‘ ~4S2 Z' D t$5§ r2 "'192 "   51 * e@< " i2œ |19 "' D * " (Economist Intelligence Unit 2008) .

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