Muoio: We expect both existing home sales and prices to rise over the course of 2017. The keys for underlying demand remain strong: a firm labor market is adding jobs at a healthy clip, unemployment is reaching cyclical lows, and wage growth continues to progress. Nonetheless, tight housing inventory remains a constraining factor limiting stronger sales growth, while also pushing home prices out of range for some households. Higher mortgage rates could also be a constraint on sales and pricing as affordability continues to deteriorate, though the rise while dampening affordability should not make housing prohibitively expensive.
Gardner: Existing home sales should rise to 5.548 million units in 2017. I am forecasting existing home prices to rise to a median of $242,700 in 2017 — an increase of 4.5 percent from 2016. Villacorta: Existing home sales and prices will continue to climb in high- demand housing markets like Dallas, Nashville, and Denver during 2017. Price growth in these increasingly popular areas will be able to sustain a potential drop in demand in the event of an interest rate increase and remain in the black for the year.
However, markets that are widely considered to be already overheated
2) What is your outlook for existing home sales and prices in 2017 (up, flat, or negative)? Yun: Existing home sales will roughly remain the same as in 2016, which was a decent year. Higher mortgage rates are a clear negative, but it is hoped that increases are manageable and nothing alarming with the 30-year fixed rate not moving above 5 percent. The impact of higher rates will partly be neutralized by expected 2 million net new job additions and higher wage growth. Existing home price will rise by around 4 percent in 2017 — there is still a housing shortage. Smoke: The existing home market will be up but only moderately compared to the gains enjoyed in recent years. Our initial 2017 forecast for the existing home market expects 1.9 percent growth in sales and 3.9 percent growth in the median existing home price.
Annualized Commerce Dept. New Home Sales New Home Sales, Exis0ng Home Sales & Foreclosure Filings Annualized Commerce Dept. New Home Sales Annualized NAR ExisKng Home Sales Annualized NAR Existing e Sales NEW HOME SALES, EXISTING HOME SALES & FORECLOSURE FILINGS
ATTOM Properties wih oreclo ure Filings
RealtyTrac ProperKes with Foreclosure Filings
400,000 4 0, 0
10, 0 ,
350,000 350, 0
300,000 3 0, 0
250,000 250, 0
200,000 2 0, 0
150,000 150, 0
100,000 1 0, 0
ATTOM Data Solutions • P6
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