atypical markets still adhere to typical seasonal patterns Active listings have climbed significantly across Greater Victoria, but a closer look shows considerable variation in the pace of growth across its 19 sub-regions. As it turns out, the prevalence of condos is a distinguishing factor.
Colwood (+22% to 117), Oak Bay (+23% to 111), and North Saanich (+28% to 77) all saw inventory grow less than the Greater Victoria average. Are there any characteristics that might determine whether a sub-region has seen above or below average inventory growth? Intuitively, home type composition matters. The sub-regions that have seen the largest year-over-year growth in active listings also have the most condo inventory. For example, the share of condo listings ranged from 45% in Sidney to 84% in Victoria West. In contrast, among the sub-regions that have seen below average inventory growth, the share of active condo listings ranged from 0% in Metchosin to 18% in Colwood. Highlands and Sooke were two notable outliers. Detached homes account for 95% or more of total inventory in these two sub- regions, yet inventory was up 70% and 63% year-over- year, respectively. On the sales front, Greater Victoria was the only of BC’s three largest housing markets to see a year-over- year increase with MLS sales up 9% to 619 in July (versus declines of 6% in the Vancouver Region and 8% in the Central Okanagan). That’s a small bright spot considering that activity was still 16% below the prior 10-year July average (of 734), but it’s a sign that buyers are still shopping despite elevated borrowing costs. Relative to last year, they have a lot more options to consider.
Housing markets are incredibly seasonal. So much so that even in the midst of generationally high interest rates, extraordinary government intervention, and uncomfortably cool sales activity, they still adhere to certain seasonal rules and patterns. Looking at the seasonality of resale inventory in Greater Victoria over the past decade, active listings typically reach their high water mark around the middle of the year before plateauing and then declining through the fall and into winter. Now that we’ve passed the midpoint of 2024, let’s put Greater Victoria’s inventory story into context and assess how inventory changes vary at the sub-regional level. Active MLS listings of 2,698 at the end of July were down 3% month-over-month from a year-to-date high of 2,791 in June. Though this was a slightly bigger drop than the typical June-to-July decline of 0.6%, inventory was 27% above the prior 10-year July average of 2,121. As discussed in recent Victoria rennie reviews, rising condo inventory is responsible for much of this increase, driven in part by a suite of government policies that have disproportionately
affected condo investors (e.g., the increase to the capital gains inclusion rate, the short-term rental ban, and changes to the Residential Tenancy Act). Condo inventory was 53% above its prior 10-year July average versus 23% for townhomes and 18% for detached homes. The ascent to such elevated inventory has been rather abrupt. Compared to July of last year, inventory has climbed 42% across Greater Victoria, led by a 71% year-over-year increase in condo inventory. Townhome inventory has climbed by a lower (but still significant) 38%, and detached home listings were up 30%. Wide variations in inventory changes also exist across Greater Victoria’s 19 sub-regions. Sidney has seen active listings rise the most, up 86% year-over-year to 93. Victoria (+57% to 494), Victoria West (+56% to 61), and Esquimalt (+48% to 77) have also seen inventory rise faster than the regional average (of 42%). In contrast, active listings in Metchosin were down 5% year-over-year to 21 (the only sub-region to see an annual decline), and Malahat (+7% to 137),
3 Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of November August 6, 2024. All data from the Victoria Real Estate Board & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E.
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