it ’ s spring in kelowna , but sales are in hibernation A large rise in total sales in April wasn’t enough to mask broader softness in the Central Okanagan market, which has been especially weak from a per-capita perspective. The flipside is above average inventory and a range of options that buyers haven’t seen in years.
the first four months of the year. That was 8% below the same period in 2020 on a per-capita basis and 20% below 2013, even though those two years saw fewer sales (albeit slightly) than 2024 on an absolute basis. The flipside of sluggish sales activity has been a robust expansion of inventory. The region saw 3,460 new listings hit the market between January and April, bringing total active listings to 2,640 at the end of April. That marked a 45% increase from April 2023 (1,820 listings) and was 35% above the prior-decade average for the month (1,959 listings). All-in-all, there were 7.0 months of inventory (MOI), up from the prior-decade April average of 4.7 and well above anything seen in more recent memory (4.2 in April 2023, 2.4 in April 2022, and 1.4 in April 2021). So, while it has been an exceptionally slow start to the year for the Central Okanagan housing market (especially when viewed through a per- capita lens), inventory levels have built up to more healthy levels not seen in several years. Those locals looking to upgrade their current living situation and those looking to become locals will be pleased to see a wide range of options to choose from.
There were some signs of improving sales momentum in the Central Okanagan in April, but looking at activity levels more holistically points to continued softness across the region. For starters, the 377 MLS sales last month represented a 26% increase from March’s 300 sales and was well north of the typical March- to-April increase of 5% observed over the past 10 years. However, when considering how limited activity has been so far through 2024, a higher-than-normal 26% jump in sales was nowhere near enough to dig the market out of its prolonged slump: last month’s sales were down 12% from April 2023 (429 sales) and were 24% below the past-decade April average (499 sales). Zooming out beyond just April really puts into context the current state of the market. Total sales from January to April of this year totalled 1,065, only slightly outpacing the 1,030 sales through the first four months of 2020 (remember that sales ground to a near
halt in April 2020?). In fact, excluding the onset of the pandemic, you’d have to go back to 2013 to find a slower first four months of the year (1,001 sales). When considering average January-to-April sales of 1,570 over the past 10 years, 2024 is 32% behind pace. It’s notable that while a look at the change in the absolute number of sales year-to-year paints a rather glum picture for activity so far in 2024, Kelowna has been one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in Canada in recent years. Not surprising, that; as we know, the region offers impressive beauty and a wide range of activities (think powder-covered ski slopes and lakeside vineyards), which partly explains such robust growth. According to BC Stats, the population in the Central Okanagan swelled by nearly 60,000 between 2013-2023 to reach 247,216. Perhaps we’ll save the details for a future article, but some quick back-of-the- envelope math shows that year-to-date sales came in at 4.31 per 1,000 residents through
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