Investor Chatter (CONT’D FROM PAGE 5)
Instead, they negotiate directly with producers and feed those prices into should-cost models. The formula is straightforward: paper cost divided by 0.65 yields a target box price. By that math, major CPG brands expect box pric- es of $1,150–$1,200, compared with an industry average of
tificial against a backdrop of weak demand. So why push for higher prices? Executive pay struc- tures may help explain it. Compensation at major integrat-
ed producers is closely tied to stock price, return on in- vested capital and EPS — all metrics that rise when paper prices do. Yet box buyers are more sophisticated than ever. Many now reject the benchmark index, which sits about $200 a ton above actual market levels in the US and Europe.
$1,300 last year, according to Fibre Box Association data. Independents are the quiet winners, able to secure real discounts on containerboard while passing through index-based increases to customers who “buy the bench- mark.” That spread supports healthier margins, reinvest-
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October 6, 2025
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