Lives or Livelihoods: A Configurational Perspective of COVID-19 Policies Jomon A. Paul, Xinfang Wang, and Aniruddha Bagchi Coles Research Symposium on Homeland Security, Special Issue, SIFALL22-01, October 2022
OVERVIEW
We adopt a configurational perspective to analyze the complexity of COVID-19 policies, which must balance public health and economic outcomes. Our fuzzy-set, qualitative, comparative analysis (fsQCA) of 1,543 cases from a variety of sources supports nonlinear combinations of the policies that led to the success or failure of health and economic outcomes. Among our noteworthy findings, first, each of the four outcomes can be achieved via different pathways. For instance, three configurations lower COVID-19 death rates, one suggesting an all-in approach in the presence of all causal conditions, while another addresses a combination of present and absent conditions. Second, the cause/effect relationship is asymmetric: school closures can both lower and raise COVID-19 death rates, depending on the demand and supply policies undertaken Results provide policymakers with a complementary and substitutive strategy for navigating a complex, unstable environment. They gain valuable guidance on protecting both lives and livelihoods, an ethical dilemma beyond health crisis settings. Our study framework applies to many policy decisions that involve weighing the protection of human life against economic loss.
36 | Coles Research Symposium
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