End users: Time to learn and experiment For end users of e-fuels, such as shipping and aviation operators, this is a time to test and learn the market, preparing for when mandates and sustainability targets mature. Companies need to begin developing reliable e-fuel sources compatible with their engines, ensuring that suppliers can deliver the required volume and quality. Off- take agreements tied to unproven technology developers and uncertain supply could trigger penalties under future regulations. Operators need to weigh the pros and cons of partnering or investing in their own supply assets. Rather than waiting for mandates to take effect, smart players are moving ahead with voluntary participation to learn the market and de-risk their future supply. They can begin purchasing small quantities and diversifying their risk across multiple suppliers and geographies. In this way, they can use their purchasing power to push for proven, bankable technology and secure supply sources. DHL Express, for instance, recently signed an agreement with Phillips 66 to take 240,000 metric tons of sustainable aviation fuel over three years.⁶ RNG vs e-fuels market trajectory $25B Grow by two-thirds to RNG’s rise offers a useful precedent: As mandates and net‑zero commitments tighten, e‑fuels are projected to expand from $16B today to $155B by 2034, echoing RNG’s shift from scepticism to scale. by 2032
$16B + e-fuels
$155B
this year (2026)
by 2034
Pushing through uncertainty Ongoing policy uncertainty regarding e-fuel adoption is inevitable. The clearest example of this is the IMO’s October 2025 decision to delay the implementation of its Net Zero Framework, which would have imposed mandates to incentivise the shipping industry to switch to cleaner fuels by 2028.⁷ Despite this, the long-term direction of the e-fuels market is not in doubt. The same forces that propelled RNG from obscurity to a market size of more than $15 billion are gathering behind e-fuels. What remains uncertain is who will be positioned to lead when the market arrives at scale. Both developers and users can gain a valuable edge by moving early and developing the expertise, facilities and experience before mandates take hold. But in doing so, it’s crucial to be highly selective at every step, building strong relationships, securing resources and taking no chances with engineering or technology.
Early movers “locking supply” The strongest signal isn’t the forecast — it’s the paperwork: first-of-kind capacity (42,000 t/yr e‑methanol) and long-dated offtakes (240,000 t SAF over three years) show buyers moving early to secure scarce supply. 42,000 240,000 Denmark e-methanol plant DHL
C$4B TES Canada
metric tons over three years
project
metric tons
References 1. Custom Market Insights. 2026. “Renewable Natural Gas Market Size, Trends and Insights By Source (Agricultural RNG Resource, Sewage & Wastewater RNG Resource), By Application (Electricity Generation, Vehicle Fuel), and by Region - Global Industry Overview, Statistical Data, Competitive Analysis, Share, Outlook, and Forecast 2024–2033.” January 16. https://www.custommarketinsights.com/report/renewable-natural-gas-market/ 2. Fortune Business Insights. 2025. “E-Fuel Market Size, Share & Forecast Analysis Report 2034.” https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/e-fuel-market-109586 3. Reuters. 2025. “World’s First Commercial-Scale E-Methanol Plant Opens in Denmark.” May 15. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/worlds- first-commercial-scale-e-methanol-plant-opens-denmark-2025-05-13/ 4. Reuters. 2023. “Canada Firm to Build C$4 bln Green Hydrogen Project in Quebec–
Source.” November 10. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/ canada-firm-build-c4-bln-green-hydrogen-project-quebec-source-2023-11-09/ 5. The Canadian Press. 2025. “StormFisher’s Bargain Acquisition of Recyclage Carbone Varennes Will Prevent a Total Loss.” October 24. https://montreal.citynews. ca/2025/10/24/stormfishers-bargain-acquisition-rcv/ 6. DHL Group. 2025. “DHL Express and Phillips 66 Advance Sustainable Aviation Fuel Usage in the U.S. through Multi-Year Agreement.” Press release, November 18. https://group.dhl.com/en/media-relations/press-releases/2025/dhl-express-and- phillips-66-advance-sustainable-aviation-fuel-usage.html 7. Reuters. 2025. “Analysis: Shipping Climate Plan Delay Could Sink Clean Fuel Projects.” October 27. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/analysis-shipping- climate-plan-delay-could-sink-clean-fuel-projects--ecmii-2025-10-27/
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