What does long-term value look like when the future is becoming harder to predict? As infrastructure leaders navigate accelerating change across energy, water, communities and industry, Nexus Magazine explores how strategic foresight can help organisations make better decisions today. From electrification and resource security to legacy assets and investment priorities, we examine why the most valuable infrastructure will be the infrastructure that continues to hold its value as the world changes around it.
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Edition 1
Achieving absolute efficiency
Welcome to the first edition Our goal is to bring you deep insights and diverse viewpoints that inform the global conversation on how to make businesses and society sustainable for generations to come. Sonia Adams, Chief Client Officer E ach quarter, we draw on the vast experience of thought leaders, innovators and groundbreakers across industry, partners and clients to explore the most pressing issues. Prioritising data-backed analysis and practicality, Nexus shares best practices and offers real solutions to help you navigate an ever more complex world. Indeed, the path forward for businesses has rarely felt so uncertain. Economic and political disruptions have continued to cloud the outlook across industries this year, forcing organisations to recalibrate their strategies to adjust to a rapidly shifting playing field.
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Contents Introduction............................................................................. 3 A new sustainability paradigm............................................. 4 Ditching decarbonisation?................................................... 7 Can green ammonia solve the data centre energy dilemma?.................................... 10 From risk-aversion to enhancing value.......................... 13 How natural ventilation helps future-proof buildings and control costs............................................... 16 Seizing the opportunity of England’s new biodiversity rules...................................... 19 The key to sustainable transformation.......................... 22 How AMI is reshaping water utilities from the inside out.................................... 25 Why AI is a powerful ally for city leaders....................... 29 About the authors................................................................ 33
Yet despite this, there is an enduring certainty on which leaders can ground their decisions – the intelligent and efficient use of resources will continue to give their companies a core competitive advantage. Our top story argues that it’s time for leaders to shift to a mindset of Absolute Efficiency – a theme that informs all the insights. Absolute Efficiency means leveraging the use of resources to control costs, protect profits, drive innovation and build resilience, regardless of which political winds are blowing. You will read how performing due diligence on energy infrastructure, for example, an evidence-based evaluation of not only the risks but also the growth opportunities becomes a strategic tool for unlocking value. Guest contributor Jane Nethersole, Programme Director at Climate Action, joins GHD’s decarbonisation leaders in sharing how heavy industry is transitioning for profitability and competitiveness. Ultimately, Absolute Efficiency is a mindset that demands leaders rethink business as usual. Rather than a side project or an add-on, sustainable transformation needs to be treated as core to growth and woven into companies’ long-term strategic planning. It’s an approach that applies equally well to city leaders who are grappling with aging infrastructure and rising citizen demands for better services. The most innovative municipalities are starting to apply the power of AI to understand their cities’ needs better. This is an exciting opportunity to embrace the positive side of uncertainty – leaders have a license to experiment, innovate and break out of traditional silos to fuel growth and build long-term resilience.
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A new sustainability paradigm Absolute Efficiency
Stop with the buzzwords – businesses need to prioritise the productive use of resources because it makes long-term economic sense. Call it Absolute Efficiency. It’s a powerful concept that leaders can lean into at a time when many of the terms and concepts around sustainability have become politically charged and hostage to electoral shifts. It recognises that despite these swings, it’s not time to step away from demonstrating credible, economically-minded progress. Business leaders worldwide agree. According to the Business Breakthrough Barometer 2025¹, 9 out of 10 executives maintained or increased their investments in climate action and achieving emissions targets over the past year. Absolute Efficiency means maximising the productive use of energy, water and other resources across every part of a business. It recognises that true sustainability isn’t about checking boxes or reading the political weather vanes. Unlike ESG jargon that may come and go, it represents an enduring lodestar for organisations because it is based entirely on evidence, science and measurable business impact. This is the mindset shift that businesses need in these uncertain times – one that views sustainability as a competitive advantage rather than a compliance requirement. Absolute Efficiency reframes sustainability as a smart business optimisation strategy to control costs, protect profits, drive innovation and build resilience. Adopting an Absolute Efficiency strategy can lower companies’ climate change risks, reduce exposure to scarce resources and provide insulation against rising costs. That can include reducing waste by reprocessing it for new uses, boosting commercial outcomes while cutting inputs and increasing the value of assets over time.
Tai Hollingsbee, Head of Sustainability, Asia Pacific
Economic sense A report² released in June by the Paris-based International Energy Agency found that energy efficiency helps companies compete amid high costs, growing resource demand and escalating trade pressures. The benefits, which can be replicated in efficiencies in construction materials, water and other resources, range from boosting profitability to job creation. Despite this, the report notes that industrial efficiency gains have slowed recently as companies encounter barriers such as upfront costs and workforce constraints. That’s why bold, deliberate planning on efficiency across the energy, water and materials that companies use is so vital. Take accounting for the carbon costs of a product, for example. Incorporating those costs into 3-, 5- and 10-year forecasts may not be required by regulations but it remains an effective way to protect profit margins and avoid surprise costs down the line. Similarly, investing in energy-saving efforts for facilities today can help avoid future fines and legal costs, while also supporting the long-term value of assets by reducing resource costs. Reputational integrity and trust are also valuable assets, both of which can be strengthened by sustainability initiatives, such as whole- of-life carbon consideration in construction projects.
Thinking in systems Absolute Efficiency calls for moving beyond isolated process improvements to thinking in terms of broader systems. That means taking steps that recognise and take advantage of the wider connections among circular economies, communities and supply chains. The European Union is transitioning toward a fully circular economy, where waste is minimised and materials are kept in use for as long as possible, with a target completion date³ of 2050. But companies shouldn’t sit around waiting for the next regulation. For instance, rather than transporting waste to landfills at ever-increasing costs, companies can find partners who will utilise it as a raw material, thereby turning a liability into an asset. Systemic thinking means identifying opportunities for shared value that can reduce costs and create new revenue streams. For example, instead of transferring heat outdoors, could large-scale data centres capture and sell the energy to a nearby hospital or laboratory? Similarly, carbon dioxide generated in the manufacture of cement factories can be repurposed as a building block in other products, such as sustainable aviation fuels. Taking the output of one system as the input of another – that’s Absolute Efficiency. Forward-thinking organisations are already using “material passports” – digital records of a product’s or project’s composition and potential reuse – to help them think about the life cycle of materials from the design phase onward. They are forming recycled, reconstituted and recovered material banks with customers eager to trim costs.
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Ditching decarbonisation? Transitioning for profitability and competitiveness.
New tools, new possibilities New technologies are opening up ways for businesses to achieve Absolute Efficiency through more intelligent design and planning. Consider the emergence of “mixed reality” headsets, such as the Apple Vision Pro. This novel device, which overlays data and digital content onto real-world surroundings, allows professionals to literally see how efficiencies can be integrated into projects. Whether they’re designing a new retail store or refurbishing ageing infrastructure, project managers can strap on the device to observe how different materials, lighting and temperature control systems can change spaces and influence energy use. They can do so while streaming real-time data on energy performance, enabling them to model scenarios before committing to a budget. This and similar tools are democratising planning and decision-making around efficiency. Managers no longer need to be skilled engineers trained in the science of efficiency – or even understand kilowatt-hours – to make sound business decisions on sustainability. The objective is not to replace the role of scientists, technicians and consultants. Rather, it’s about empowering teams to seize opportunities and determine the most effective use of resources for projects.
9/10 executives maintained/increased climate investment (2025 survey)
Charlotte Gray, Consultant, UK Energy Solutions
Steel, cement, chemicals, aviation, shipping and heavy transport industries that seem hardest to decarbonise are also sitting on the biggest opportunities – with early-movers racing to capture market share. Amid global political and economic volatility and under extreme pressure to deliver short-term, bottom- line returns, it turns out that organisations aren’t ditching decarbonisation. According to Boston Consulting Group and CO2 AI’s Climate Survey 2025¹, more than four out of five companies we surveyed reported financial gains from their decarbonisation efforts. In the absence of policy certainty, global organisations have struggled to rationalise hefty transition investments in emerging technologies while delivering quarterly results to shareholders. According to the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, companies are increasingly channeling investments into ‘bright spots’ – i.e. markets offering stable policy environments, affordable clean energy and growing demand for low-carbon solutions. The stakes to decarbonise remain high Almost all of the business leaders surveyed in the Business Breakthrough Barometer 2025 believe that achieving a net-zero economy, one that delivers a stable climate, in the long term, will result in lower burdens on their organisation than the costs of transitioning. On top of that, industries are collectively recognising that if they want to thrive and survive, they need to decarbonise. In April, the UN International Maritime Organisation and Marine Environment Protection committee agreed to have its net zero emissions framework formally adopted in October this year before coming into force in 2027². References 1. Boston Consulting Group and CO2 AI, Climate Survey 2025, https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/tackling- climate-challenge-creating-value 2. United Nations, “Countries reach historic deal to cut shipping emissions”. April 2025. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/04/1162176
Conceptual models: material passports, circular flows, waste-to-value systems
Jane Nethersole, Programme Director, Climate Action
The Absolute Efficiency mindset shift
Reframe sustainability: control costs, protect profits, drive innovation and build resilience
Absolute Efficiency is a fundamental reframing of sustainability that steps away from political baggage, freeing businesses to focus on what they understand best–measurable results and bottom-line impact. It means being bold enough to think systemically, work outside traditional silos and push suppliers to find efficiencies to build long-term resilience, regardless of the policies governments are planning or implementing. Don’t wait for instructions. Instead, decide what to do and how to get there, simply because it makes good business sense.
Example: data centre reusing heat
References 1. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). “Business Breakthrough Barometer.” June 30, 2025. https://www.wbcsd.org/actions/business-breakthrough-barometer 2. International Energy Agency (IEA). Gaining an Edge: The Role of Energy Efficiency in Enhancing Competitiveness. June 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/gaining-an-edge 3. Center for Sustainability & Excellence. The EU’s Road to a Circular Economy by 2025: Key Steps and Challenges. January 31, 2025. https://cse-net.org/eu-road-to-a-circular-economy-by-2025-key-steps-and- challenges
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A reality check: Progress amid persistent challenges
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Hard to abate industries account for nearly 40 percent of global greenhouse gases. And while these sectors are nudging in the right direction, heavy industry comes up against fundamental physics when it comes to decarbonising. Steel production requires temperatures exceeding 1,500°C. Cement manufacturing inherently releases CO2 through chemical reactions. Aviation demands energy-dense fuels. These process emissions – distinct from energy-related emissions – have remained largely unchanged for decades.
Over the last 12 months, companies in harder-to-abate sectors have marched on by positioning themselves for long-term competitiveness by anticipating evolving regulatory frameworks, tightening regulations and procurement requirements. Why else are organisations not losing focus on decarbonisation? Fifty-six percent of surveyed business leaders say the primary motivation for investing in the transition is to secure long-term industrial competitiveness.
Orchestrate an ecosystem Decarbonisation cannot be achieved in silos. Organisations must adopt a collective approach to drive low carbon operations and processes. Internally that means breaking down traditional silos and
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encouraging cross-functional cooperation. Collaboration extends to encompass like- minded partnerships with industry peers, government, industrial hubs, even competitors. Industry alliances and collaborative initiatives enable shared standards, best practices and frameworks.
Digital-first measurement and tracking Spreadsheet-based emissions tracking is becoming a competitive liability. Companies that can accurately and repeatedly report their decarbonisation progress are emerging as preferred partners for investors and customers. There is also greater scrutiny surrounding emissions, their origin, calculation and aggregation. Leverage digital data to track metrics, map supply chains and integrate renewables into manufacturing.
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Outside of the World Economic Forum’s recommendations³ to focus on collaboration, electrification and circularity efforts, here are practical measures for business leaders looking to position their decarbonisation efforts for profitability and competitiveness. Five ways to make viable progress
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Integrated solution development Explore which low carbon alternatives for scaling are most cost effective and also provide greater diversification across domestic and export customer bases. Execution plans that combine multiple low carbon energy customer sets are likely to provide the best opportunities for early market entry. It will take a combination of solutions underscored by social buy-in, equitable policies, workforce upskilling and supporting communities. Consider harnessing AI and simulation tools to break down increasingly complex scenarios and support smarter decision-making.
Diversification for market leadership Focus on a balance of short- term wins, while investing in longer term goals and more transformational strategies. Devote resources to large, complex decarbonisation projects while focusing on near-term opportunities that bring you closer to the end goals. For example, investing in renewable energy infrastructure while pursuing ongoing energy efficiency programs. Consider what’s available to your business across financing mechanisms such as green bonds, public- private partnerships, climate funds and carbon pricing. Slicing up your decarbonisation strategy into achievable components will help you adopt a more practical approach while working on bigger, flagship-style solutions.
Technology investment for new efficiencies Digital innovation can fast- track positive outcomes. Emerging technologies across carbon capture, utilisation and storage, biofuels, new production pathways for materials, hydrogen and its derivatives can all be considered in your plans. Start with considering what technologies you already have available and go from there to establish new systems and platforms that support long-term transition efforts. To select ideal digital partner organisations, the additional capabilities and expertise required to accelerate achieving your net zero goals. conduct a needs gap assessment to identify
Shifting the narrative from problem solving to opportunity creation
Intertwined in these steps is the call for pooling thinking, best practices and resources, desperately needed to drive industry forward. Creating forums and collaboration opportunities is crucial for carving out a clear path. Organisations seeking long-term stability, adaptation and resilience, and those wanting to perform in an increasingly complex environment need to decarbonise. Evaluating your risks and implementing actions to
address operations, practices, products and services is critical regardless of your industry. Hard-to-abate sectors require more significant diversification and changes across the supply chain to edge closer to targets. Reframe the conversation from a set of problems to solve and costs to outlay into one about opportunity and future-proofing.
3. World Economic Forum, - ‘Hard-to-abate’ sectors are reducing emissions, here’s how they can accelerate progress towards net zero’. December 2024. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/12/net-zero-hard-to-abate-sectors-decarbonization/
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This isn’t a future fuel for some distant tomorrow. Green ammonia is a real, available solution for today’s data centre challenges.” � Hassan Modarresi, Senior Technical Director – Energy, USA “
From farms to the clouds: Can green ammonia solve the data centre energy dilemma? Artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure are
Carbon-free operations Unlike diesel generators or carbon-intensive hydrogen production methods, ammonia fuel solutions eliminate carbon emissions completely. Leveraging these systems represents a step toward achieving net-zero goals in the operations of data centres while setting new standards for environmental responsibility. Scalability and economic efficiency Ammonia’s ability to integrate into existing industrial systems and infrastructure makes it highly scalable. Additionally, lower production costs due to advancements in renewable energy technologies make ammonia a cost-efficient solution for high-demand sectors like data centres. Storage versatility Renewable ammonia can be deployed both as a direct fuel source and as a storage medium for hydrogen. This dual-use capability translates into flexibility for data centre operators who require systems that adapt to fluctuating energy demands. A real-world proof of concept A techno-economic analysis conducted in a GHD West Texas case study evaluated an integrated system comprising 250 MW of on-site solar and wind generation and 140 MW of electrolysis capacity, designed to produce green ammonia to power an 80 MW behind-the-meter data centre². The system demonstrated strong performance, delivering an annual energy surplus of 278 GWh and a shortfall of just 88 GWh. After factoring in conversion losses, the model shows that it can meet total site continuous energy demands over 99.999 percent availability Importantly, the estimated levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is $128/MWh today, with projections suggesting it could fall to $60/MWh as technologies mature, deployment scales and supply chains become more efficient. The key benefits of renewable ammonia systems include:
accelerating faster than the systems built to power them. Data centres - already among the most energy-hungry facilities on the planet - are scaling rapidly, yet many remain tied to outdated, emissions-heavy energy models.
Hassan Modarresi,
Senior Technical Director – Energy, USA
Consider the projections: in the US alone, data centre electricity use is forecast to surge by 160 percent by 2030 - adding approximately 650 TWh of demand and accounting for 8 percent of total national electricity consumption. Meeting this load will require an estimated USD 50 billion in new power generation, with 60 percent expected from natural gas and 40 percent from renewables¹. So, how do we power the future of AI? A new solution is emerging - powering data centres with on-site renewables and future fuels, including green ammonia. By integrating solar and wind generation with hydrogen electrolysis and ammonia storage, operators can create fully off-grid, low-carbon Ammonia and its derivatives have historically been used in agriculture and industry, but its role in energy is evolving quickly. When produced from green hydrogen and nitrogen via renewables-powered electrolysis, it becomes a carbon-free, storable fuel that can be cracked back into hydrogen or combusted directly in turbines or engines. Among the three main “future fuels” being explored for clean power - hydrogen, methanol and ammonia - ammonia offers a uniquely strong fit for data centres. Hydrogen delivers the highest efficiencies and near-zero emissions, particularly in fuel cells, but presents significant storage and handling challenges. Methanol, while offering slightly better combustion efficiency than ammonia, depends on access to biogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) for synthesis, complicating its scalability. Ammonia strikes a powerful middle ground: moderate efficiency, near-zero CO₂ emissions and compatibility with existing infrastructure and technology pathways. It’s also scalable and transportable, with a far higher energy density than hydrogen alone which makes it ideal for distributed, high-demand facilities like data centres. systems which are resilient by design and ready for the AI era. Beyond the hype: why ammonia? 1. Goldman Sachs. Generational Growth in AI: Data Centers and the Coming US Power Surge, Generational Growth AI, data centers and the coming US power demand surge. 2023. 2. GHD. Ammonia as a renewable fuel solution for data centers, Ammonia as a renewable fuel solution for sustainable behind-the-meter data centers. 2025.
Tej Gidda, Global Leader, Future Energy
Ron Heffron, Vice President – US Hydrogen
Download Further explore the potential of ammonia as a renewable fuel for data centres in this whitepaper.
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Rethinking due diligence From risk-aversion to enhancing value
Climate, compliance and resilience
Bridging the gap between sustainability and reliability
The benefits go well beyond cost. The system’s carbon intensity is estimated at just 3 g CO₂/KWh, up to 150 times lower than natural gas³. And unlike fossil-based systems, this solution recovers water vapour from combustion, offering up to one-third water reuse potential in drought-prone regions. As data centres expand into remote, arid or grid- constrained areas, these advantages matter. Ammonia offers a path to resilient, modular power without reliance on pipelines, permits or centralised infrastructure. Addressing adoption risks Like any emerging solution, ammonia faces perceived barriers: capex, safety, regulation. But the industrial ammonia supply chain is already well-established, and advancements in green hydrogen production are reducing costs and improving system safety. Pilot projects in Europe and Japan have already validated ammonia-powered generators in commercial settings. Policy support is also growing. National and regional regulators are now offering incentives for green ammonia production, infrastructure co-investment and early- stage innovation partnerships⁴ ⁵.
The overlooked opportunity Ammonia is well known in petrochemical, agriculture and heavy industry circles, but its application to data centres is still nascent. For operators, the opportunity is not just decarbonisation, it is leadership. Green ammonia offers a way to design for resilience, signal climate alignment and unlock community and investor confidence. They also support grid flexibility, allowing data centres to reduce peak load stress and decouple from energy market volatility. This isn’t just about technology. It’s about autonomy - energy systems that respond to internal demand, not external disruption. The real value of ammonia lies in bridging the tension between sustainability and uptime. Diesel and gas systems offer reliability, but at a climate cost. Renewables offer clean power, but intermittently. Ammonia-powered systems close that gap, offering dispatchable backup power during outages or demand spikes while enabling fully off-grid operation where needed.
Investment decisions related to energy infrastructure projects are usually driven by one overarching and crucial question: What could go wrong?
Thomas Evans, Origination Leader Commercial Advisory
But the most forward-looking businesses and investors in the space find they can unlock more long-term deal value by putting equal emphasis on another question: What could go right? By making a systematic evaluation of opportunities as well as risks, it’s possible to turn defence into attack. Whether projects involve solar or wind power, battery energy storage, energy from waste or circular chemicals, due diligence becomes a strategic tool for unlocking value, opening pathways to higher ROI and fueling growth. This more forward-looking approach doesn’t replace the vital work of kicking a project’s tyres for potential problems. Instead, it enhances it, allowing investment committees to make decisions based on a more holistic picture of an infrastructure opportunity. Let’s first look at how a typical risk-focused due diligence process works. For investors, the primary goal of due diligence has traditionally been to identify possible red flags, such as technical or commercial risks, that would enable them to negotiate a price reduction or withdraw from a deal altogether. It’s
also an important box to tick for investors with environmental compliance mandates. Consider, for example, a solar farm: Investors would want to investigate any issues with the project’s grid connectivity or risks associated with its planning permission. They might also examine whether the appropriate commercial contracts are in place with buyers for the energy they plan to generate. While the exact risks will vary according to the specific assets involved, every project typically raises technical, environmental, market and delivery issues that must be thoroughly evaluated and presented to investors. Just as a prospective homebuyer would never move forward on a purchase without first checking the house’s roof and plumbing, this type of due diligence is a vital baseline for investors because it exposes the cost implications of any risks and tells them what it could take to mitigate them. Where it falls short, however, is in providing a complete picture of a project’s potential. By getting only half the story, businesses and investors can’t make fully informed decisions.
The bottom line
Data centres power our digital lives. But to meet the future, they’ll need to power themselves - cleanly, securely and sustainably. 160% US$50B $128MWh Estimated Breakdown: 60% natural gas / 40% renewables Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) now:
Green ammonia offers a way forward: a renewable, storable, scalable fuel that aligns uptime with decarbonisation. The technology is here. The use case is clear. And for data centres ready to lead, the transition has already begun.
650 250MW
TWh of added demand on US systems, accounting for 8% of total national electricity consumption
projected growth in U.S. data centre electricity usage by 2030
in new power generation needed
3g CO₂/KWh Benefits: through 1/3 water reuse; 150x lower than natural gas renewables (solar + wind) + 140 MW electrolysis = 80 MW data centre Annual surplus: 278 GWh; shortfall: 88 GWh
$60/MWh projected
3. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), Briefing note - Green hydrogen incentives and ammonia - June 2024.pdf 4. Reuters, Germany awards tender to Fertiglobe for green ammonia from Egypt | Reuters. 2024. 5. Reuters, Germany awards tender to Fertiglobe for green ammonia from Egypt. 2024. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/germany-awards-tender-fertiglobe-green-ammonia-egypt-2024-07-11/
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Risks uncovered in due diligence processes often contain the seeds of opportunities, but the traditional approach doesn’t follow through to explore what those seeds could mean for future growth. Say, for instance, a diligence process finds that an investor’s 20 percent year-on-year compound growth expectation is threatened by bottlenecks in a project’s manufacturing capacity or sales pipeline. An opportunities-focused approach might ask how the seller’s existing supply chain and sales relationships could mitigate and even outweigh that risk. From risks to opportunities
It’s an approach that can demonstrate to investors that a company has a clear path to managing its risks and maximising opportunities. For instance, a business might vertically integrate or form joint ventures with partners to de-risk or tackle upcoming challenges — thereby shifting the conversation from “slow down” or “stop” to “how to stimulate growth.” To capture a more complete picture for investors by widening the aperture to include opportunities as well as risks, use due diligence to probe for:
Market expansion What regulatory trends or adjacent channels could be leveraged to expand a project’s market potential? How might existing partnerships be used to open up access to new sources of demand?
could look to differentiate itself through sustainability metrics that attract customers with decarbonisation or related goals. Despite political changes, the market for decarbonised solutions remains strong due to several prominent companies pushing ahead with their targets. Coca-Cola³, AB InBev⁴ and Unilever⁵, for example, all have net-zero targets in place, which is driving their supply chains to invest in and develop net-zero products and services. for identifying and resolving technical problems. Still, businesses should look for advisors who bring in other professionals, such as economists and investment bankers, to determine how commercial, financial and market factors could impact value accretion. It’s important not to treat the opportunity focus as an “add-on” late in the day. Instead, it should be integrated into the diligence process right from the start because it will inform and enhance the entirety of the discussion. It’s about reframing due diligence from a static checklist of problems to a primary strategic tool for unlocking growth. Not to mention, if the transaction goes through, it serves as a blueprint for success.
While setting formal ESG targets is currently facing a “greenwashing” backlash, identifying growth opportunities through sustainable practices can be a central element of this type of diligence process. In fact, many fund managers operate within a compliance mandate, adhering to guidelines such as the Equator Principles¹ or Article 6² of the Paris Agreement, which obligates them to report sustainability risks. A project might deliver local social or environmental benefits that would strengthen its long-term viability, or a company
Supply chain strengthening
What are the prospects for forging strategic supplier relationships to diminish long-term supply risks? Are there opportunities to recycle or reinforce some components?
Making the shift
To emphasise opportunity while still acknowledging risk, investors need to demand more from their advisors during the due diligence phase. That means pushing them to analyse the big picture, rather than getting stuck in the weeds of technical risks. Flagging technical risks is step one, but it’s the advisors’ job to then place those risks in context and weigh them against long-term value creation. And consider which risks will have a material impact on the business’s costs and cashflows. An opportunities-focused approach also benefits from calling on a broader, more interdisciplinary team than due diligence usually entails. Engineers may be crucial
Technology boost Is there an innovation roadmap that could allow the project to operate and scale most effectively and efficiently?
Management networking
Does senior leadership have relationships they can harness to expand opportunities and drive growth? Do they have the strategic skills to make the most of opportunities? Is the organisation’s structure adequate and set up to succeed and support growth?
Demand signals and product-market fit How well does the project align with emerging industry trends? What benchmarking or global competitive information can be sourced for assessing ‘lessons learnt’?
References 1. The Equator Principles. The Equator Principles. April 2025. https://equator-principles.com/about-the-equator-principles/ 2. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.” United Nations Climate Change. 2025. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/article6 3. Coca-Cola. n.d. “Climate Action: Coca-Cola.” Coca-Cola. https://www.coca-cola.com/xe/en/sustainability/climate-action 4. AB InBev. n.d. “Net Zero Executive Summary.” AB InBev. https://www.ab-inbev.com/assets/pdfs/Net%20Zero%20Executive%20Summary_FINAL%2012pm.pdf 5. Unilever PLC. “Our Climate Transition Action Plan.” June 3, 2025. Unilever. https://www.unilever.com/sustainability/climate/our-climate-transition-action-plan/
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Beyond AC
Harnessing nature to build resilience
How natural ventilation helps future- proof buildings and control costs In a warming world, innovative businesses and urban planners are rediscovering the value of an old idea: Let nature do the cooling. Natural ventilation – the science of moving air through buildings to maintain thermal comfort without the use of air conditioning systems – is emerging as a cornerstone of intelligent climate resilience planning. Extreme heat is becoming the new normal, and it’s putting more strain on power grids. By incorporating natural ventilation into building design, organisations can reduce energy costs and carbon emissions, keep employees comfortable and protect against the costs of future climate extremes. It can also help businesses stay ahead of compliance demands as climate resilience and carbon emissions attract closer attention from regulators and governments. Builders relied on natural ventilation methods for most of human history, until the introduction of air conditioning in the early 20th century. Today’s versions use sophisticated, tech-enabled design and engineering techniques to harness thermal buoyancy (the tendency of hot air to rise) and wind effects to ventilate indoor spaces efficiently. Perhaps the most compelling argument for natural ventilation? It’s free to run, and at a time when temperatures are rising along with the costs of keeping cool with air conditioning. What’s more, the upfront investments in designing and building natural ventilation systems are often less than those for complex HVAC systems.
Integrating natural ventilation into projects not only saves money now, but also helps protect buildings and businesses against future challenges, such as climate change and rising energy costs. In GHD’s recent work on the Ontario Line subway station project in Toronto, for example, we modelled the building’s thermal comfort not only on current weather conditions but also on several global warming scenarios. This ensures the station will remain within temperature thresholds even under extreme heat, removing the need for costly retrofits in the future. As part of the design, several hundred square metres of automated louvers (angled slats), positioned in various locations, are programmed to open when the indoor temperature reaches a certain level. This allows hot air to escape through the top of the building. Permanent openings, such as escalator shafts, also help by drawing in cooler air indoors and allowing warmer air to exit through the louvers. In hot climates, louvers are typically designed to be resistant to heat and sand, and are often equipped with seals to prevent dust and debris from entering the building. Another key benefit of louvers is their seasonal flexibility: They can be closed in winter to retain heat within the building and opened in summer to enhance ventilation. Louvers can also provide acoustic insulation, which can be tailored to meet specific noise control requirements. Another building envelope cooling strategy is glazing, which was also deployed in the Ontario Line project. Glazing, a protective layer applied to a surface, plays a key role in limiting direct sunlight and, therefore, heat from entering a building. High-performance double or triple glazing with low-emissivity (Low-E) coatings and a low solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) is commonly used to reduce solar radiation while maintaining sufficient daytime lighting. Glazing systems are often complemented by solar- reflective coatings and architectural elements, such as sunshades or brise-soleils, which help deflect solar rays and further reduce thermal loads. Sun breakers support thermal comfort by intercepting sunlight before it reaches building façades, while still allowing for natural airflow. Common materials include aluminium, perforated metal or treated wood, and are selected based on performance and aesthetics. The most effective natural ventilation projects are designed to leverage local climate and weather conditions. The 18-story San Francisco Federal Building, which opened in 2007, is a prime example. Instead of louvers, remote-controlled windows in optimal locations create cross ventilation by leveraging wind exposure. The building’s management system monitors temperature, wind speeds and carbon dioxide levels, and automatically opens windows during favourable conditions.
Ali Rezghi, Junior Energy & Computational Fluid Dynamics
Modeling Specialist
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Seizing the opportunity of England’s new biodiversity rules
Future-proofing against strained grids, regulations
Regulatory codes for building sustainability are becoming increasingly stringent. Natural ventilation methods can help buildings perform well in energy consumption and carbon emissions assessments. For example, natural ventilation scores highly on the Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM). When it comes to extreme weather, such as heatwaves or earthquakes, natural ventilation systems tend to perform more reliably than
mechanical alternatives in testing scenarios. The cooling approach also relieves pressure on electricity grids, especially in highly populated urban areas and during extreme weather conditions. During this summer’s heatwave in Europe, for example, daily power demand increased by up to 14 percent¹ as air conditioning use surged. Natural ventilation also reduces peak energy loads and provides organisations with a non-mechanical backup system.
Seeding wildflower meadows. Thinning non-native trees. Supporting pollinators. Creating ponds and wetlands. What if landowners could turn relatively simple, wildlife-friendly enhancements to their property into sources of income? Matthew Ling,
Nature-based Solution Lead, Commercial Advisory
Dependence on climate demands careful solutions
There is also significant global interest in how England’s BNG scheme has been developed and implemented, and how its adoption is progressing, as countries consider the potential for creating similar markets. The World Economic Forum has estimated² that global demand for biodiversity credits could reach USD 2 billion in 2030 and USD 69 billion in 2050, assuming a supportive policy environment. If less effective measures are taken, global demand could still reach USD 760 million by 2030 and increase to as much as USD 6 billion by 2050. Contributions through such mechanisms could go some way to realising Target 19 of the Global Biodiversity Framework, which seeks to mobilise USD 200 billion annually³ for biodiversity from all sources, including public, private and international finance. Pioneering biodiversity market schemes can play a crucial role globally in complementing existing mechanisms, such as carbon markets. They can provide a valuable incentive for landowners to protect and restore natural ecosystems while offering businesses and other organisations more options to meet net-zero, nature-positive and other environmental goals.
In 2024, England introduced world-first planning rules under its Environment Act requiring developers to ensure that new projects improve the local environment by achieving a “biodiversity net gain” (BNG) of at least 10 percent¹. That’s calculated using a government metric to assess the relative value of different types of habitats before and after a development is built, based on assumptions about what kinds of plant, animal, insect and other lifeforms a given habitat can support. If a developer cannot achieve the requisite uplift within their site boundaries or on other land they own, they can make up the difference by purchasing off-site biodiversity units from third- party providers. Any landowner can generate these units and become a provider by making biodiversity enhancements on land they own, committing to manage these improvements for at least 30 years and logging the resulting units in an official registry. Landowners of all types have begun exploring the opportunities presented by BNG, investing in enhancing the quality of their land for biodiversity. Among the landowners, a significant group is England’s 317 local authorities, which own 5,261 km² of land or 4 percent of the country’s total area, and have shown interest in capitalising on this new market.
Natural ventilation involves a complex interplay between design, engineering and the natural environment, which raises several considerations and potential limitations. First of all, the method is dependent on the outside climate. In very hot and humid climates natural ventilation may not be suitable because the air being drawn in could be too warm to provide adequate cooling for a building. In this case, natural ventilation could still be used in tandem with a mechanical cooling mechanism. Another possible risk: Natural ventilation could introduce pollutants or particulate matter into the building – a consideration in urban areas where heavy traffic or industrial zones can increase the presence of contaminants. For projects located near potentially polluting sites,
careful assessments are required to determine which parts of the building’s natural ventilation equipment would be unsuitable due to excessive local pollution. Noise and security are other considerations. Operable windows can amplify street noise, as well as produce whistling or humming sounds during high winds. Open windows on lower floors can create entry points for intruders. These factors make natural ventilation an effective choice when applied as part of a hybrid climate resilience system and supported by detailed engineering modelling and environmental assessments. For example, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations can be used to study air quality and thermal performance of a building.
Natural ventilation at the heart of climate resilience
As companies and cities make strides towards their goals for net-zero carbon emissions, natural ventilation can be a valuable tool in supporting climate resilience objectives as well as the safety and comfort of employees. It also aligns well with urban planning for green spaces and principles of healthy living.
Going forward, technology such as AI and digital twins (virtual replicas of physical objects or systems) can provide more detailed and accurate simulations of how systems will perform in various weather and climate scenarios. This will enable organisations to create more effective, environmentally appropriate solutions that are critical to the effectiveness of natural ventilation systems.
References 1. Czyzak, Pawel. “Heat and Power: Impacts of the 2025 Heatwave in Europe.” Ember. July 4, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/heat-and-power-impacts-of-the-2025-heatwave-in-europe/
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Greening the grey In England, Plymouth City Council became the first local authority to establish a Habitat Bank under its Ocean City Nature⁴ scheme, designed to help local developers meet their obligations under the new rules. Improvements to three initial sites totalling 109 hectares at Cann Woods, Ham Woods and Chelson Meadow are expected to generate biodiversity units worth GBP 7.4 million over 30 years. This would result in a net benefit to the council of GBP 187,000 per year over 30 years, after accounting for habitat management costs. Other local authorities have followed suit, registering approximately 680 hectares⁵ of habitat creation or enhancement in the year following the rules’ implementation. With more investors, landowners and organisations getting involved, the market for biodiversity units could grow to between GBP 135 million and GBP 274 million per year⁶, according to projections in a report commissioned by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Progress in England’s pioneering market for biodiversity units will, to some extent, be influenced by how rapidly landowners can access the expertise needed to identify the scale of the opportunity and the potential market that could be unlocked through the BNG process. The first step towards creating a habitat bank and selling biodiversity units involves identifying the existing state of Biodiversity by the numbers 10% 4% minimum mandatory uplift in biodiversity post project development for 30 years; Sutton case shows 171% biodiversity net gain. With net gains above 10% used to offset future projects of England’s total area (5,261 km2) – and growing - is currently applying BNG
Compliance and climate challenges
current habitats, then conducting a baseline ecological survey and condition assessment of any potential land that could be registered as a gain site. Owners can then start scoping viable enhancement options and then run the baseline data and improvement plan through the statutory metric to ascertain how many units the site could generate. Just a few examples of the many possible approaches include thinning non-native tree species or clearing invasive or dominant single-species areas to allow a greater diversity of plants to establish themselves. New habitats can be created, such as by sowing wildflower meadows, digging new ponds, or planting trees to establish new woodlands. Blue-green infrastructure⁷ approaches can be used as alternatives to traditional engineering options in urban areas to “green the grey” and support pollinating insects, for example. Sometimes the potential gains can go far beyond the 10 percent required in the Environment Act. In the London Borough of Sutton, a case study⁸ from the consultancy Aspect Ecology suggests that plans to plant more than 300 trees and develop green roofs, shrubs, gardens and other green spaces at a development of 970 new homes and adjacent commercial property will generate a biodiversity net gain of 171 percent. All net gains above the minimum 10 percent requirement represent units that could be used to offset the developer’s other projects or sold to other developers requiring off-site gains. £7.4M $2B value over 30 years. Benefit to council of £187,000 per year over 30 years Plymouth: 109 hectares Global biodiversity market projections (WEF): $2B (2030), $69B (2050)
Once a landowner has decided to proceed with managing their land as a habitat bank, they must legally secure the land and commit to managing the enhancements for a minimum of 30 years. They must then develop a habitat monitoring and management plan for approval by the Local Planning Authority and register the land parcels as Habitat Banks on the Natural England National Biodiversity Gain Sites Register. Assuming the application is approved, the units will be added, and the landowner can then seek out developers who need them to meet their 10 percent biodiversity net gain obligations. Recent examples of local authorities taking advantage of the system include Hartlepool Borough Council in northeast England. The council has collaborated⁹ with the Environment Bank, a leading developer of biodiversity units, and local tenant farmers to produce a supply of 100 off-site biodiversity units. These units will help developers meet the projected demand for 1,000 new homes in the area each year. One of the biggest challenges for local planning authorities may lie in implementing the monitoring and enforcement processes needed to ensure that enhancement pledges are honoured. Critics point out that there is, as yet, no clearly defined process for compliance monitoring, raising the risk 10 that commitments to manage habitats in specific ways over 30-year periods could fall by the wayside. That would render any projected biodiversity enhancements, and payments made for them, meaningless. This governance gap could make the system “unenforceable”, a study 11 published in 2021 warned. The authors also found widespread disagreement among surveyors over habitat classifications, leaving significant scope for bias or error. Fifteen months after BNG became mandatory, it would be interesting to collate experience from ecologists conducting baselining to see if this is reflected in the reality of implementing the process. Perhaps some of this may surface through the recently closed consultation process 12 . Momentum for change While such concerns will linger, the BNG process reflects broader ambition and momentum towards more sustainable development and protection, restoration, and enhancement of the environment. By 2030, the UK Green Building Council, a group comprising developers and more than 20 local authorities, aims to have all new buildings and infrastructure designed to be climate-resilient and to maximise environmental net gains throughout their lifetimes, including through the prioritisation of nature-based solutions. The scope for landowners to realise value under the new regulations – and the potential for environmental benefits – appears likely to grow.
References 1. Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs. “Understanding biodiversity net gain.” GOV.UK. 2025. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/understanding-biodiversity-net-gain 2. World Economic Forum in collaboration with McKinsey & Company. “Biodiversity Credits: Demand Analysis And Market Outlook Insight Report.” World Economic Forum. 2023. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_2023_Biodiversity_Credits_Demand_ Analysis_and_Market_Outlook.pdf 3. Convention on Biological Diversity. n.d. “Target 19: Mobilise $200 Billion per Year for Biodiversity From all Sources, Including $30 Billion Through International Finance.” Convention on Biological Diversity. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. https://www.cbd.int/gbf/targets/19 4. Ocean City Nature. n.d. “Bringing benefits for people and wildlife in Plymouth.” https://www.oceancitynature.co.uk/ 5. Ben Stansfield. “Biodiversity Net Gain - how might new proposals evolve the current regime?” Gowling WLG. 2025. https://gowlingwlg.com/en-ca/insights-resources/articles/2025/biodiversity- net-gain---how-might-new-proposals-evolve-the-current-regime?.com 6. Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Economics for the Environment Consultancy Ltd (eftec). “Biodiversity Net Gain: Market analysis study.” London, UK. 2021. 8. Poulton, Jon. “February 2024: Case Study - Delivering Significant (>150%) Biodiversity Net Gain in Greater London.” Aspect Ecology. February 28, 2024. https://aspect-ecology.com/january-2024-biodiversity-net-gain-to- become-mandatory-from-12-february-2024-copy 9. Environment Bank. “BNG Habitat Bank in partnership with Hartlepool Council.” Environment Bank. 2025. https://www.environmentbank.com/case-studies/bng-habitat-bank-in- partnership-with-hartlepool-council/ 10. National Audit Office (NAO) UK. “Risks to the long-term effectiveness of new biodiversity net gain scheme.” 2024. https://www.nao.org.uk/press-releases/risks-to-the-long-term-effectiveness- of-new-biodiversity-net-gain-scheme/ 11. Zu Ermgassen, Sophus O., Sally Marsh, Kate Ryland, Edward Church, Richard Marsh, and Joseph W. Bull. “Exploring the Ecological Outcomes of Mandatory Biodiversity Net Gain Using Evidence from Early adopter Jurisdictions in England.” Conservation Letters 14 (6). The Society for Conservation Biology. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12820 https://randd.defra.gov.uk/ProjectDetails?ProjectId=20608 7. GreenBlue Urban. “Why Green and Blue?” January 9, 2023. https://greenblue.com/ce/about-us/why-green-and-blue/ 12. Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, UK. “Improving the implementation of biodiversity net gain for minor, medium and brownfield development.” GOV.UK. May 28, 2025. https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/improving-the- implementation-of-biodiversity-net-gain-for-minor-medium-and-brownfield- development
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