housing
PER-PERSON PURCHASING PARITY The Vancouver Region has typically seen less housing market activity, relative to population, than other markets in British Columbia. Not this year.
British Columbia’s largest housing markets have a lot in common, operating in a similar regulatory environment and sharing a macro-economy. But given the difference in size between Vancouver, Victoria, and Kelowna, it can be useful to compare these markets on a population-adjusted basis. And when we look at per-capita sales activity, the Kelowna market stands out from the other two. For most of the past decade, the Central Okanagan saw about 25% more per-capita sales counts than Greater Victoria and the Vancouver Region. This surplus of activity
likely captures the increased demand from secondary buyers in the Okanagan—think a mix of recreational properties, vacation homes, investors, and even part-time vacation and part-time short-term rental. That surplus, however, shrunk substantially in 2023 in the face of generationally-high interest rates and has evaporated entirely in 2024 as a plethora of new government policies have been implemented that affect investors and recreational buyers alike. With that in mind, expect the Kelowna market to take longer than its counterparts to recover as interest rates decline.
SECONDARY BUYERS FOR SECONDARY MARKETS
30
24.2
25
~ 25% recreational surplus
19.5
~ 15% recreational surplus
20
18.2
15.2
15
13.5 13.6
13.2
12.7
12.0
10
5
0
AVERAGE
FORECAST TO YEAREND
VANCOUVER REGION GREATER VICTORIA
CENTRAL OKANAGAN
SOURCE: GVR, FVREB, VREB, AOIR, BC STATS DATA: PER-CAPITA MLS SALES COUNTS BY REGION
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