policy
06. policy The federal government has announced new plans to limit the number of non-permanent residents in Canada. Achieving this goal will require significant change.
MIGRATING TO A NEW POLICY After previously announcing new caps on the number of international study permits (which we discussed in the last rennie landscape), the federal government, in March, announced a plan to reduce the overall number of temporary residents— international students, temporary foreign workers, and the international mobility program—in Canada. The intention is to reduce the share of non-permanent residents to 5% of Canada’s population from 6.2% (at the time of announcement) by 2027. Since the announcement, the latest quarterly demographic estimates showed that the share of non-permanent residents was actually 7.3% of the population (3 million people) at the end of Q2, making the task that much more difficult. As we discussed earlier, the number of temporary permits issued through the first seven months of 2024 is actually higher than the same period in 2023, suggesting that no meaningful action on this issue has begun.
What’s more, the sheer scale of the change requires more than just reducing the number of new permits issued—it will also require a greater share of non-permanent residents leave the country once their permits expire (instead of renewing or seeking permanent residency). The other option available is to only issue permanent residency to current non-permanent residents—in the last few years between two-thirds and three-quarters of permanent resident additions annually have already been living in Canada—but this also will not be enough to meet the new target alone. What this means for Canada, and for local real estate in British Columbia, if the new target is achieved, will be a slowdown in overall population growth. The first order effect will be a reduction in overall rental housing demand as the majority of temporary residents are tenants. This should bring the rental market, which is currently undersupplied, closer to balance.
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