economy
JOBS FIND THEIR MATCH: WORKERS! The great mismatch between jobs and workers that persisted through much of the past few years has abated, with the job vacancy rate now back to its pre-pandemic level.
Canada’s job vacancy rate has been on the inverse trend to its unemployment rate. After peaking in the spring of 2022 at 5.7%, it has consistently declined the past couple of years to its most recent level at 3.1%. This matches the rate heading into the pandemic as the number of open roles and workers to fill them has largely normalized. With vacancies back to typical levels, expect less upward pressure on wages as companies find it easier to source the workers they need—which may not be great for job seekers but is good news for the Bank of Canada as it seeks to maintain 2.0% inflation.
Despite an overall reduction in job vacancies, the pace of reduction has not been consistent across sectors and poses some important challenges going forward. The good news for the real estate sector, as we collectively attempt to significantly expand the supply of housing, is that the construction vacancy rate has declined to a manageable 3.6%. In contrast, the relative prevalence of job vacancies in health care (at 4.8%) is poised to grow due to both our growing and aging population.
A HEALTHY LEVEL OF VACANCIES (FOR MOST)
14%
12%
10%
8%
pre-pandemic vacancy rate average 2.8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
HIGH LOW CURRENT
(excludes March-Sept 2020)
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA. TABLE 14-10-0406-01 DATA: JOB VACANCY RATES BY SECTOR, SEASONALLY-UNADJUSTED, 2015-2024, CANADA
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