LEARN ABOUT FORECASTING As the owner of a business, if you are thinking about today, then it’s actually too late. You needed to think about today a couple of months ago. Here are my two easy steps for forecasting. they can say, “During the last two weeks of August, we see our numbers decline by 20 percent each week. We have an average of 10 calls an hour on Monday morning and two calls an hour each afternoon,” and so on. When you have data that measures the trends, you can pinpoint the exact weeks and days when things will happen. For example, when using data, you know that your calls have historically dropped by a certain amount each day of the last two weeks of August so that things have slowed down by September.
STEP 1: MEASURING TRENDS The first thing you need to do for your business is measure trends. Yes, you already generally know that the summer will be busy and the fall will be slower — but do you know the exact time period when that happens? You generally know the days of the week that are busier or slower — but do you know why or by how much? Yes, you know the general hours of the day that are busier or slower, but do you know by the exact amount? Most contracting-business owners can probably say, “Summers are busy. Mondays are insane, and we tend to get a lot of calls in the morning.” That is the extent of their general awareness. Want to know what the more successful contracting-business owner knows? He or she opens a spreadsheet displaying the number of phone calls and appointments every hour of every day of every week of every month. Then
Those numbers give so much power because they allow you to apply your knowledge in a very specific way, beyond just knowing when things are generally busy or slow! It’s the difference between making decisions based on a feeling and making decisions based on data. STEP 2: FORECASTING FOR PROFIT Forecasting is about comparing yesterday’s data to today’s data in order to help you make decisions for tomorrow. The problem is this: If you’re focused more on feelings than on data and are busy dealing with the pressure and busyness of today, you can’t make great decisions for tomorrow. Unfortunately, most contracting-business owners finish up the busy summer work, then when fall comes around, they are almost surprised by it. They knew it was coming, but they weren’t prepared.
This very accurate forecasting allows you to make decisions. Can you schedule nonemergency calls for those days? Can you let your team take vacations during the slowest times? Can you presell services for the slowest days? Can you assign your team to other work during the slowest hours of the day? Forecasting in this way will streamline your business and keep you one step — or several — ahead. Do you want to start down this better path and gaze into your business’ crystal ball? It’s simple: Open a spreadsheet and start writing down how many calls your team got today. If possible, collect that data from the past. Keep going every single day from now on. Then review that information daily, and make decisions about the future. Okay — so there is no crystal ball, but this is the next best thing.
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