ANNUAL ECONOMIC FORECAST PREDICTS CONTINUED GROWTH FOR METRO
In 2023, the Oklahoma City metro should continue to show positive growth despite slowing national economic conditions, according to the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber’s annual Greater Oklahoma City Economic Outlook. The Oklahoma City MSA now accounts for 41% of the state of Oklahoma’s total GDP, or four out of every ten dollars of goods and services produced. Last year saw the metro returning to pre-pandemic employment heights. In 2022, the economy experienced year-over-year nonfarm annual job growth of 3.4% or a gain of 22,000 jobs in the Oklahoma City MSA (preliminary estimates). The largest percentage year-over-year job gains (all over 5%) were found in mining/oil & gas (+11.6%), transportation, warehousing & utilities (+7.6%), wholesale trade (+6.9%), administrative services (+5.8%) and health care (+5.5%). The only sectors experiencing declines were found in information (-3.5%), state government (-1.1%) and financial activity (-0.2%). Positive Oklahoma City metro nonfarm job growth in 2023 is expected, with the baseline job forecast scenario growing by 2% or adding approximately 13,600 jobs by the end of 2023. Supporting details for each industry is offered in the following commentary. Two alternative forecast models that the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber tracks separately show a slightly more modest 2023 employment growth between 1.4% and 1.6%. The local economy remains vulnerable to national and global uncertainties that may disrupt economic conditions. According to the report, 2023 will begin much as 2022 did – with talk of recessions. In 2022, the conversation was premature. Declining real GDP in the first and second quarters of the year seemed to indicate a recession, but labor markets and consumer spending showed otherwise. While no rigorous and technical definition of a recession exists, recessions tend to be self- revealing. If you must ask if the economy is in recession, the answer is no.
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