Brookings Institute found that the Chinese government has been systematically fudging its economic data. “China has overestimated its nominal and real growth rates by about two full percentage points on average between 2008 to 2016,” reported the South China Morning Post . When reported economic growth is between 6% and 8%, two percentage points of wiggle room is a lot. And the people in charge of collecting data at the local level know which side their bread is buttered on... The SCMP explains, “It has long been believed that local Chinese officials inflate figures reflecting their economic performance, which is closely tied to their opportunity for promotion.” If local Chinese officials are willing and incentivized to falsify economic data to make sure they get promoted, do you think they’d hesitate for a moment to fake data about precisely how many people in their neighborhood have contracted the Wuhan virus? It’s easy to forget that while China’s economy is unapologetically capitalist, its government is – as unapologetically – communist. In practice, this can often mean that government officials have a near-feudal relationship with their superiors. And no matter what the big boss says (in part for the consumption of nervous foreigners), no mid-level boss – or anyone down the chain – wants the scrutiny that might come with fessing up to more cases of the virus. Better to obscure and hope it blows over, or that someone else takes the blame.
In 2003... China hid the true scale of the SARS threat. State officials have admitted that mistakes were made during the SARS outbreak and pledged to be much more transparent in the future. But even if they keep that promise, will China’s people and foreign governments believe them? What’s more, China is a world leader in information control and containment. Remember, there’s no Google, Twitter, or Facebook in China – because the authorities can’t control them. That’s why China has its own Internet ecosystem. The Chinese authorities have access to every bit of information or data about anyone or anything in China – thanks to Tencent and every other social media, data, and computer company in China. If it wanted to, there’s little question that China could ensure that nothing other than the party line escapes to the international airwaves about the coronavirus. And what if the Chinese government itself has no clue about the actual severity of the outbreak – because of an inherent weakness in its political structure? As GZERO Media explained: In an authoritarian system like China’s, local authorities know that access to state resources and personal promotion depend on both loyalty to their bosses and the quality of their performance. They have an incentive to promote good news and hide bad news, and there is no free press to hold them accountable. In March, a study by U.S. think tank
American Consequences
49
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator