economy
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE LIMBO: HOW LOW CAN WE GO? In a region with full employment, new housing is an economic facilitator.
Housing market stability is predicated on solid economic fundamentals. One such fundamental is employment—or a lack of unemployment—and this is where Metro Vancouver's labour market really flexes its muscles: its current unemployment rate of 4.8% rivals both its all-time historical low and, more broadly, its theoretical lower limit. For Metro Vancouver’s regional peers, envy is the word, with the unemployment rate ranging from 6.1% in Toronto to 6.4% in Edmonton and 7.1% in Calgary. A recent uptick in Vancouver’s unemployment rate is something to keep
an eye on, though for those intent on scrutinizing the data on a month-to-month basis, it’s worth noting the inherent short- term variability in the data. At a high-level, Vancouver’s labour market is performing near capacity. This bodes well generally for local economic dynamism, but it does mean that if the regional economy is to grow further, additional employment gains will be accompanied by migration. The fact that an adequate supply of housing is a necessary precondition for effectively growing Vancouver’s labour market underscores the role of housing as an economic facilitator (in more ways than one).
A HISTORICALLY, AND COMPARATIVELY, LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
›
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.4% 7.3% 6.1% 4.8%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EDMONTON CALGARY
TORONTO
VANCOUVER
SOURCE: LABOUR FORCE SURVEY, STATISTICS CANADA DATA: 3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE, SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED
rennie.com
15
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online