residential
05. residential Housing construction is showing signs of slowing in Metro Vancouver; this may present a challenge for regional job growth.
NEW APARTMENT STARTS DECLINED IN 2018
In current discussions of housing in Metro Vancouver, the words “more”, “a lot”, and “too much” are increasingly being used to characterize housing supply over the next few years. And while this may be the case compared to the pre-2016 period, the latest data on new apartment construction in Metro Vancouver reveal a slowdown in new building activity is underway: in 2018, there were 15,888 apartment starts across the region (this includes owned, co-op, and purpose-built rental units), and a 9% decrease from the 17,498 that were started in 2017. As the vast majority of starts do eventually become completions, this points to slowing future supply when these units complete in the next two to three years. As points of comparison, Edmonton experienced a 33% year-over-year decline
in apartment starts between 2017 and 2018, while both Calgary and Toronto registered increases. In Toronto specifically, apartment construction activity boomed in 2018, jumping 27% from the previous year as 29,639 apartment units were started. Combined with an already-cooling market in that region, this should help to stabilize conditions in that market in the medium term. With population growth in Metro Vancouver averaging between 35-45K people annually over the coming years, new housing supply will play a key role in supporting growth. This will be something to watch as 2019 progresses as it could eventually also have economic consequences: there is the potential for workforce growth to be limited by a dearth of available homes.
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