MARKETS & TRENDS
SURGE MARKETS
ATale of Two Surges IS THE START OF A POST-PANDEMIC BOOM IN SIGHT?
by Ingo Winzer
he precise amount depends on what index you use, but
T
12-Month Home Price Increase
3-Year Population Increase
home prices surged in many mar- kets across the U.S. in the last 12 months, leading to the question: is this the start of a new post-pan- demic boom? Must investors shop quickly before they are priced out? As with much in real estate, it depends on the market. Places like Boise, Phoenix, and Tampa were in a boom well before the pandemic, so it’s likely they’ll see further increases in the next year. But it’s difficult to imagine a price boom in Buffalo. Much more likely is that while demand picked up as the end of the pandemic came in sight, supply didn’t. And not because there hasn’t been enough construction, but because in a pandemic very few people are willing to sell their home. That will loosen up as fear recedes and more jobs return. We show 10 markets with a very sharp increase in prices over the past year: five where the pressure from population growth created strong upward pressure on prices, and five where it didn’t. My guess is that the surge in the first five will continue (though not at the same rate) while the surge in the last five will turn into a blip. •
U.S. AVERAGE
7% 1.6%
18% 8.4%
Boise, ID
13% 5.9%
Phoenix, AZ
12% 4.0%
Salt Lake City, UT
11% 8.0%
Austin, TX (pictured)
10% 4.8%
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL
10% -0.2%
Buffalo, NY
9% -0.4%
New Haven, CT
9% 1.3%
Allentown, PA
9% 1.2%
Worcester, MA
9% 1.0%
Albuquerque, NM
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR, CARY NC
Ingo Winzer is president of Local Market Monitor, which analyzes conditions in 300 U.S. markets, using such economic data as home values and growth in employment and population. Winzer, who has analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years, was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in finance from Boston University. Winzer resides in Cambridge, Mass. www. localmarketmonitor.com
Our Investors Metro Analysis shows you the risks and opportunities in 200 local real estate markets at www.LocalMarketMonitor.com. Now with zip code rent data.
66 | think realty magazine :: august 2021
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