Legalized abortion and crime rates
chance of being a criminal was inconclusive. 19 Furthermore, two economists, Foote and Goetz, argued that there were significant computer programming errors in Donohue and Levitt’s work, and Fo ote says: ‘ I am simply not convinced that there is a link between abortion and crime. ’ 20 However, the two original authors counter-argued by proclaiming that, while there were a few computer errors, they did not affect the overall findings. Despite this, critics have maintained that the study is flawed, and have offered up an alternative explanation for the crime drop. One possible explanation is the lead-crime hypothesis, which proposes that elevated levels of lead in the bloodstreams of children results in increased rates of delinquencies, felonies and malfeasances later in life. In the late 19 th century, lead was found to be highly toxic to the human body, and prolonged exposure contributed towards neurological disorders and damage to the nervous system. Young individuals were found to be highly vulnerable, and often developed problems with learning and impulse control. Advocates of the lead-crime hypothesis argue that the removal of lead additives from motor fuel in the 1980s consequently meant children were significantly less exposed to this neurotoxin, so they were more mentally stable and committed less violent crimes when they grew up. The hypothesis has never been proven, but studies suggest it did impact on crime rates. Finally, opponents have argued that, regardless of whether the study is correct or not, it is still very unethical and problematic. Hypothetically, an ardent pro-life supporter might argue that a foetus is equivalent to a new-born (as they believe consciousness is realized at conception), and so the practice of abortion is the same as murdering a normal child. In the UK, in 2018, there were 205,000 abortions carried out, but just 726 people were killed by homicide in the same period. 21 Even if we were to wrongly assume that every single one of those 726murders could be accounted for by abortion, it would still take 282 abortions (or the equivalent murder of 282 new-borns in the pro- life supporter’s eyes) to stop a single homicide – this is, as the book Freakonomics explains, ‘ terribly inefficient ’ . Therefore, a hypothetical trade-off between lower crime and higher abortions would never and can never work in policy or practice. However, even though abortion is controversial, personal opinions as to whether the study is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ have no impact on the validity of the ensuing results. In conclusion, a link can indeed be seen between crime rates and abortion. In my opinion, despite the views of some critics, I think there is a strong correlation between the two that indicates a causal relationship, and legalized abortion does indeed contribute to decreased crime rates. This is not an argument for abortion one way or the other, but is just an observation that an unintended consequence of legalizing abortion may be reduced levels of crime in the future. Of course, even if legalized abortion did indeed contribute towards the crime drop in 1990s America, there are still a plethora of other factors that also could have had an impact. Certainly, the relationship between abortion and crime is not 1:1 – just because abortion is suddenly legalize d in a country, it doesn’t mean that this will necessarily cause crime levels to fall. Finally, whilst it could be argued that the controversial study take on abortion is immoral, it does not really impact on the actual findings of the Donohue-Levitt hypothesis; as an Economist article on the theory concludes: ‘ To be politically incorrect is one thing; to be simply incorrect is quite another. ’ 22
19 Kahn 2016. 20 Foote and Goetz 2015. 21 Homicide In England And Wales - Office For National Statistics (2020. 22 Oops-Onomics 2005.
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