are being spent on research, handicapping the prospects for sustainable societal immunization with any mathematical rigor is virtually impossible. A world with a vaccine by the first quarter of 2021 leads to a sharp rebound of economic activity globally, with GDP recovering substantively by the end of 2022. Disruptions in work and lifestyle patterns, while already meaningful, might be reduced to a point where the way we use commercial real estate and transportation may yet be preserved. The role of center city hubs as epicenters of human activity and workplace will be shaken, but preserved. The foundation of the American economy is built upon capitalism... a world where unfettered competition sparks relentless innovation, expertise, and constant evolution for companies that are successful, and failure where companies miss the mark. A world where we learn to “live with” COVID will look dramatically different. Center city hubs might become abandoned shells. A city’s fiscal sustainability will be in question thanks to fading tax bases and unsupportable infrastructures requiring constant federal bailouts or a wave of defaults – first of municipalities, then states. Disruption in work and lifestyle patterns will move toward permanently reshaped
tendencies with long-standing consequences for infrastructure, not to mention the ongoing reality of the humanitarian tragedy that COVID leaves in its path. 3. What happens when capitalism is eroded through the removal of failure as an outcome? The foundation of the American economy is built upon capitalism... a world where unfettered competition sparks relentless innovation, expertise, and constant evolution for companies that are successful, and failure where companies miss the mark. This foundation drove both America’s emergence as the economic superpower of the world and the remarkable advances of the human condition over the last 200 years. As an example, let’s look to the evolution of the auto industry. In the 40 years after engines were put to use for transport in the 1880s, more than 1,000 automobile manufacturers were initiated. By 1920, more than 1,000 had failed... a remarkable picture of the brutal world that is capitalism. How many fortunes were made and lost in these 40 years? How many jobs were gained, lost... and then gained again? Failure took many forms, ranging from outright bankruptcy to mergers with more successful companies. But those who triumphed truly earned their positions through excellence in design, manufacturing, supply- chain management, and constant innovation to ensure that competitors were held at bay. And the employees of the dominant U.S. automobile manufacturers by the 1930s were driving the emergence of the American middle class. During World War II, American
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