THE RENNIE OUTLOOK
04. CONCLUSION As with all metropolitan regions in Canada, British Columbia’s Lower Mainland is expected to experience a fair degree of population growth and demographic change in the coming years. That said, with the annual pace of total population growth slowing to under 1% by 2041 (from the current 1.2%), the emphasis will be much more on change than on growth. For example, the next two and a half decades will see the region’s 65 and older population expand by 89%, while its working- age population grows by 33% and the number of kids expands by only 18%. With below-replacement birth rates expected to prevail to 2041 (as they have since the early- 1970s), migration will become the predominant source of growth in the working-age population (that is, the segment of the population largely responsible for paying the health care costs associated with an aging population and supporting the range of other Canadian pay-as-you go services). Given the current and expected lifecycle patterns of housing occupancy, demographic change will see to it that the rate of growth in housing occupancy demand will outpace that of population (at 44% versus 38%). As a result, the region will need to add an average of almost 21,000 homes (on a net basis) each year for the next two and a half decades to accommodate average population additions of almost 46,000 per year. While the most recent (2017) data show the region’s supply of net new housing growing by 19,000 units (annual completions adjusted for demolitions), in looking ahead over the next couple of years when known housing starts become completions, the expectation is for upwards of 21,000 net new units to become available for occupancy by 2021, slightly below expected demand of 22,600 units at that time.
By 2021, occupancy demand is again expected to continue to exceed the supply of units coming to the market, therefore, current conversation around housing availability and affordability are not likely to fade into the background .
In other words, given expected changes in the regions’ residents and residences, current conversations around housing availability and affordability and, by extension, the region’s ability to remain economically competitive will likely not fade into the background. The region will continue to be challenged to deliver new supply— and the right supply—in a way that efficiently accommodates our growing and changing population. This underscores the requirement that a multi-pronged approach be adopted by all levels of government, the development industry, and individual households so we can efficiently navigate the evolving landscape of both housing supply and demand in this much-desired market.
JANUARY 2019 — P A G E 1 1
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