taking a pass on the fall market Buyers were once again a scarce commodity within the Central Okanagan’s housing market in October, with high interest rates both continuing to weigh on demand and yielding an inventory level above the long-term average.
housing market (technically) favours buyers, and for the second consecutive month (an MOI of less than 5 reflects a sellers’ market; 5-8 MOI reflects balanced conditions; and an MOI of 8 or more reflects a buyers’ market). With two more months to go in the year, and the Bank of Canada likely to stand pat on its policy rate on December 6th, expect the end of 2023 to continue on the same path as the past two months with below- average sales counts, above-average new listings, and inventory that declines by less than it typically would. All told, this should provide some price relief for those looking to get into the market or move up within it.
We noted in the last edition of the rennie review that macroeconomic conditions— in particular, high interest rates—were the driving force behind the Central Okanagan’s housing market dynamics in September. Fast-forward another month and that remained the central theme in October: buyers once again remained on the sidelines leading to atypical sales counts and inventory levels. To wit, there were 262 MLS transactions in the Central Okanagan in October, and while this was a 4% increase over the previous month’s historically low total, it was still 41% fewer sales than the past 10-year October average. Further, it was 8% less than last October’s total, and the lowest transaction count of any October going back to 2010. On the supply side of the ledger, October’s 738 new listings may have been
22% less than September’s total (which is a sharper decline than the typical seasonal 13% drop), but they were still 13% above the long-run October average, and 2% higher than the same month last year. So with historically-low sales counts, and above-average new listings, inventory declined less than one might expect in October—by 3%, in fact, versus the typical September-to-October shrinkage of 9%, to 2,386 total listings. Inventory finished the month 15% above the long- run October average, 18% higher than the same month last year, and was the second- highest monthly total (behind September) since July 2020. This combination of supply attrition and a marginal increase in demand yielded a substantial reduction in the months- of-inventory (MOI) metric, to 9.1 in October. This means that Kelowna’s
3 Copyright ©️ 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of November3, 2023. All data from Association of Interior Realtors & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and 2 can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E.
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