2B — June 18 - July 22, 2021 — New Jersey — M id A tlantic Real Estate Journal


N ew J ersey

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Programexamines the impact of global change on NJ &CRE Geopolitical strategist headlines NAIOP NJ’s series


Our Region.” Zeihan combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology and security to help people understand how the world works and to prepare for an uncertain future. The following are highlights from Zeihan’s thought-provok- ing presentation, during which he challenged assumptions about a wide range of global and local events. On the Peaking of Global- ization • “From roughly 1980 to roughly 2015, the world was at this magical demographic mo-

ment when its economies were either export-led like Korea today, or consumption-led like Mexico today. It was the height of the globalization experience. Especially after 1990, when the Cold War ended, we saw explosive growth in personal incomes, in trade volumes and values and GDPs – by every measure you could imagine. We set records year after year for 35 years. This is the busi - ness environment that we all think of as normal. But it is arguably the most historically abnormal period ever.” • “Global consumption, glob - al production, global capital supplies, are all peaking, and none of them will recover in our lifetimes. And that was before COVID. Right now, all the consumption-led systems of the world are experiencing a recession. If you’re an exporter, you really don’t have anyone to sell to.” On the Future of Trade • “Donald Trump’s trade policies seem almost custom made for the world we find ourselves in. He prioritized five deals: Japan, Korea, Canada, Mexico and the United King- dom. If you’re going to pick five countries, these are the five you want. This is the majority of the American trade portfo- lio. That’s it. We’re done.” • “Both Trump’s and Biden’s trade policies are in favor of do- mestic purchases. Essentially, America is leaving the room, and that leaves everybody else kind of on their own.” • “The Chinese see Biden’s policies regarding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Tibet, as well as ongoing sanctions and trade tariffs, as a full court press against their interests. And they’re not wrong. But things are pretty bad on the Chinese side of the equation. China is now the fastest aging society in the world and their popu- lation has already peaked. They know their financial model doesn’t work and their economic model is collapsing. The Chinese are closing ranks, demonizing outsiders and hun- kering down for an economic collapse.” On Shifting Demographics and the Impact on NJ • “There are three things going on right now. Retiring baby boomers are moving to places that are warmer. Mil- lennials are moving to places where they have elbow room. continued on page 14B

EW BRUNSWICK, NJ — Geopolitical strategist Peter Zei-

han shared insights on issues rang- i n g f r o m shifts in glo- b a l i z a t i o n and demo - graphics to supply chain t r e n d s t o

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