Table 2 Changes in Price Levels (March 2024)
12-Month % Change
1-Month % Change
Consumer Price Index (1982 - 84 = 100)
3.5 3.8 2.7 2.1
0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2
Core Consumer Price Index
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Description: • Consumer Price Index: Measures the average monthly change in the price of a representative basket of goods and services bought by consumers. • Core CPI (CPI less food & energy): Measures the average monthly change in prices for a typical basket of goods, excluding food and energy. • Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): Captures monthly changes in price levels over a wider range of consumer expenditures that account for changes in consumer behavior. • Producer Price Index (PPI): Measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Output includes intermediate goods along with final goods and services. Analysis: • Inflation remains stubbornly high with both CPI and Core CPI remaining well over 3% on an annual basis (and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal). • After falling from 9.0% to 3.3% from July 2022 to July 2023, the monthly year-over-year CPI readings have hovered in the 3 plus range despite the aggressive efforts of the Fed. • The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve follows the most closely, has been relatively flat, lingering between 2.5 and 3.0% since October of last year. • The PPI tracks changes in prices that upstream manufacturers and wholesalers pay for goods during different stages of production. It often can be seen as a leading indicator for future inflation at consumer level. The PPI has been slowly increasing since November 2023 when it reached bottom at 0.8%. Note that PPI only tracks goods, not services.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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