Economic Performance 2017-2024
Kevin M. Bahr CBEI Chief Analyst; Emeritus Professor of Business Sentry School of Business and Economics
The U.S. economy has been the subject of much discussion with differing viewpoints. This report will hopefully shed light on U.S. economic performance by analyzing a broad range of economic variables over the period from January 2017 through March 2024. Changes in these variables, as well as the reasons why these variables changed, will be discussed. Since 2021, the labor market, the stock market, and economic growth have been excellent, while inflation, interest rates, and the housing market created challenges. The Labor Market Since 2021, the U.S. labor market has been extremely strong based on a variety of measures, including job growth, total employment, the unemployment rate, and manufacturing employment. The strong labor market has been driven by consumer spending which accounts for approximately two-thirds of economic growth. Consumer spending has benefitted from economic expansion, government fiscal programs and consistent job growth since January 2021. Job Growth The table below shows monthly and total annual job growth from January 2017 through March 2024, and the ranking of years by total job growth. 2021, 2022, and 2023 were ranked 1, 2, and 3, respectively, for annual job growth over the period 2017 through 2023. The last month with job losses was December 2020. Since then, every month from January 2021 through March 2024 posted job gains. The job growth in 2021 was at least partially related to the massive job losses in 2020 due to the pandemic. Total employment had peaked in February 2020 at nearly 152.4 million, but the onslaught of COVID caused total employment to fall to only 130.4 million in April, a loss of nearly 22 million jobs in two months. Employment growth rapidly increased with the economic rebound beginning in May, but by the end of the year the economic rebound had run out of steam. Job gains were reduced each month beginning in July, with job losses occurring in December 2020. After peaking at 14.8% in April, the unemployment rate steadily declined but was still at 6.7% in December. 2020 was the worst year for jobs this century, with job losses of 9.2 million for the year. 2021 and 2022 were the top two years for job growth this century, with 7.2 and 4.5 million jobs added, respectively. The job growth in 2021 was at least partially due to the low total employment caused by the pandemic in 2020 and the return to a more normal economy in 2021. The nearly 7.3 million jobs added in 2021 reduced the unemployment rate from 6.4% in January to only 3.9% in December. The job growth in 2022 and 2023 was particularly impressive as significant job gains continued despite the growth that already occurred in 2021. The 7.5 million jobs added for the two years of 2022 and 2023 exceeded the 6.4 million jobs added over the three- year period 2017-2019. Job growth continued in the first quarter of 2024, with over 800,000 jobs added.
Central Wisconsin Report - Spring 2024
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