contraction caused by COVID in 2020 caused a significant decline in manufacturing employment. Manufacturing employment fell to only 11.419 million in April 2020, dropping over 1.3 million since December 2019. Although manufacturing employment began to rebound in May, it was only at 12.194 million in December 2020, a decline of nearly 5% from the 12.798 million in December 2019. Growth in manufacturing employment returned in 2021 with the post-COVID economic rebound. Between January 2021 and March 2024, manufacturing employment increased from 12.188 million to 12.956 million in March 2024, an increase of approximately 6.3% and nearly 800,000 jobs. In 2024, manufacturing employment was at its highest level since the financial crisis of 2008. Unemployment Rate The table below shows the unemployment rate from January 2017 through March 2024. After starting the period at 4.7% in January 2017, the unemployment rate steadily declined to 3.5% in September 2019 and hovered between 3.5% and 3.6% until an upward shift due to COVID in March 2020. In April 2020 the unemployment rate hit a record high 14.8%, which surpassed the previous high of 10.8% in 1982. The economic recovery began in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.7% in November. However, the economic recovery stalled in December 2020 as job losses returned and the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.7%. The economic rebound returned with job gains and a declining unemployment rate in January 2021. The unemployment rate gradually declined and hit a low of 3.4% in both January and April of 2023, the lowest it had been since 1969. The unemployment rate was below 4.0% from February 2022 through March 2024. The streak of 26 consecutive months with an unemployment rate below 4.0% was the longest monthly streak since the late 1960s.
Unemployment Rate January 2017 – March 2024 (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Jan 4.7 4.0 4.0 3.6 6.4 4.0 3.4 3.7
Feb 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.5 6.2 3.8 3.6 3.9
Mar 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.4 6.1 3.6 3.5 3.8
Apr 4.4 4.0 3.7
May
Jun 4.3 4.0 3.6
Jul
Aug 4.4 3.8 3.6 8.4 5.1 3.6 3.8
Sep 4.3 3.7 3.5 7.8 4.7 3.5 3.8
Oct 4.2 3.8 3.6 6.8 4.5 3.6 3.8
Nov 4.2 3.8 3.6 6.7 4.1 3.6 3.7
Dec 4.1 3.9 3.6 6.7 3.9 3.5 3.7
4.4 3.8 3.6
4.3 3.8 3.7
14.8 13.2 11.0 10.2
6.1 3.7 3.4
5.8 3.6 3.7
5.9 3.6 3.6
5.4 3.5 3.5
Real Wage Growth Strong wage growth and declining inflation has contributed to real wages increasing since February 2023, as wage growth has exceeded inflation. The following chart shows the 3-month moving average of median hourly wage growth (red line) relative to the annualized inflation rate (blue line) as measured by the Consumer Price Index since 2017. Wage growth outpaced inflation between January 2017 and March 2021, continuing a trend that began in May 2012. Between April 2021 and January 2023 inflation exceeded wage growth; consequently, real wages declined. However, the trend reversed in early 2023, and real wages have increased as the growth in hourly wages has exceeded the rate of inflation since February 2023.
Central Wisconsin Report - Spring 2024
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