2A — November 24 - December 7, 2017 — Shopping Centers — M id A tlantic

Real Estate Journal


M id A tlantic Real Estate Journal

M id A tlantic R eal E state J ournal Publisher, Conference Producer . .............Linda Christman AVP, Conference Producer ...........................Lea Christman Associate Publisher ......................................... Steve Kelley Associate Publisher ........................................... Kim Brunet Associate Publisher ..................................... Belinda Kachel Senior Editor/Graphic Artist ..........................Karen Vachon Office Manager ............................................. Miriam Buttrick Contributing Columnists: ...Brian T. Lovett, CPA, CGMA, JD, Withum; Glenn Ebersole; Lisa Cassidy, Orwak North America; Lee E. Wasserman, LEW Corporation; George Crawford, Green Partners; Missy Henriksen, National Association of Landscape Professionals Mid Atlantic R eal E state J ournal ~ Published Semi-Monthly Periodicals postage paid at Rockland, Massachusetts and additional mailing offices Postmaster send address change to: Mid Atlantic Real Estate Journal 350 Lincoln St, Suite 1105, Hingham, MA 02043 USPS #22-358 | Vol. 29 Issue 22 Subscription rates: $99 - one year, $198 - two years, $4 - single copy REPORT AN ERROR IMMEDIATELY MARE Journal will not be responsible for more than one incorrect insertion Phone: 781-740-2900 | Fax: 781-740-2929 www.marejournal.com The views expressed by contributing columnists are not necessarily representative of the Mid Atlantic Real Estate Journal www.mar journal.com


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Revathi Greenwood

Strong Consumer Confidence, Job Growth & Global Economic Resilience Create “Goldilocks” Economy T he U.S. economy has entered a Goldilocks scenario, one that is not too hot or too cold, but “just about right,” Cushman & Wakefield’s U.S. Macro Forecast reveals. Real GDP is on track to grow slightly over 2% in 2017, generating nearly 2 million net new jobs this year. The economy’s temperature also seems to be “just about right” for consumers. Confidence is hovering at a near-15-year high, retail sales are acceler- ating at a 5% rate year-over- year and credit is flowing. In addition, the global economy is also resurgent. World nominal GDP growth is expected to be four times greater this year than it was last year, bolster- ing global trade and business confidence. But by many metrics, the economy is certainly not “too hot.” Inflation is one suchmea- sure. Despite a low unemploy- ment rate, wage growth re- mains mostly muted and core inflation remains stubbornly below the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. History suggests that when the labor market is near full employ- ment, core inflation should be higher; however, in August, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—the core Personal Core Expenditures (PCE) in- dex —was up only 1.4% year- over-year. info@navesinkrivercapital.com www.navesinkrivercapital.com Jonathan L. Hornik Lysar Financial Services, Inc. 80 Main St. •West Orange, NJ 07052 P: 973-325-2500 • F: 973-325-7548 Samuel Pepper spepper@metropolitan-mortgage.com P: 973-325-2500 x 1104 Meridian Capital Group, LLC New Jersey Office 517 Route 1 South • S ite 4000 Iselin, NJ 08830 P: 732-301-3200 • F: 732-301-3299 sales@meridiancapital.com www.meridiancapital.com Navesink River Capital, LLC We specialize in Multi-Family, Office, Retail, Industrial, Mixed-Use, Healthcare and S lf Storage 83 South St. • Suite 302 • Freehold, NJ 07728 P: 855-778-1000 Newcastl Financial Company LLC I ternational Blvd. • Suite 400 • Mahwah, NJ 07495 P: 201-378-0118 • F: 201-584-9173 victoria@newcastlefn.com www.newcastlefn.com The 504 Company 2050 Center Ave. • Suite 375 • Fort Lee, NJ 07024 P: 201-346-0300 info@the504company.com Hector DaCosta “While this may be related to transitory factors, such as pass-through effects from low- er oil prices, a one-off decline in medical costs and cell phone prices, the reality is that infla- tion, or lack thereof, has been baffling economists for years, “ said Revathi Greenwood, Cushman &Wakefield Ameri- cas Head of Research. “Com- plicating matters further are Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which will distort monthly data and make it very difficult for the Fed to get a clean read on economic performance.” Added Rebecca Rockey, Head of Americas Forecast- ing, “The next interest rate hike, which was previously expected in December, now looks less likely. Prospects for 2018 look good. Downside risks lie mostly on the policy side, but assuming there is a bit of fiscal stimulus, real GDP will finally flirt with that 3% threshold next year, at least on a quarterly basis. There is a decent chance that the current economic expansion will be longest in the post WWII era.” Property market funda-

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mentals are performing well, aside from retail, which con- tinues to face headwinds from eCommerce. Demand metrics such as net absorption are on par with, if not slightly off, last year’s levels. Construc- tion will soon start to drive vacancy rates upward, but any increase will be gradual. Leasing markets will be car- ried by the broad and steady health of the labor markets and consumers. The wave of new supply that hits in 2017 and 2018 will put a cap on rent growth, and a shift towards a more occupier friendly market should be expected in most U.S. cities next year. The capital markets are a bit slower in terms of sales vol- ume, but pricing continues to hold, and investors continue to seek opportunities in primary and secondary cities. However, the tenuous interest rate out- look adds to the uncertainty in capital markets. Even so, supportive global monetary policy and relatively low inter- est rates are expected to drive sufficient capital into CRE over the coming years. n

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