NEWS DIGEST
One central aim was to test whether misperceptions about opponents’ views fuel this hostility. Participants were asked to estimate the positions of opposing-group supporters on sensitive issues including abortion, Amazon deforestation and affirmative action. The results demonstrate that participants often overestimated how extreme the other side’s views were. However, when people were given accurate information about what opponents believed, hostility fell significantly. For example, supporters of Bolsonaro estimated that more than 81 per cent of Lula supporters backed legalising abortion in the first trimester, whereas the study found the actual figure was 46 per cent. “Affective polarisation is not a fixed characteristic of a population. It rises and falls – and it responds to information. When we show people real data on what the other side actually believes, rejection tends to decrease,” noted Goldszmidt, who specialises in quantitative methods applied to the social sciences, behavioural change and policy evaluation. The study was published in Nature Communications and carried out in collaboration with researchers from Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government and Imperial Business School, among others. CD “Affective polarisation is not a fixed characteristic of a population. It rises and falls – and it responds to information”
NEW STUDY DEMONSTRATES HOW MISPERCEPTIONS FUEL POLITICAL POLARISATION
five survey waves between April 2022 and February 2023, covering the period before, during and after Brazil’s 2022 presidential election between Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. It found that negative feelings between political groups intensified as the election approached, peaked during the campaign and declined afterwards. Goldszmidt and his co-authors focused on affective polarisation: rejection, distrust and hostility towards people associated with rival political groups, which can weaken social co-existence, hinder co‑operation and deepen divisions.
SCHOOL Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas, Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV EBAPE), Brazil
study co-authored by FGV EBAPE professor Rafael Goldszmidt has
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examined how sociopolitical polarisation changes around the time of elections and how mistaken beliefs about opposing political groups deepen hostility. The research followed citizens with different political views through
7 Business Impact • ISSUE 4 • 2026
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