Think-Realty-Magazine-June-2020

As of the February 2020 BLS unemployment data, the

this week. This brings the U.S. to over 26 million jobs lost in five weeks, temporarily bringing mid-April national unemployment close to 15 percent. Economists estimate the worst-case unemployment rate could reach as high as 20 percent to 30 percent in May. By comparison, unemployment peaked near 10 percent nationally during the 2008 Recession, where Charlotte unemployment peaked at 12.9 percent.

be restored in the next few months as the economy reboots. President Trump provided a three-phase guideline to reopen the economy, although state governors will make the call on timing for the rollout. Many states are projected to kick off the program in the first week of May. More details are coming in daily, however portions of the workforce will still be waiting for the subsequent phases. RentRange analysts have attempted to forecast the employment rates for the 3-6 month post-restart employment measures. Based on current information as of mid-April, our forecast for Charlotte shows approximately 11.7 percent unemployment.

unemployment rate for the Charlotte MSA comes in at 3.1 percent. That is slightly below the national average of 3.5 percent and down considerably from the 4.4 percent average of five years ago. UNEMPLOYMENTUPDATES THROUGHAPRIL 18TH The Department of Labor released their unemployment insurance weekly claim report for the week of Apr 18th showing another 4.24 million people filed unemployment claims

“SNAPBACK” EMPLOYMENT FORECAST The majority of these unemployment numbers are temporary, and most will

Estimated 6-12 month Snapback Employment Predictions for Charlotte (Feb 2020 Industry Stats)

TOTAL WORKFORCE SIZE CHARLOTTE

1,281,636

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

6-MONTH “SNAPBACK” JOB LOSSES VS FEB.

EST. 6 MONTH EM- PLOYMENT LOSS BY INDUSTRY

EST. REMAINING EMPLOYED

INDUSTRY

AVG. WAGES

Mining, Logging and Construction

69,100

$52,113

-10 percent

(6,910)

62,190

Durable Goods

64,600

$38,380

10 percent

6,460

71,060

Non-Durable Goods

47,400

$30,160

0 percent

-

47,400

Wholesale Trade

59,400

$35,240

-5 percent

(2,970)

56,430

Retail Trade

127,000

$47,880

-20 percent

(25,400)

101,600

Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities

61,900

$35,240

5 percent

3,095

64,995

Information

24,500

$92,470

-5 percent

(1,225)

23,275

Financial Activities

105,300

$103,137

-5 percent

(5,265)

100,035

Professional and Business Services

211,200 129,200 143,300

$98,799 $49,126 $27,988

-5 percent -5 percent -20 percent

(10,560)

200,640 122,740 114,640

Education and Health Services

(6,460)

Leisure and Hospitality

(28,660)

Other Services

42,300

$41,500

-5 percent

(2,115)

40,185

Government

157,900

$40,643

-10 percent

(15,790)

142,110

Total Nonfarm

1,243,100

1,147,300

Estimated Unemployment 6mo-1yr “snapback” low

11.71%

Current Unemployment Rate

3.1%

*Information and statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data, Department of Labor report, Census/ACS Tables and RentRange® data sources.

Home Price Metrics

to 2007 period, Charlotte single- family home values showed more moderate growth of 3.3 percent per year, for a total increase of over 26 percent. During the 2007 to 2012 Recession years, the Charlotte market pulled back 19 percent, giving up most of the pre-recession gains. Charlotte overall

CHARLOTTEHOMEVALUES THROUGHFEBRUARY2020 Given the current economic climate due to COVID-19, the real estate industry wants to find out where we go from here. Looking at past performance as well as current conditions can give us a clue. Looking back 20 years to the 2000

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