RENNIE OUTLOOK 2025
housing: improved purchasing power to drive more sales RESALE COUNTS While in hindsight our forecast for sales in 2024 proved to be a little too optimistic, the Vancouver Region did see more activity than the prior year. At a little over 40,000, sales were up 0.6% to end two consecutive years of decline. A string of interest rate cuts through the second half of the year was ultimately what drove higher demand. Sales in the latter six months of the year were up 8% relative to the same period in 2023 versus a 5% decline in the first six months. With sales firmly on a different trajectory through the second half of 2024, we expect that momentum to carry into the new year. Conditions are expected to improve even further courtesy of additional interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and recent adjustments to mortgage insurance rules.
OUR 2025 OUTLOOK
Increased purchasing power, pent-up demand, and elevated inventory levels will support higher sales in 2025, with a total of 50,000 MLS sales predicted for the year—up 24% from 2024. We expect sales to reach 16,000 for detached homes, 10,000 for townhomes, and 24,000 for condos.
PRE-SALE COUNTS A number of new government housing policies implemented in 2024–including short-term rental restrictions, an increase to the capital gains inclusion rate, the home flipping tax, and changes to the Residential Tenancy Act–were especially limiting to pre-sale investor-buyers. With that, activity in the Vancouver Region fell to its lowest level since 2019 with 9,740 pre-sales, a 16% decline year-over-year and 37% below the prior 10-year average.
Pre-sale activity will be supported by increasing resale counts and prices, and further declines in mortgage rates.
OUR 2025 OUTLOOK
We expect pre-sales in the Vancouver Region to rise modestly in 2025 alongside improving resale market activity. Overall, we anticipate a total of 12,200 pre-sales this year, including 4,500 concrete homes, 5,700 woodframe homes, and 2,000 townhomes.
Copyright © 2025 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 29, 2025. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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