RENNIE OUTLOOK 2025
demographics: a paradigm shift
TOTAL POPULATION While 2024 full-year counts won’t be available until the end of April, the first three quarters of population data for Canada tell us that any notion we may have had that we’d experience a material drop-off in growth last year following consecutive record-setting expansions in 2022 and 2023 was way off. Indeed, driven by international migration, we estimate that Canada added almost 700,000 people in 2024 (on a net basis)—the third-most on record. Similarly, in Metro Vancouver, growth is estimated to have flirted with previous historical highs, with the region adding more than 90,000 people (behind only 2022’s and 2023’s additions). This being said, changes to Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan that would see the target number of new permanent residents shrink in 2025 from previous levels, and the share of non-permanent residents in Canada driven to 5% by 2027 (from north of 7% today), will have significant implications for Canada’s–and Metro Vancouver’s—headline population counts.
OUR 2025 OUTLOOK
After crossing the 3-million-person mark in 2024, Metro Vancouver is projected to experience population decline in 2025 of more than 20,000 people. This would largely be the result of significant net outflows of non-permanent residents and intraprovincial migrants.
IMMIGRATION After steadily raising its permanent resident targets to a peak of 485,000 in 2024, Canada’s federal government is now targeting a reduction in the number of admitted permanent residents over the next three years: 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027. This policy shift is intended to address a re-balancing of two competing realities: a) that the past three years of historically-rapid population growth has imparted significant strains on (mostly) urban Canadian infrastructure and services such as housing, education, health care, and transportation, and b) that an aging population means we must add people through migration if our labour force is to continue to grow.
OUR 2025 OUTLOOK
Lower immigration targets in 2025 (and beyond) will have direct impacts on Canadian metro areas. We expect Metro Vancouver to add 48,000 permanent residents this coming year, the fewest since 2022.
Copyright © 2025 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 29, 2025. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 7
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