RENNIE OUTLOOK 2025
NON-PERMANENT RESIDENTS In both absolute terms and as a share of Canada’s total population, non-permanent residents (NPRs) have been increasing in significance for the past 30 years. After declining in the early-1990s, the proportion of Canada’s population represented by NPRs began to rise again, from a bottoming-out at 0.79% in 1997 to then passing 1% in 2000, 2% in 2011, 3% in 2017, and 4% in 2021. Since then, the number of NPRs has surged: between 2022 and 2024, the number of NPRs in Canada rose by 1.7 million–39% more than the 1.2 million added in the 50 years spanning 1972-2021. As a share of population, the number of NPRs in Canada has risen to 7.4% most recently. Changes to the federal government’s Immigration Levels Plan aim to limit NPRs in Canada to 5% of the population by 2027. The implied net loss of more than 1 million NPRs nationally over the coming two years will have out-sized impacts on urban areas, including and especially Metro Vancouver, which is a hub for both international students and temporary workers.
OUR 2025 OUTLOOK
Following three years of historically-high NPR additions, we expect the NPR population in Metro Vancouver to decline by more than 60,000 in 2025. The impacts will be felt by both the rental housing market and the region’s post-secondary institutions and language schools.
DOMESTIC MIGRATION For Metro Vancouver, domestic migration–the combination of interprovincial migration (people moving between this region and other provinces/territories) and intraprovincial migration (people moving between this region and other parts of British Columbia)–is almost always a drag. A drag on population growth, that is: over the past (almost) three decades, in only two years was net domestic migration in the black for Metro Vancouver, and that was back in 2008 and 2009. Before and since then? Negative, with some years of positive net inflows of people from other parts of Canada outside of BC consistently being dwarfed by the movement of people from Metro Vancouver to (more affordable) places in the Fraser Valley, the Interior, and on Vancouver Island.
With home prices and rents having surged in the aftermath of the pandemic, annual net domestic outflows have peaked in the past few years at between 15,000 and 17,000.
OUR 2025 OUTLOOK
While we expect a modest net inflow of 3,000 people coming to Metro Vancouver from places in Canada outside of BC this year, the continued net movement of residents from this region to other parts of BC—to the tune of 18,000 people—will yield another year of negative net domestic migration in 2025, with a loss of 15,000 people.
Copyright © 2025 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 29, 2025. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 8
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