RENNIE OUTLOOK 2025
jobs, wages, inflation, & rates: some pain, some gain EMPLOYMENT Since Metro Vancouver shed 114,000 jobs in 2020—the fallout from social-distancing policies related to the pandemic—employment has grown continuously, though at a generally slowing pace. Indeed, 2021 saw 120,000 jobs added (more than making up for the prior year’s substantial contraction), followed by 47,000 in 2022, 61,000 in 2023, and 37,500 in 2024. Notably, the trajectory of growth in the region’s working-age population followed a different path, rising sixfold between 2021 and 2024, from 18,000 to more than 120,000. In the year ahead, the directional trend in employment will continue as growth in the region’s population stalls and, in fact, goes in reverse. That said, we expect the potential net loss of jobs to be mitigated by the region’s labour force participation rate returning to 2023 levels (at 68%), up from where it ended 2024 (66%).
OUR 2025 OUTLOOK
With a working-age population that will decline in parallel with an otherwise persistently sluggish economy, employment in Metro Vancouver is expected to fall by almost 11,000 jobs in 2025–the first annual decline since the pandemic and the first non-pandemic contraction since 2008.
UNEMPLOYMENT Like a frog in a pot of slowly-boiling water, Canada’s labour market has been steadily deteriorating since mid-2022. During this period, per-capita GDP and retail spending has declined (even when unadjusted for inflation), and the country’s unemployment rate has risen from a nadir of 4.8% to its current 6.7%. While employment has continued to grow during this time, this growth has been dwarfed by the expansion in Canada’s (working-age) population–the consequence of immigration policy run amok. A rising unemployment rate nationally has been the unsurprising result, with Metro Vancouver experiencing a similar trend: between September 2022 and December 2024, the region’s unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 6.5%.
OUR 2025 OUTLOOK
Excluding consideration of US tariffs on Canadian exports, we expect Canada’s and Metro Vancouver’s labour markets to be challenged in 2025. A continued rise in the region’s unemployment rate is likely, with our models suggesting it could reach 7.4% by year-end.
Copyright © 2025 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 29, 2025. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 9
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