NAM Cites Powell (CONT’D FROM PAGE 6)
The manufacturing sentiment surveys released last week speak to the challenges faced in the sector, with ac- tivity often at the weakest pace in roughly two years. New orders declined in each. At the same time, manufacturers felt cautiously optimistic for the next six months, with ex- pectations of reduced or moderated pricing pressures. After dropping to a record low in June (50.0), the In- dex of Consumer Sentiment has risen for two consecutive months, increasing from 51.5 in July to 58.2 in August, ac- cording to final data from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. Even with gains in the past two releas- es, consumer confidence remains lower than desired, and Americans continued to worry about inflation, even as ex- pectations for price growth moderated in August. Personal consumption expenditures edged up 0.1 per- cent in July, the weakest monthly reading since December. Despite some softening in the latest data, personal spend- ing increased 8.7 percent year-over-year. Meanwhile, per- sonal income rose 0.2 percent in July. With that said, man- ufacturing wages and salaries increased 0.9 percent, with 8.7 percent growth year-over-year. After soaring to a record $126.81 billion in March, the U.S. goods trade deficit edged lower for the fourth straight month, down from $98.59 billion in June to $89.06 billion in July, according to preliminary figures. In July, goods ex- ports edged down from a record $181.35 billion to $180.97 billion, and goods imports dropped from $279.94 billion to $270.03 billion.
which was the fastest pace of monthly growth since Sep- tember 2005. Energy prices fell 4.8 percent in July, help- ing to pull the headline index lower. Food costs increased 1.3 percent, continuing to rise solidly year to date. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE deflator inched up 0.1 percent in July. Overall, the PCE deflator has risen 6.3 percent over the past 12 months, decelerating from the 6.8 percent year-over-year pace in June, which was the strongest since January 1982. The current outlook is for the core PCE deflator to be 3.8 percent year-over- year in December. On the manufacturing front, new orders for durable goods were essentially unchanged in the latest data, re- maining near a record level. On a year-over-year basis, new durable goods orders have jumped 10.9 percent since July 2021, or 7.2 percent with transportation equip- ment excluded. Core capital goods orders rose 0.4 per- cent to a record level, up 8.5 percent year-over-year. The durable goods data provide mixed comfort. On the one hand, the manufacturing sector has proved to be sur- prisingly resilient over the past year in the face of numer- ous challenges, and that can be seen in the year-over-year figures. Yet, growth has slowed in some areas, even with some new records being set. It is also notable that these figures are in nominal terms, with higher prices likely inflat- ing some of this growth.
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8 September 5, 2022
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