MARKET REPORT
Assuming a 2.44-billion-pound crop, shipments and commitments now account for 91% of total supply compared to 84% from the previous year. The industry is on pace to achieve a carryout of around 485 million pounds. This estimation factors in a 2% loss and exemption but actual damage this season has been greater than 4%. The additional damage will impact the 2024 carry-in driving this number down below 450 million pounds. This would put stocks/use ratios at 16% to 17%, a level not observed in the past five years. CROP On July 10, the USDA Objective Estimate was published, forecasting 2.8 billion pounds for the 2024 crop. This projection is 7% lower than the Subjective Estimate and 13% higher than the 2023 crop. The forecast is based on 1.38 million bearing acres. This estimate unquestionably caught the market by surprise, prompting prices to firm since its release. Crop development and quality remain a top focus for the industry. Recent heatwaves in California have raised concerns about the impact on the maturing crop, chief among them being a slowdown or halting of the hull split stage. A prolonged hull split may increase susceptibility to insect damage, a concern already on the minds of growers. The impact on harvest timing remains uncertain at this point.
Market Perspective The June position report met industry expectations and maintained a strong pace as the crop year nears its end. Remaining inventories consist of lower quality almonds, leading to limited offers, making for a tight transition to the new crop. The Objective Estimate firmed prices with a smaller forecasted 2024 crop. This, coupled with a favorable carryout, will draw supply closer to demand and contribute to price stability in the global market. With minimal inventories at destination, demand is expected to persist in the weeks leading to harvest. Moving forward, the industry will continue to evaluate the 2024 crop. Post Objective Estimate, our attention now turns to price discovery as market activity is expected to increase in the coming weeks.
Laura Gerhard, Vice President of Ingredients and International Branded, Blue Diamond Growers
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ALMOND FACTS
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