The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | January 2026
Africa
The number of reported kidnaps in Nigeria saw a slight decrease in the last quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in 2024. However, Kogi and Kwara states, which recorded periodic incidents over 2024, saw a marked escalation in kidnap activity over the last quarter. The increase was likely driven by the displacement of bandit groups from their operational areas, such as the North-West region and Niger state, due to security operations. Nigeria also saw a number of high-profile mass kidnaps (where five or more victims are abducted in a single incident) in November, including from schools in Niger and Kebbi states. Mass school abductions will continue over the coming quarters, as kidnap groups view pupils as “soft targets” and such operations as a tactic to demand high ransoms for a single incident. Commercial personnel in the Sahel will continue to face risks from arbitrary detention by government forces, despite several high-profile releases. Burkinabe authorities in late October 2025 released eight humanitarian workers from a Dutch NGO, including two French nationals, following their arrest in late July, on accusations of espionage. The last quarter of 2025 also saw the resolution of a two-year dispute between the Malian junta and an international mining corporation, leading to the release of the company’s employees detained since November 2024. French citizens, especially those with intelligence or security backgrounds, will continue to face a significant detention risk over the coming quarters, amid strained relations between France and the Sahelian military-led governments. Humanitarian staff of NGOs banned by the juntas, as well as foreign mining operators, will also remain under scrutiny in 2026.
The deterioration in the security environment in Sudan’s Darfur region, exacerbated by the fall of El-Fasher to the RSF in October, will escalate the number of financially motivated kidnaps-for-ransom and political detentions by the RSF. The Darfur region has remained a long-standing kidnap hotspot in Sudan, and the fall of El-Fasher has consolidated the RSF’s control over most of the region. Humanitarian personnel operating in the region will continue to face scrutiny from the RSF, on suspicions of political affiliation with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Financially motivated criminal groups will also exploit the permissive security environment to engage in the crime as a source of revenue. Express kidnapping will continue to pose a threat to foreign nationals in East Africa, particularly in Tanzania and Kenya . For instance, in October, criminals abducted an Irish tourist in Dar es Salaam in a premeditated scam. The perpetrators forced the victim to withdraw and transfer approximately EUR 3,150 (USD 3,700) before releasing him. Both Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Nairobi in Kenya will continue to see sporadic rates of express kidnaps over the coming quarters, though the crime remains significantly underreported. Low-level criminals, who rely on the crime to generate revenue, will be the main perpetrators of express kidnaps.
68 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 75 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 19 sectors affected
Key developments October to December 2025
The number of reported kidnaps across Sub-Saharan Africa saw a 9% decrease in the last quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in 2024, driven by a slowdown in reported kidnaps in key regional hotspots, such as Nigeria, Cameroon and South Africa. Nigeria recorded frequent kidnaps, with mass school abductions continuing to be employed as a tactic by bandit groups. Arbitrary detention risks to commercial personnel in the Sahel will persist, especially for French nationals, who will continue to be highly scrutinised by the region’s military-led governments. Humanitarian personnel operating in Sudan’s Darfur region will face heightened risks of kidnapping-for- ransom and political detentions in the coming year, exacerbated by the fall of El-Fasher to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Express kidnapping will remain a threat to foreign nationals in Tanzania and Kenya.
04
Copyright © Control Risks – Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Made with FlippingBook - Online Brochure Maker