prices beginning to rise as demand outpaces supply Supported by solid labour market dynamics and a growing population, sales are up, inventory remains constrained, and prices are beginning to trend upwards.
Columbia shows that province added more people (approximately 34,000) in the most recent three months than in any quarter dating back to 1971, when data were first collected. This continues to drive the demand for housing, along with a tight labour market in Metro Vancouver: the region’s latest unemployment rate, at 4.5%, is the lowest among larger metros in Canada, indicating that those who are looking for work are finding it. Both short-term and and longer- term interest rates remain historically low, with global economic uncertainty putting additional downward pressure on rates. Together, these features of our market landscape point to continued growth in demand generally, and resale counts more specifically. The evidence suggests that first- time home buyers and previously-sidelined buyers are (re-)entering the fray and, as a result, the spring market is shaping up to be a very active one. The longer-term trajectory for the market also remains positive thanks to the region’s growing population and workforce.
On the flip side, January’s inventory was down by 24% compared to the same time last year, marking four straight months of year- over-year contractions. Anecdotal evidence, particularly for resale condos, suggests that the prevalence of multiple-offer scenarios, subject-free offers, and offers above sellers’ asking prices are on the rise, and this is beginning to create tailwinds for prices. More specifically, for the first time since December 2018, the year-over-year change in the region’s benchmark condo price was positive in January 2020 (up by 0.9% vs January 2019). A similar trend has been seen for detached homes and townhomes. Underpinning the market’s latest trajectory are good, if not great, economic and demographic fundamentals. On the population front, the latest data for British
The calendar may now read 2020, but the supply and demand dynamics that were established in the second half of 2019 have clearly carried over into January. This in turn has set the table for what is likely to be an active market throughout the rest of the year, in no small part due to the Vancouver region’s resilient underlying fundamentals. While January 2019’s sales count left something to be desired—the 1,839 sales in that month were the lowest for any January in a decade—sales in January 2020 were 35% higher, bringing them virtually in line with the past-decade average for the month. January marked the 7th consecutive month of year- over-year sales increases, with sales across all home types, all price ranges, and throughout most Vancouver region sub-markets outpacing the trend from one year ago.
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 6, 2020. All data from RealEstateBoardof Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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