The case for prevention IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASING DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE ALONGSIDE SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, THE CASE FOR PROACTIVE PREVENTION IN ADULT SOCIAL CARE IS STRONGER THAN EVER.
The adult social care sector in England is under more pressure than ever before, in part due to a combination of continued financial pressure alongside growth in demand for support. • Continued financial pressure for adult social care: • The recent ADASS Autumn Survey 2024 found that currently, 81% of councils expect to overspend their adult social care budgets this year (up from 72% in 2023/24) with an estimated total overspend of £564 million. • Although the 2024 Autumn budget allocated an additional £600m for children’s and adult social care, there is a widespread view that this is unlikely to be sufficient to cover rising costs. Changes to National Insurance • Over the next 20 years the number of people aged 85 or above is expected to increase by almost 75%. Individuals aged 85+ are more likely to be in receipt of care, and that care is more likely to be in a bedded setting (60% for 85+ vs 35% for 65-74 year olds). • If change is not made, care demand from those aged 65+ will rise by 80% over 20 years. contributions for example will create a new pressure. • In parallel, demand for social care support is rising:
Nonetheless, there is also strong cause for optimism. There is clear evidence that a more preventative approach can help to manage the impact of rising demand: • The Local Government Association predicts that investing in earlier preventative support in social care would improve people’s lives and save £3.17 for every pound spent, saving £11billion if scaled up nationally. • The previous Government’s Champion for Personalised Prevention found that applying known, evidence-based preventative interventions earlier and more broadly could add 20 more healthy days per person, per year, in the UK - a 33% reduction in ill health - unlocking a £320 billion rise in GDP over 20 years. • The Chancellor in her November 2024 Mansion House speech committed to using digital technology and prevention strategies more effectively to manage system pressures, as a central focus of the second Phase of the Spending Review.
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