Manufacturing PMI Down 1.7 Percent; Overall Economy Expands Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The report was issued August 1 by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Manage- ment Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The Manufacturing PMI registered 46.8 percent in July, down 1.7 percentage points from the 48.5 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in ex- pansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.4 percent, 1.9 percent- age points lower than the 49.3 percent recorded in June. The July reading of the Production Index (45.9 percent) is 2.6 percentage points lower than June’s figure of 48.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.9 percent, up 0.8 percentage point compared to the reading of 52.1 percent in June. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.7 per- cent, equaling its June reading. The Employment Index registered 43.4 percent, down 5.9 percentage points from June’s figure of 49.3 percent. “The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slowing de- liveries, registering 52.6 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher than the 49.8 percent recorded in June. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM Report On Business index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index regis- tered 44.5 percent, down 0.9 percentage point compared to June's reading of 45.4 percent. “The New Export Orders Index reading of 49 percent is 0.2 percentage point higher than the 48.8 percent regis- tered in June. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory in July, registering 48.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than the 48.5 percent reported in June.” Fiore continues, “U.S. manufacturing activity entered deeper into contraction. Demand was weak again, output declined, and inputs stayed generally accommodative. Demand slowing was reflected by the (1) New Orders In- dex dropping further into contraction, (2) New Export Or- ders Index continuing in contraction, (3) Backlog of Orders Index remaining in strong contraction territory, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index moving lower to the higher end of ‘too low.’ Output declined compared to June, with a combined 8.5-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI calculation. Panelists’ companies re- duced production levels month over month as head-count reductions continued in July. Inputs — defined as suppli- er deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — generally CONTINUED ON PAGE 36
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