a bumper crop of sales in september Home sales in Greater Victoria increased from August to September for just the fourth time in 25 years, a sign that buyers are already responding to interest rate cuts.
The positive news on the supply front is that strong new listings activity in September pushed active MLS listings higher by 7% to 2,708. This was 35% above the prior 10-year September average (of 2,001) and, barring slightly higher inventory in June, this marked the most inventory in the region since August 2015 (2,792). Prospective buyers have ample options to consider when looking for their ideal home, which is quite a contrast to conditions over the past decade. Finally, with inflation under control and a shift in focus by the Bank of Canada toward supporting the labour market and the economy, more interest rate cuts are expected through the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. The decline in interest rates to-date has already led to material savings and increased purchasing power for borrowers (see last month’s Victoria rennie review for details), and further cuts will make it a little easier still for buyers to find that next home.
The real estate market has been a challenging space of late. Buyers have had to juggle generationally-high interest rates with home prices near their highest levels ever. The cooling effect this has had on demand has made it harder for sellers to part with their homes, and caught in the middle are all of the stakeholders involved in delivering and selling much-needed housing who have had a tough time doing so. Focus too much on these challenges, however, and you may have missed some of the positive currents moving through Greater Victoria’s housing market of late. There were 554 MLS sales last month, which was an increase of 3% from August following three consecutive months of declines. A small bump like this might not sound like much, but it’s notable when considering that this was just the fourth time in the last 25 years that sales increased from August to September (they typically fall by 9%). Perhaps this is evidence
that the three interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada have already started to pull some buyers off the sidelines. Additionally, sales in September were higher by 16% compared to a year ago marking the third consecutive month of year-over-year sales increases. Notably, this trend has been entirely absent in other major BC markets. On that note, relative to Vancouver and Kelowna, Victoria sales have fared the best throughout these challenging market conditions. Year-to- date, there have been 5,142 sales in Greater Victoria, which was up 3% from the 4,977 sales tallied through the first nine months of 2023 (note that current year-to-date sales do remain 18% below the past-decade average of 6,292 sales). In contrast, year-to-date sales in Vancouver and Kelowna were down 6% and 13% from 2023, respectively. Relative to their prior 10-year averages, they were down 23% and 32%, respectively.
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