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DECEMBER 2023
Egg
Why Rising Yields Are Changing the Game STOCKS, BONDS, OR NEITHER?
We know stocks are real assets, just like we know real estate is, and I think that knowledge is one reason why people have made this recent shift. Bond yields have come up to be sure, but that’s because they’ve been damaged as being seen as the ultimate hedge against stock risk. If we look ahead at the deficits, there could definitely be another inflationary episode. If that is the case, ask yourself, “Do I want to hold real assets, or do I want to hold paper assets?” The answer to this question is one of the reasons why those yields have gone up. In all honesty, I think inflation is on its way down right now, and in the long run, it’s stocks that will be the best long-term hedges. So, if you’re planning a long-term retirement portfolio, stocks do beautifully against inflation. Bonds do not. I think people forget we had 40 years — from 1980, when we came down after Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker’s guidance, until the 2020 pandemic — where we didn’t have an inflationary episode. That’s one reason why bonds kept going down in yield. People finally realized they’re great hedges against pandemics but not inflation, and people forgot about that. People think the Federal Reserve would never let inflation get this bad, but now, they’re not as confident about that going into the future. We frequently hear questions like “What if we go into a recession?” I think those soft- landing probabilities have definitely increased. Ultimately, if we have a recession, yes, I think stock prices will decrease. But one thing has always been true: They may go down in recessions, but they prove to be unbelievable buying opportunities.
You and likely many others may be wondering, “If bond yields are so high, aren’t they real competition now for stocks?”
First of all, stocks are selling for 17 times next year’s earnings. If you take out technology stocks, that number is more like 14 or 15. If you go to small caps, it’s more like 11. And I know there’s a reason, but those are very low valuations. So, in my opinion, the more critical question everyone should be asking is, “Why have bond yields risen so much?” It’s not just the Federal Reserve System. It is seeing faster growth than anyone thought. That, of course, is good for stocks. The promise of AI in the third quarter will be a really strong figure, and quite frankly, I don’t see any real weakness in it. But more importantly — and I think this is a major reason for their rise in yields — bonds have been harmed by proving to be a poor hedge against inflation. Now, bonds are great hedges against things like geopolitical risk and financial crises, but they’re very bad against something like inflation. This likely surprises many people because we simply didn’t have inflation for 40 years, so in all likelihood, they forgot. But suddenly, after the pandemic, inflation reared its ugly head. So today, when we look forward to the next 10, 15, or 20 years, people are saying, “You know what, maybe there will be more inflationary episodes. Do I really want to be in bonds?” BRIDGERIVER DECEMBER 2023 SEMINARS Dec. 5, 6 & 7, 6:30 p.m. Filippas (Shelby Township) Estate Planning, Wills & Living Trusts with Andy Kata Register today at BridgeriverLLC.com! Free dinner provided. Schedule subject to change.
If we are patient and take advantage of those opportunities, we’ll get through this and be rewarded.
-Dan Casey President, Bridgeriver Advisors
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Winter Travel Tips, Hacks, and Reminders! Make Your Journey Merry and Bright
Now that Thanksgiving is in the rearview mirror, we can turn our attention toward Christmas and New Year’s Day! Over the next few weeks, many of us will travel across the country to visit loved ones to celebrate the holidays. This is easily one of the busiest times of year for travel, as AAA estimated that more than 112 million Americans traveled during last year’s holiday season. This year looks to be equally busy. Traveling during the holidays can be hectic and frustrating. It takes planning and a little luck to ensure everything goes as smoothly as possible. You might need to deal with more traffic or longer lines at airport security, but you can make this situation easier by implementing some helpful strategies.
precheck, but there’s no guarantee it will be faster during the holidays. Your best bet is to arrive at the airport early enough to check your bags, make it through TSA, and board your flight with ease. One of the most frustrating situations any frequent flyer can experience is lost or damaged luggage. Suitcases aren’t cheap! If you ever grab your luggage from the carousel and notice it’s damaged or scuffed, do not leave the airport. Instead, go to baggage services and explain the situation. They will gather your information before directing you to a link where you can choose a new suitcase to replace the broken one. If the bag is lost, you will need to fill out a claim as well, although it will likely be a couple of weeks before the airline considers your bag truly lost. Traveling by Car For many families, it’s tradition to pack the car full of gifts and visit the grandparents for the week or a long weekend. It’s a family road trip! Driving in the winter comes with more challenges than any other time of year. Before leaving the house, pack an emergency kit to keep you and your family safe if you get caught in a blizzard. Stock your vehicle with blankets, flashlights, water bottles, basic car maintenance tools, and kitty litter to help free your car from the snow. If you get stuck, turn on your ignition every hour for 10 minutes to warm up the car, and switch on your lights for visibility. Do not get out of your vehicle to look for help! You could get lost and end up in more danger. Traveling during the holidays isn’t only stressful for the travelers but for everyone working as well. Whether you’re traveling by plane, train, or automobile, consider purchasing some treats or gifts to give to those who are working the holidays. Sharing them with your flight crew or the attendant at the terminal will bring a smile to their face and could even result in them doing something nice for you. Hotel workers, gas station attendants, and retail employees are some of the many people who work diligently throughout the holidays and could use some extra recognition.
Here are some tips to help you reach your destination with as little stress and trouble as possible, regardless of your mode of transport.
Heading to the Airport There’s no secret strategy to help you get to your terminal quicker or ensure you make your connecting flights on time. You could enroll in TSA
The holiday season is full of joy and excitement. Don’t let traveling take the fun out of your experience!
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Start a New Tradition This Christmas THINK OUTSIDE THE GIFT BOX
Christmas is built on tradition. Many families celebrate the holiday by waking up bright and early to open presents, attending church, having a delicious meal, and closing the day with “How the Grinch Stole Christmas,” “Elf,” or another Christmas classic.
to give each year. You can stuff it with Christmas pajamas, mugs, books, movies, and other small gifts you know your family or friends will love. Refill the box with different versions of these items every year. You can also do this with your friends in place of a Secret Santa gift exchange. Set a budget and draw names to determine who each person will give their box to. From there, you go to local garage sales, dollar stores, and thrift shops to fill the box with things the person will like. A Reminder of Past Christmases Do you buy a real tree every Christmas? Most of us will bring our old trees out to the curb when the holiday passes. Before you do so, cut off the very bottom of the tree trunk. Write the date on it and include any extra information you want, such as a child’s or pet’s first Christmas. After a few years, you’ll have a collection of tree trunks that help you reminisce about one of the
Some families have been doing this for so long that they’re starting to look for new traditions to throw in the mix to spice up the season a little more. There are plenty of ways to change your holiday traditions without losing the meaning of the season! You could go caroling or try out a white elephant gift exchange with the entire family. If you’re looking for something unique, try one of the following activities this year.
The Christmas Box One of the most exciting parts of Christmas is when everyone gathers to open gifts. The Christmas box gives you an opportunity to create a new tradition around gift- giving. Fill a medium or large-sized gift box with smaller items you like
happiest days of the year and all the memories you made.
TAKE A BREAK
Skillet Chicken Pot Pie
Ingredients
Directions
Inspired by TheModernProper.com
1. Heat oven to 425 F. 2. In 12-inch cast-iron skillet over medium heat, melt butter, then add onion, celery, and carrots. Sauté for 5 minutes. 3. Add flour, salt, pepper, celery seed, and garlic powder to pan and stir. Sauté for 2 minutes. Slowly incorporate milk. 4. Add stock and bring to a simmer, whisking until mixture thickens. Add peas and chicken. 5. Roll out pastry sheet into 16-inch square on floured surface. Cut into 3-inch squares and place overlapping onto chicken mixture. 6. In a small bowl, whisk egg with 1 tbsp water. Brush egg over pastry and place in oven for 25 minutes or until golden and bubbling.
• 1/2 cup butter • 1 cup chopped onion • 1 cup sliced celery • 2 cups sliced carrots • 1/2 cup flour • 1 tsp salt • 1/2 tsp pepper • 1/2 tsp celery seed • 1 tsp garlic powder • 1 cup milk • 2 cups chicken stock • 2 cups peas • 4 cups cooked chicken • 1 package frozen puff pastry, thawed • 1 egg
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INSIDE
This Issue Stocks or Bonds? Understanding the Financial Landscape
Your Ultimate Holiday Travel Guide
Fresh Traditions to Make Your Holiday Sparkle
Skillet Chicken Pot Pie
From Your Heart to Theirs: Handcrafted Christmas Cards for Loved Ones
DECK THE HALLS WITH HANDMADE CARDS 3 Easy Ideas You Can Make With Kids!
Sending Christmas cards is a great way to tell people you’re thinking of them during the holiday season. However, like everything lately, buying enough Christmas cards for your loved ones is expensive. Store-bought cards can also feel too stiff and formal for our friends and family. That’s why you should consider making Christmas cards this holiday season! It is more cost-effective and a great way to give your cards a personal touch that lets friends and family know you care. The best part is that making holiday cards doesn’t have to be laborious or stressful — it’s quick, easy, and fun! Don’t believe us? Check out these three easy Christmas cards you and your family can make at home. Each card idea is built upon plain white cards! Washi Tape Cards All you need for this card is a roll of washi tape with any design you wish. Simply cut strips of the washi tape, starting with a longer piece (about 2—3 inches), and place it horizontally across the card near the bottom.
Then, build upward using gradually smaller pieces of tape to make a triangle — and that’s it! You’ve successfully created a washi tape tree! You can also draw a tree stump under the longest strip or a star on top. Handprint Cards This Christmas card variation is a favorite for kids to make and family members to receive. Have your child place their hand on the blank card stock and trace their hand with a pencil. Then, cut out the shape of their hand using scissors. Finally, with the cut-out hand facing down (fingers to the ground), have your child decorate it as if it were a tree, drawing ornaments, lights, candy canes, or other decorations. Pipe Cleaner Cards For this card, you need green pipe cleaners and gold stars (like the ones you’d earn in school). Simply twist a pipe cleaner into a tree shape using a zig-zag pattern to form the widest branches at the bottom to the smallest boughs at the top. Glue the pipe cleaner to the card. Finish with a gold star as a tree topper!
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