American Consequences - October 2019

S&P 500 Bear Markets Since 1940

-19.8%

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

-24.1%

-19.0%

-15.8%

-27.9%

-51.8%

-20.3%

500

-34.7%

-12.8%

-32.1%

-27.0%

In simple terms, if the market drops far, fast... or takes a lesser decline over a sustained period, then we’ll call that a bear market worth preparing for.

-23.3%

-39.7%

-23.0% -19.4%

-32.5%

1955 1950 1945

1965 1960

1970

1975

1985 1980

1995 1990

2015 2010 2005 2000

Ned Davis Research definition of bear market. Calculations on S&P 500 by Retirement Millionaire. Data source: Bloomberg

Bull Markets

Bear Markets

START

END

DAYS TOTAL RETURN

START

END

DAYS TOTAL RETURN

6/10/40

11/7/40

150

23.2%

11/7/40

4/28/42

537

-32.5% -23.0% -19.4% -27.0% -23.3%

4/28/42

5/29/46

1,492

128.7% 218.5%

5/29/46

5/19/47

355 446

5/19/47

8/2/56

3,363

8/2/56

10/22/57

10/22/57

12/12/61

1,512

74.9%

12/12/61

6/26/62

196

6/26/62

2/9/66

1,324

105.3% 42.2% 84.0% 132.9% 337.0%

2/9/66

10/7/66

240 543 630 622

10/7/66

11/29/68

784

11/29/68

5/26/70 10/3/74 8/12/82 12/4/87 10/11/90

-32.1%

5/26/70 10/3/74 8/12/82 12/4/87 10/11/90

1/11/73

961

1/11/73

-39.7%

11/28/80

2,248

11/28/80

-12.8%

8/25/87

1,839

8/25/87

101

-34.7% -20.3% -19.0% -24.1% -27.9% -51.8% -15.8% -19.8% -26.5% -23.7%

7/16/90 7/17/98 3/24/00

955

88.7%

7/16/90 7/17/98 3/24/00

87

2,836

383.8%

8/31/98

45

8/31/98

571

51.2%

9/21/01

546 278 517 157

9/21/01

1/4/02

105

25.3% 117.7% 107.4%

1/4/02

10/9/02 3/9/09 10/3/11 12/24/18

10/9/02 3/9/09 10/3/11 12/24/18

10/9/07

1,826

10/9/07

4/29/11

781

4/29/11

9/20/18

2,544

197.7%

9/20/18

95

?

AVERAGE

337

AVERAGE

1,456 1,408

132.4% 106.4%

MEDIAN

317

MEDIAN

American Consequences

23

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