S&P 500 Bear Markets Since 1940
-19.8%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
-24.1%
-19.0%
-15.8%
-27.9%
-51.8%
-20.3%
500
-34.7%
-12.8%
-32.1%
-27.0%
In simple terms, if the market drops far, fast... or takes a lesser decline over a sustained period, then we’ll call that a bear market worth preparing for.
-23.3%
-39.7%
-23.0% -19.4%
-32.5%
1955 1950 1945
1965 1960
1970
1975
1985 1980
1995 1990
2015 2010 2005 2000
Ned Davis Research definition of bear market. Calculations on S&P 500 by Retirement Millionaire. Data source: Bloomberg
Bull Markets
Bear Markets
START
END
DAYS TOTAL RETURN
START
END
DAYS TOTAL RETURN
6/10/40
11/7/40
150
23.2%
11/7/40
4/28/42
537
-32.5% -23.0% -19.4% -27.0% -23.3%
4/28/42
5/29/46
1,492
128.7% 218.5%
5/29/46
5/19/47
355 446
5/19/47
8/2/56
3,363
8/2/56
10/22/57
10/22/57
12/12/61
1,512
74.9%
12/12/61
6/26/62
196
6/26/62
2/9/66
1,324
105.3% 42.2% 84.0% 132.9% 337.0%
2/9/66
10/7/66
240 543 630 622
10/7/66
11/29/68
784
11/29/68
5/26/70 10/3/74 8/12/82 12/4/87 10/11/90
-32.1%
5/26/70 10/3/74 8/12/82 12/4/87 10/11/90
1/11/73
961
1/11/73
-39.7%
11/28/80
2,248
11/28/80
-12.8%
8/25/87
1,839
8/25/87
101
-34.7% -20.3% -19.0% -24.1% -27.9% -51.8% -15.8% -19.8% -26.5% -23.7%
7/16/90 7/17/98 3/24/00
955
88.7%
7/16/90 7/17/98 3/24/00
87
2,836
383.8%
8/31/98
45
8/31/98
571
51.2%
9/21/01
546 278 517 157
9/21/01
1/4/02
105
25.3% 117.7% 107.4%
1/4/02
10/9/02 3/9/09 10/3/11 12/24/18
10/9/02 3/9/09 10/3/11 12/24/18
10/9/07
1,826
10/9/07
4/29/11
781
4/29/11
9/20/18
2,544
197.7%
9/20/18
95
?
AVERAGE
337
AVERAGE
1,456 1,408
132.4% 106.4%
MEDIAN
317
MEDIAN
American Consequences
23
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