A7 2020年4月16日
疫情前沿
责任编辑：孙卓然
Here's what Alberta's coronavirus curve is projected to look like By Chandler Walter
The probable scenario, according to Kenney, projects as many as 800,000 infections and between 400 and 3,100 deaths in Alberta by the end of the summer, with the peak of infections hitting around mid-May. The elevated scenario would see a peak of infections by the start of May, with up to one million cases resulting in between 500 and 6,600 deaths.
Premier Jason Kenney addressed Albertans in a televised state- ment at 6 pm on Tuesday to announce Alberta Health’s projec- tions on how hard coronavirus is expected to hit the province. He said that they created two models: a probable scenario, and an elevated scenario.
Kenney followed up with an in-depth presentation of the pro- jections on Wednesday, which made a number of graphs and charts public. He started by showing how Alberta stacked up to other provinces in Canada and compared to countries through- out the world.
No return to‘normality’until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says By Beatrice Britneff
Canadians won’t be able to return to life as they knew it before the novel coronavirus pandemic until a vaccine is available, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday. “Normality as it was before will not come back full-on until we get a vaccine for this… That will be a very long way off,”the prime minister said during his daily news conference on Canada’ s response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Trudeau’s comments came just after the release of modelling data that federal health officials have been using to inform Cana- da’s response to the pandemic. The models suggested the first wave of the virus could end roughly sometime in the summer, but that further“wavelets” are possible in the following months.
Epidemic controls and surveillance will have to continue over that time so“the chains”of the virus don’t“reignite,”said Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer. Even then,“there will be things we just aren’t able to do”for a year to 18 months, he added in French. The prime minister urged Canadians once again to stay at home and limit their trips outside so the country can get through the first wave of the virus“as quickly as possible.” While it’s unclear what extended epidemic controls would look like in Canada at this point, analysis by Harvard researchers, re- leased March 27 ahead of peer review, suggested that multiple “intermittent”periods of physical distancing might be a more ef- fective strategy for saving lives than continuing with“strict”dis-
tancing measures. Health officials still aren’t sure where Canada is on the epidemic curve and won’t know when the virus has peaked until after that’s happened, Tam said. The possible pandemic scenarios are“very sensitive”to people’s actions, the country’s top doctor underscored. If Canada keeps strong epidemic control measures in place, be- tween 11,000 and 22,000 people could die over the course of the pandemic — the best-case scenario for the country, the fed- eral projections released Thursday suggest. The number of possible deaths due to COVID-19 would surge into the hundreds of thousands if 25 per cent or more of the population is infected, according to the models.
RCMP says it'll enforce Quarantine Act if people don't self-isolate By The Canadian Press
The RCMP is reminding Ca- nadians they could be arrested if they violate the Quarantine Act, while Prime Minister Trudeau hinted Friday that rules could be loosened this summer if Canadians act now to contain the spread of COV- ID-19. The police force says it has been asked to assist in enforc- ing the act amid the pandemic. Officers could visit homes to ensure anyone entering Canada is self- isolating for 14 days,
and police can now make ar- rests, rather than issue a court appearance notice or summons. The RCMP says arrests under the act, violations of which could include a fine of up to $750,000 and imprisonment for six months, will be a last resort. On Friday, Trudeau said he is not planning to invoke the Emergencies Act, which would give the federal government sweeping powers. House of Commons will sit
Saturday to debate wage subsi- dy bill Government documents reveal a slow start to Canada's COV- ID-19 response The prime minister reminded Canadians that vigilance against future outbreaks will be the norm for the next 12 to 18 months until a vaccine is de- veloped, but hinted that regu- latory changes could bring re- lief in the summer if people stay strong and stay home for the time being to save lives.
"If we do things right, this will be the first and worst phase that we go through as a coun- try in terms of COVID- 19," Trudeau said. "It is possible we may be out of that wave this summer, and at that point we will be able to talk about loosening up some the rules that are in place." He said some people may be able to return to work to "get things rolling again," though those changes will require a cautious approach.
How to celebrate Easter and Passover during the pandemic. Your COVID-19 questions answered By AmilNiazi
care system to cope. But Tam warned during the Easter and Passover weekend, "we need to not let down our guard. The safest plan for your holidays is a staycation for the nation." Here are more answers to questions about physical distancing Can my family meet up at the farm yard, and picnic together? Barry H's is wondering whether he can mark Easter with his loved ones if they meet outside. Unfortunately any religious celebrations this year will have to be "strictly limited to your existing household members only," says Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada's deputy chief public health officer. Got questions about physical distancing? Here's what you need to know He says staying home and physical distancing is making a difference. And he cautions that, "during important religious services we must not let our guard down." So unless you already share a household, do not have family over, even to picnic in the yard. But do reach out to each other over phone, text or video chat. As Njoo says, "connecting has never been so important."
Can I take a home- cooked turkey dinner to my parents and in-laws this weekend? Like Darlene, many Canadians are hoping they can still share food with loved ones. While one recent study suggests the coronavi- rus persists on many surfaces, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency says "there is current- ly no evidence that food is a likely source or route of transmission." The bigger concern is how the food is delivered, says infectious dis- ease specialist Dr. LynoraSaxinger in Edmon- ton. CBC EXPLAINSHow to self- isolate during the coronavirus crisis "To me, it's all about the plating and the han- dling of the packaging, not the food itself," she said, since the virus is more likely live on those surfaces, if at all. Keeping the faith during the pandemic One in five Canadians say they or someone close to them have been supported by a faith institution since the outbreak began, according to a new Angus Reid Institute survey. Maybe that's why virtual services including online mass, Zoom prayer groups and religious apps are the most popular way to connect during the pandemic, according to the survey.
Can we have another couple over for Easter dinner if they and we are in good health? Anne C. is wondering, "if everyone seems healthy, can we still get together for dinner?"
Avoiding crowded places and gatherings. Trying to avoid getting too close anyone else, and when you do leave your house — a mini- mum of two metres or two arms' lengths is generally recommended in Canada and re- quired by some city bylaws. The good news is that it seems to be working. Canada's chief public health officer Dr. There- sa Tam says all these efforts "are making a dif- ference so far," because it's allowing the health-
The short answer is, no. Physical distancing means:
Not interacting with anyone outside your household, including immediate family mem- bers and significant others who don't live with you.
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