SF Market Report January 2026

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index* By Month since January 2000

April 2025

450

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading in November 2025 ticked up slightly. It has plummeted since April’s tariff shock, though remains elevated by long-term norms.

Tariff shock ►

400

Pandemic hits

The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*

350

300

250

Dec. 2025

Dotcom crash & 9/11

200

150

Subprime crash & great recession

100

2025

Updated through December 2025

50

*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3- component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html. Data from sources deemed reliable, but numbers to be considered approximate and subject to revision.

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