the IEC candidate list inform us that the number of young candidates for parliament from the ANC’s 160 seats is 18, followed by the DA, which has 11 young potential members of parliament. The other political parties predicted to secure seats for young candidates in the national assembly are the EFF (6), MK (2), IFP (1) and the Patriotic Alliance (1). According to the IEC’s candidate list, the youngest member of the forthcoming National Assembly is 23 years of age, and they are a member of the DA. The methodology I used to determine the number of women who will constitute the incoming national assembly has flaws because it depended on one’s interpretation of the sex of the candidates based on names. The accuracy of the following predictions can only be confirmed once a more rigorous process is followed. However, in the interim, we can predict that South Africa will be backsliding on gender parity in political leadership largely because we do not have a legislated gender quota system. Based on the method I used to predict women’s representation in parliament, it seems that South Africa’s performance in terms of gender parity in parliament will drop from 47.70% of women in the 2019 cycle to around 33.3% in 2024. The political parties that are sending a relatively higher number of women candidates to parliament are the ANC with roughly 66 candidates, the DA will probably send 29 candidates and the EFF will send 18 out of 39 seats. If the DA had a 50% gender quota rule, we would be guaranteed 15 more women in parliament. The MK’s candidate list indicates 14 women will be in parliament. The IFP and PA will each have 5 or 6 female MPs if the CSIR predictions are accurate. The other parties will be sending only 1 female representative in parliament. These parties are VFP (1 out of 6 seats), Action SA (1 out of 5 seats), UDM (1 out of 3 seats), BOSA, RISE Mzansi and ATM will each send 1 female candidate out of the predicted 2 seat allocation for each party. This brings us to a saddening probability of 135 seats for women out of 400 thus the predicted 33% gender parity for women in parliament. Most of these political parties have capable and strong female candidates and a voluntary quota approach to achieving gender equality in political leadership is not sufficient to guarantee gender parity in the political sphere. If we are committed to gender parity, as our Constitution and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals declare, it is crucial for the next parliament to propose the legislation of gender quotas in the political sphere as well as a quota for other intersectional identities for purposes of fair representation in the context of our electoral system, which is proportional representation. Substantive representation may not be guaranteed by quantitative parity but that does not disqualify the importance of demanding equal representation of women, youth and other intersectional representation in political leadership. We cannot solely rely on political parties to equalise gender representation through voluntary means, we need a legislated gender quota system with placement rules and sanctions by the IEC should future candidate lists not adhere to the proposed 50/50 law. I therefore submit that the incoming national assembly must prioritise this debate about gender parity. I hope the ANC, BOSA, PA, RISE Mzansi, ATM, EFF and Al Jama Ah will advance the call for a legislated gender quota system because they have already exhibited commitment to women’s representation in their top 10s.
IF WE ARE COMMITTED TO GENDER PARITY, AS OUR CONSTITUTION AND THE UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS DECLARE, IT IS CRUCIAL FOR THE NEXT PARLIAMENT TO PROPOSE THE LEGISLATION OF GENDER QUOTAS IN THE POLITICAL
SPHERE AS WELL AS A QUOTA FOR OTHER INTERSECTIONAL
IDENTITIES FOR PURPOSES OF FAIR REPRESENTATION IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR ELECTORAL SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION.
The ANC and the DA are leading other political parties in terms of the number of candidates below the age of 35. This means we shall have 39 young members of parliament represent South Africans if the CSIR predictions are accurate. This figure should at least be higher if we aim for a relatively fair representation of youth in leadership. The political party that had the opportunity to bring a significant number of young people in parliament is the ANC, but it didn’t. It’s conceptualisation of renewal should extend to commitment to changing leadership and having more young people in parliament as well as cabinet. Now, CSIR predictions and
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