The looming post-Trump scramble: An insight into the 2028 Republican primaries by Alexandros Dimopoulos, Year 13
connections. In response to a Mediaite news- story wherein a supposed Trump-family friend claimed Don Jr wanted to run, he reaffirmed his commitment to Vance and called the claim “b*llshit”. It would make more sense for him to run further down the line to avoid the stigma of betrayal.
a high likelihood of spilling into civil war would ensue. The likelihood, therefore, that Trump will try to run for a third term is low. His movement would be much easier preserved if he were to sim- ply let an ally run. Trump has teased about running for a third term, such as in January 2025, when he talked about serving “three or four times”, before clarifying that this was “for the fake news”. There is no point in making much of Trump’s statements as by nature consciously exaggerates. One can point to his July 2024 claim that he would end the Russia–Ukraine conflict in one day — after a term as President he would surely know of its impossibility. The logical next step for Trump would be to en- dorse an ally in the primaries given the risk of leaving the field open. A split vote and infighting would increase the likelihood of a non-MAGA candidate winning. Vice President Vance is the obvious choice. In February 2025, Trump stated — in response to a question as to whether he sees Vance as successor — “No, but he’s very capable” before clarying: “It’s too early.” This is not to say that Trump won’t end up endorsing Vance come 2028. Vance is tried and tested as well as aligned to Trump’s politics in a way that Mike Pence was not. While an endorsement would help Vance, it is not a guarantee of a primary. As former House Speaker Kevin Mcarthy stated in August 2024: “There’s going to be a lot of very capable people [interested].” Though he has positive qualities, Vance has a much more moderated persona which will not provide the charisma that the MAGA movement have experienced in Trump. As of 19 April, the “Race to the WH” na- tional polling average has JD Vance at 49%, Donald Trump Jr at 18.5% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9.8% — with RFK Jr, Noem, Rubio and Haley trailing. Second-place Donald Trump Jr denies planning a run for 2028, despite being a serious contender by virtue of his familial and accumulated political
Trump by nature consciously exaggerates
Third-place Florida Governor DeSantis was at the peak of his career, motivating him to run in the 2024 primaries wherein he was humiliated by Trump despite leading in certain early polls. With his Governorship ending in 2026, by the time the Republicans have another contested field his re- knowned popularity as Governor will have faded into irrelevancy. This will thus be his last shot at a position he sorely wants, though he lacks cha- risma and has a tarnished reputation among the MAGA movement given he ran against Trump. Given the MAGA movement is the most powerful constituency within the Republican Party, Vance will surely struggle against other America First candidates, such as Secretary of Homeland Se- curity and former South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and Texas Senator Ted Cruz who have the reckless personas it takes to do such a thing. On the other hand, moderate and compromising Republicans will struggle come 2028. Haley’s success — though limited, in 2024 was a con- sequence of the electability question. After the humiliations of 2020 and the 2022 midterms, it was argued that Trumpism made the Republican Party incapable of winning and thus a moderate would be needed to reinstate electability. Trump’s sweeping 2024 victory, however, ruined the moderates’ shtick. A Trump-endorsed Vance candidacy is thus most likely — yet politics is often hard to predict as Trump proved in 2016. Vance will have to shift his rhetoric marginally rightwards in order to avoid bleeding support from the dominant constituen- cy while preserving a moderate appeal in order to minimise risk in the general election. ◎
W hen the 2028 presidential election comes around, the seemingly un- ending era of Trump will come to a close. He has bent the Republican Party to his will and influenced every single aspect of the political process — yet that page will soon be turn- ing, and another person will have to bear the torch of the Republicans. There has been talk of Trump running again for a third term. This is a fear spread by the fiercest of Trump critics and a scenario wished by MAGA loyalists. Given Trump will have already served two terms, a third term is unconstitutional as per the 1951 22nd Amendment, which states: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”. Some argue there’s a loophole, claiming the amendment only prohibits three consecutive terms, with Trump having rather served two non- consecutive terms. However, the amendment makes the clarification that it doesn’t apply to sitting presidents and that an exemption can be made for VPs who have taken over for a period of less than two years. Given Congress’s intention was to have specificity, wouldn’t it thus follow that they would mention an exemption regarding non-consecutive terms if it were their position? However, the Supreme Court — with the power to strike down a third term — carries the tarnished reputation of partisanship and conservatism given its 6–3 Republican to Democrat split. Many will thus reckon that they would be willingly dishonest and thus interpret the 22nd Amendment to permit a non-consecutive third term. However, this com-
mon trope is inaccurate. Despite superficially consisting of six conservatives (three of which were appointed by Trump) and three liberals, varying verdicts over time (e.g. Dobbs v Jackson [2022]’s undoing of Roe v. Wade [1973]) boil down to terminology whose meaning has evolved with time and carries different ideas depending on the cultural standpoint — such as the 14th Amendment’s right to “liberty” as regards to No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice national abortion rights. Given the not-so-vague nature of the 22nd Amendment, we can be sure that the Supreme Court would strike any attempt down. Precedent for the conservative Court going against Trump is plentiful. On 19 March 2025, the justices voted 7–2 against a Trump executive order to deport Venezuelan nationals in Texas without due process. Aside from the Supreme Court, Congress re- voking the amendment is the only remaining legal route. However, as outlined in Article 5 of the Constitution, two-thirds of both the Houses of Congress and three-quarters of the States would need to approve of it. The Republicans simply do not — and will never — have enough control. If Trump ultimately decided to subvert the legal route, a political firestorm with
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