Here’s a closer look at the eight swing states that will decide the 2020 election:
Arizona In Arizona, Donald Trump’s handling of the pandemic is proving costly, leaving him struggling to match his 2016 performance among those over the age of 65. October polling shows Biden is chipping away at Trump’s support among older white voters, especially among the once reliably Republican senior population in populous Maricopa County. — Laura Barrón-López ELECTORAL VOTES: 11 RECENT POLL: D+2 2016 VOTE: R+4 Florida Republicans typically hold a slight edge in absentee ballot returns in Florida elections. But this year, for the first time ever at this stage of a general election, Democrats here are outvoting Republicans -- and by a huge margin. The unprecedented early voting numbers have electrified Democrats, but campaign veterans warn that a wave of Republican votes is coming on Election Day. — Marc Caputo ELECTORAL VOTES: 29 RECENT POLL: D+3 2016 VOTE: R+1 Georgia Most of the attention in Georgia this year is directed toward Atlanta’s populous suburbs, which have turned hard against Republicans in the Trump era, But the outcome might come down to a less scrutinized force in this state: white rural voters. And Donald Trump has room to grow his support there. — Elena Schneider ELECTORAL VOTES: 16 RECENT POLL: R<1 2016 VOTE: R+5 Michigan All three Rust Belt states that Trump improbably won in 2016 – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- are problematic for the president this year. But Michigan is where things look bleakest. His support has diminished among the white working-class. Black turnout appears certain to rebound after a dismal showing in 2016. New laws that allow for early voting and no-excuse-absentee balloting are expected to push voter participation to historic levels, with Democrats the expected beneficiary of low-propensity Michiganders flooding the ballot box. — Tim Alberta ELECTORAL VOTES: 16 RECENT POLL: D+6 2016 VOTE: R+0 Minnesota Donald Trump has fixated on Minnesota since his narrow loss to Hillary Clinton there four years ago. But he’s not running as well with white voters and independents as in 2016. And with less than a month until the election, his prospects are dimming. — David Siders ELECTORAL VOTES: 10 RECENT POLL: D+9 2016 VOTE: d+2
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