WORKPLACE SAFETY
PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
2025 PREDICTIONS RECAP
We’ll See a Business-Friendly Enforcement Approach New leadership will mean a new day for employers. Now that David Keeling is in place as the new head of OSHA, we predict the new administration will take more of a cooperative approach with employers compared to the prior administration. Wayne Palmer has also been confirmed to lead MSHA, where we expect similar efforts to increase outreach to industry to begin. Some specific examples: • We predict OSHA will issue few, if any, press releases after an employer is cited for safety violations. • We also expect fewer regulations to be proposed or promulgated. • Thanks to reduced staffing at OSHA (and a White House request to lawmakers to cut roughly 12% of OSHA’s employees), we’ll see fewer inspections, especially programmed inspections. However, certain types of inspections will still occur, such as fatalities, hospitalizations, and amputations. Continued Push to Cut ‘Red Tape’ We expect OSHA to move forward on the proposed deregulation efforts it announced this past year – putting parameters around the general duty clause and changes to the respiratory protection requirements. Specifically, we expect federal OSHA to issue a heat regulation, but something more performance-based and less prescriptive. We also expect some movement on workplace violence in healthcare and social services industries.
Trump’s DOGE initiative – which has since fizzled out – did reportedly lead to staff reductions at the DOL as we predicted, as well as the closure of several OSHA and MSHA field offices. However, several MSHA office leases were eventually restored, according to news outlets, and dozens of staffers were brought back after opting into DOGE’s buyout program aimed at reducing the size of the federal government earlier in the year. DOGE Made Cuts to OSHA – But Impact Was Minimal We were spot on with our prediction that new Trump leadership at OSHA would look to roll back rules issued during the previous administration. As we expected with Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, OSHA moved forward with the rulemaking process on its heat standard, holding a summer public hearing on the potential standard and collecting comments from the public. OSHA was also at the forefront of the Trump administration’s deregulatory push at the DOL, with the agency advancing more than 20 initiatives to put limits on certain enforcement powers, reduce regulatory requirements, and streamline standards. Trump’s OSHA Scaled Back Biden-Era Safety Rules Employers and advocacy groups have used the high court’s ruling in SEC v. Jarkesy , which narrowly limited how agencies can use administrative law judges, to attack OSHA’s use of internal ALJs. But so far, most of those challenges to take cases out (subscription required) of OSHA’s authority and have them heard before a full judge and jury have been unsuccessful (subscription required). This will continue to be an active area to watch in 2026. SCOTUS Decisions Haven’t Fully Transformed Workplace Safety and Mine Safety – Yet
State Plans Likely to Beef Up Enforcement in Response With the anticipated changes at the federal level, we expect certain state OSHA plans will head in the opposite direction with more regulations and aggressive enforcement. We also expect to see continued efforts by local prosecutors in certain jurisdictions pursing criminal investigations/prosecutions related to workplace deaths, even without federal OSHA making any referrals.
Kristin R.B. White Denver Partner, Co-Chair
OUR PREDICTIONS WERE SOMEWHAT RIGHT
HOW DID WE DO?
Todd B. Logsdon Louisville Partner, Co-Chair
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