GOVERNMENT RELATIONS
PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
2025 PREDICTIONS RECAP
Democrats Will (Probably) Retake the House… We expect the Democrats to retake the House based on the conventional wisdom that the party in power loses seats in Congress during a midterm election cycle. But we’re hedging our bets because of multiple statewide redistricting efforts that could throw a wrench into things – and a pending SCOTUS case that could overturn the Voting Rights Act and boost the GOP’s odds of maintaining control. What started with Texas lawmakers taking the unprecedented step of redrawing the state’s congressional maps midcycle has now spread to a handful of other states and is expected to continue into 2026. Beyond Texas and California, we’re keeping our eyes on North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Utah, Florida, Kansas, Maryland, Indiana, and Virginia. …and Republicans Will (Probably) Maintain the Senate We also expect Republicans to maintain control of the Senate, even if Democrats overperform the electorate
Initial Shock Over Labor Department Leader Nomination Waned
President Trump’s selection of Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor surprised many DOL watchers given her past support of the union-friendly PRO Act. However, we correctly predicted that any concerns about her ties to organized labor would be brushed aside once she got to work. As expected, Chavez-DeRemer has backed Trump’s agenda, reversing her previous stances supporting programs like Job Corps and backing his concerns about data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics being inaccurate. She has spent most of her tenure on the road as part of an “America at Work” tour, promoting the administration’s policies and visiting various training facilities and worksites across the country. While Republicans captured back the White House and the Senate and retained a House majority, we accurately predicted that conservatives wouldn’t have the easiest time advancing their Congressional wish list. Take for example cutting federal spending. Disagreements over funding the government for 2026 led to the longest shutdown in history. And despite efforts to pass a federal ban on state AI legislation, lawmakers ultimately rejected the proposal – mostly due to disagreement within the GOP. Republican Trifecta Didn’t Lead to Many Congressional Gains As we correctly predicted, Republicans were able to pass a fair number of business-friendly initiatives through the Budget Reconciliation process, an expedited way to pass legislation dealing with spending. Lawmakers advanced two major campaign policies promoted by the president – reducing tax burdens on OT and tipped pay – but largely because the more- populist effort garnered support from Democrats as well. Administration Used Procedural Weapons
as they did in 2025. With few pickup opportunities and a handful of open seats, Democrats have an uphill battle. While the GOP is defending more seats, the majority of those are rated “Safe Republican” according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Key Senate races to watch include North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio. 2026 Will Be a Continuation of 2025… With an Emphasis on Speed The second Trump administration has been operating at a breakneck pace and there are no signs of that changing next year, especially with control of Congress on the line. The White House is aware that their agenda would face additional roadblocks if they were to lose control of either the House or the Senate, so there will be concerted effort to move forward with the president’s priorities as soon as possible. This includes confirming judges to benches across the country (and potentially the Supreme Court if Justices Thomas or Alito retires), continued deportation efforts (especially given ICE’s boosted budged), and reducing the size of the federal government.
Benjamin M. Ebbink Sacramento/Washington, D.C. Partner, Co-Chair
Rick Grimaldi Philadelphia/Washington, D.C.
New Jersey/Cleveland Partner, Co-Chair
OUR PREDICTIONS WERE CORRECT
HOW DID WE DO?
Braden Lawes Washington, D.C. Senior Government Affairs Analyst
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